Through the first two weeks, the New York Jets’ passing offense seemed to be funneled through Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Of Rodgers’ 51 pass attempts, 29 (56.9%) went to those two players. Allen Lazard ate up a decent target share with nine, but starting tight end Tyler Conklin (3) placed behind Braelon Allen (4) and tied with Jeremy Ruckert for fifth in target share.
Seeing Conklin so low down on the totem pole was somewhat disconcerting for Jets fans. After all the attention Wilson garnered last season and continues to draw, the Jets need more than Hall as their alternative. With Mike Williams still working his way back to full strength, Conklin seemed to be the next most talented pass-catcher in the offense.
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In Week 3, though, Conklin exploded on the scene. He caught five of six targets for a career-best 93 yards, including 46 yards after catch. He tied with Wilson for the team lead in receptions and had 45 more receiving yards than the next-closest player.
Fantasy owners should not hop on the Conklin train. Jets fans, however, should be highly encouraged by this performance from their No. 1 tight end — for more than one reason.
One of the many misconceptions surrounding Rodgers is that he has targeted tight ends often throughout his career. That is not necessarily the case. In 2023, the median target number for a starting tight end was 72. The Packers’ starting tight end had at least that many targets just twice in Rodgers’ final eight full seasons there. In two seasons, he targeted his starting tight end fewer than 45 times.
The entire concept of Rodgers preferring tight ends came from Robert Tonyan’s 11 receiving touchdowns in 2020. Rodgers has had others with high touchdown totals (Jermichael Finley had eight in 2011 and Richard Rodgers had eight in 2015), but outside that, from 2010-22, no other tight end caught more than three touchdowns from Rodgers in a season. That includes those three tight ends in their other seasons playing with Rodgers.
In other words, Rodgers has occasional seasons where he targets his tight ends a reasonable amount. Sometimes he chooses to do so primarily in the end zone. But overall, in his career, he has not necessarily been one to spray targets toward the position.
The reason for that, at least in more recent seasons, is his general aversion toward throwing in the middle third of the field. That’s where many interceptions happen, so he avoids it. Tight ends tend to catch many balls in the middle of the field; hence, a mismatch between passer and position. This tendency is contradictory for a passer who routinely throws with anticipation before receivers are out of their breaks, but it’s definitive.
Conklin’s biggest strengths are up the seams and on choice routes against linebackers in the middle of the field. Those do not align with Rodgers’ preferences. Therefore, Conklin’s low target rate through the first two weeks boded poorly for his role in the Jets’ offense as a whole.
However, this Patriots game showed two things: one, that Rodgers will target Conklin in that area, and two, that Rodgers trusts Conklin when the play breaks down. This is markedly different from Rodgers’ 2022 film when he did not trust his tight ends at all (with good reason).
This is what happened to Rodgers when he expected his tight end to cut the route flat but they took it upfield. It also showcases exactly why he prefers not to throw in the middle.
While this is not the exact same kind of play, watch Rodgers target Conklin on a seam route here. Although Rodgers knew from the outset that he would throw to Conklin, he kept his eyes on Garrett Wilson to widen the hook linebacker. He allowed himself a nice lane to connect with Conklin.
On this play, Conklin gave his trademark rocker step and cooked the linebacker on the in route. Rodgers hit him in stride, allowing him to gain many additional yards after the catch. Once again, Rodgers kept his eyes to the left even though he knew he was going to Conklin to keep the defense away from his throwing lane.
On two scramble drills, Rodgers hit Conklin for big gains after the tight end found open grass and presented himself to the quarterback. Rodgers’ trust is critical for any player to receive targets from him. Guess where Rodgers may look next time he’s out of the pocket? Allen Lazard is his primary comfort zone in those situations, but Conklin showed he can do it just as well.
The Jets don’t need Conklin to be Travis Kelce (or Brock Bowers). What they need from him is a steady third or fourth option in the offense. Conklin has been that for the last two seasons with the Jets, but his efficiency has been poor due to his primary usage as a dump-off option in long down-and-distance situations.
If he and Rodgers can continue to build chemistry, Conklin’s efficiency will finally draw attention to how underrated he is.
