One New York Jets issue from 2023 showed up big-time in their first game of 2024. It wasn’t just fans’ imaginations; the numbers back it up, perhaps in a slightly different way than expected.
The Jets’ offensive game plan against the 49ers was to establish the run. It made sense for several reasons: the 49ers were notoriously leaky on the ground last year, it was Aaron Rodgers’ first game back after his Achilles tear, and the Jets wanted to keep the ball out of the hands of the 49ers’ explosive offense.
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However, it was evident pretty quickly that the run game was not working. In the past, Jets fans criticized Mike LaFleur for abandoning the run too quickly. But in this game, against this offense, it was critical to maintain possession. The Jets just couldn’t do it, and continuing to run the ball was a big reason why.
It wasn’t even the first down running that was the biggest issue. When their win probability was between 5% and 95% (essentially non-garbage time), the Jets ran the ball on 45.5% of their first downs, the NFL’s fourth-lowest mark in those situations. Their 36.4% success rate on those carries ranked 22nd, but a below-average success rate on a well below-average run rate is not the end of the world.
The bigger problem was second down. In those same 5-95% situations on second down, the Jets ran the ball 75% of the time. That was the highest mark of any team in Week 1. (This trend holds when adjusting the win probability interval.) Couple that with a third-worst 12.5% success rate on second down, and it’s no wonder 24% of their offensive plays were third downs (10th-worst).
Furthermore, the Jets’ average yards to go on their second down runs was 7.0, tied for the 10th-longest in the NFL. That means the Jets were often running on second and seven or longer. Their third downs averaged 5.8 yards to go (sixth-best), but that shows how poorly the Jets performed on second down. A team cannot sustain drives that way.
It’s reasonable for the Jets to expect their run game to improve going forward. At least four (if not all five) of their offensive linemen have a history of above-average run-blocking. Regardless, after a three-yard gain on first down, especially via the run, running again is not a recipe for success.
Against San Francisco, the Jets could have tried to use their short passing and screen game to replace their ineffective run game. They never attempted a pass play of under five air yards on second down when Rodgers was in the game. This was despite the fact that San Francisco ran the eighth-highest rate of two-high coverages (51.6%). They played the seventh-most Cover 4 (25.8%).
Essentially, after the Jets’ first touchdown drive, the 49ers sat back in soft coverage, even when the game was still close. That alone should have made it easier for the Jets to get their short passing game going. Instead, they favored the run, especially on second down.
Perhaps part of this was on Rodgers. He saw the soft looks and thought the Jets should be able to run into them. Maybe he also needs to adjust his mindset if he sees the run game not working. But Nathaniel Hackett’s conservative play-calling was evident last season, increasing the likelihood Hackett was responsible for the majority of those calls.
The Titans have a better run defense than many would give them credit for. Jeffery Simmons has been a plus run defender for most of his career, and rookie T’Vondre Sweat showed promise. Teams have mustered just 3.8 yards per carry against Tennessee over their last 18 games, and they ranked 10th in run defense DVOA in 2023.
Therefore, it is certainly possible the Jets will get off to another bad start in the run game. They hope their run-blocking improves in Week 2, but they’re facing a better run defense than San Francisco’s. They must get out of the stubborn mentality of establishing the run even when it is not working, particularly on second down when avoiding third down is key.
Many things went wrong for the Jets in Week 1, but this one is completely within their control. It is up to Hackett and Rodgers to make the proper adjustments.
