For the New York Jets, to lose to the San Francisco 49ers was expected.
But now, it’s time for the Jets to erase the bitter taste from the game. Starting 0-2 would be at least highly concerning if not downright disastrous. The Titans may seem like an easy opponent, but after the way the Jets lost in Week 1, they cannot overlook Tennessee.
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Specifically, the Titans match up well against the Jets in two important areas on offense and defense: the run game. The Jets struggled mightily in that area on both sides of the ball in Week 1 while Tennessee played very well.
Losing Derrick Henry did not seem to affect the Titans. They rushed for 140 yards on 26 attempts (5.4 yards per attempt). The running backs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, ran 20 times for 103 yards (5.2 YPA). Pollard averaged 4.44 yards after contact per attempt, ranking fourth out of 34 backs (min. 10 carries). He also ranked ninth among backs with 0.9 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt and 11th with 0.25 missed tackles forced per carry.
This may have been an aberration. After all, Pollard had 2.92 yards after contact per attempt in 2023, ranking 19th out of 41 qualified backs. His -0.2 RYOE per attempt ranked 27th. Still, the Week 1 performance was not completely new for him, as his 2022 stat line included 1.2 RYOE per attempt (2nd) and 3.82 yards after contact per attempt (1st).
Pollard and the Titans put up these numbers despite poor run-blocking. They ranked 23rd in that area with a teamwide Pro Football Focus grade of 63.1. However, the Titans’ first-round pick, J.C. Latham, posted an 82.6 run-blocking grade. Furthermore, Pollard had 10 gap runs vs. 6 zone runs, and the Jets’ run defense is notorious for struggling against gap concepts (although San Francisco beat them primarily with outside zone). The Titans also have an offensive line coach in Bill Callahan with a long-term reputation of excellent play, which means improvement is likely.
Meanwhile, the Jets were manhandled in the run game in Week 1 even without Christian McCaffrey on the field. Jordan Mason pounded the ball 28 times for 147 yards (5.3 YPA) and ranked eighth with 0.32 missed tackles forced per carry. Only 16.3% of his yardage came on breakaways (15+ yards), which shows how consistently Mason gashed the Jets’ defense as opposed to one or two explosive plays.
The Jets’ subpar tackling made matters worse. All told, they missed 10 tackles in the run game. That does not bode well against a running back who thrived on yards after contact in Week 1.
On the run defense end, the Titans kept up their strong play from last season. After allowing 3.8 yards per carry in 2023, they followed that up with 3.8 yards per carry again in Week 1. Although the individual run defense grades were mostly not great, rookie defense tackle T’Vondre Sweat ranked 21st out of 79 qualified interior defensive tackles (64.2). According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they also ranked the sixth-best in expected yards per carry (4.0), showing that the run defense clogged up lanes early.
The Jets’ run game struggles were overshadowed by their defensive woes, but what was supposedly the strength of the offense turned into a major weakness. Breece Hall had -10 yards before contact, and his seventh-ranked 3.56 yards after contact per attempt allowed him to gain 3.4 yards per attempt rather than an even worse stat line.
The run-blocking was particularly putrid. Joe Tippmann, John Simpson, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Morgan Moses ranked in the 9th, 35th, 31st, and 17th percentile, respectively, in PFF run-blocking grade. This was supposed to be the strength of the Jets’ offense, but it was a major weakness in Week 1 and perhaps the primary reason the Jets could not sustain drives. Against a 49ers run defense with three extremely subpar defensive linemen and poor run defense numbers up the middle in 2023, the offensive line laid an egg.
Do not overlook the Titans. They have the potential to replicate the 49ers’ success against the Jets. If the Jets cannot run the football or stop the run, the recipe for an upset could be there.
