In the New York Jets’ Thursday night win over New England, head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich did something they’ve never done before: send a blitz twice out of every five plays.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, New York sent at least five pass rushers on precisely 40% of New England’s passing plays. That set a new Saleh-Ulbrich record for the highest single-game blitz rate across the 54 games they’ve spent with the team. Their previous high was 39.4%, way back in Week 9 of the 2021 season.
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While the Jets used a blitz rate in the 30s quite often in 2021 (the duo’s first season in New York), their blitz rate stooped to unparalleled depths over the next two seasons. The Jets never went above 25% in any of their 36 games from the 2022 season opener to Week 2 of the 2024 season. Overall, they had the NFL’s lowest blitz rate in both 2022 (16.3%) and 2023 (17.4%), and over their first two games of 2024, they had the eighth-lowest blitz rate (20.6%).
So, to see the Jets blitz on 40% of their plays against New England was an unfamiliar sight. It was more than double their average rate over the past three seasons.
Of course, this newfound affinity for blitzing did not come out of nowhere. In the Jets’ previous game against Tennessee, edge rusher Jermaine Johnson suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, making the Jets’ defensive line a critically thin unit.
In the wake of Johnson’s injury, Saleh and Ulbrich adjusted admirably. Instead of sitting back and stubbornly counting on their depleted defensive line to create pressure on its own, they pumped up their usage of blitz packages to alleviate the pressure on the defensive linemen to win one-on-one.
For one game, this strategy worked wonders. The Jets finished with seven sacks, three of those coming on plays where they blitzed. Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett went 2-of-9 for 28 yards when blitzed.
The question going forward is whether the Jets’ spiked blitz rate is here to stay. Was this a one-week plan that was specifically designed for New England? Or do Saleh and Ulbrich view this as a way to navigate their lack of proven talent on the defensive line?
In my recent article praising Saleh and Ulbrich for their adjustments against New England, I hypothesized that the Jets’ blitz rate will be fluid from week to week. I do not see the Jets suddenly changing their ways and becoming a heavy-blitzing team, but I also do not see them going back to their old ways of rarely blitzing on a weekly basis. The blitz is a new weapon they can now call upon when needed.
There will be more matchups where blitzing at a high rate is the Jets’ best path to success. Now that Saleh and Ulbrich have displayed a willingness to adjust, I believe they can be trusted to use this approach once again when it makes sense. At the same time, there will be other games where it makes more sense to push their blitz rate back down to a very low number. Given that a low blitz rate is the Jets’ typical preference, they will not hesitate to do that when the time comes.
Upon first glance, the Jets’ upcoming game against rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos seems like a good week to continue blitzing. Nix is a struggling rookie quarterback (0 TD, 4 INT this season) playing on the road with a pass-catching unit that does not strike much fear into opposing defenses (Denver is 30th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade).
Is this a week where the Jets should continue sending the house at a high rate? Let’s dig into the numbers behind Nix and the Broncos’ offense to figure out the best approach for New York’s defense in this particular game.
Blitz Nix?
Bo Nix has performed poorly regardless of whether he’s been blitzed. When blitzed, Nix is averaging -0.32 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback, ranking 24th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks. When not blitzed, he is averaging a slightly better -0.24 EPA per dropback, although that ranks worse, placing 28th.
After struggling immensely in his first two games, Nix had a much-improved performance in Denver’s Week 3 road win over Tampa Bay. He completed 25 of 36 passes (career-high 69.4%) for 216 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions (his first no-pick game after tossing two in each of his first two games). He also ran nine times for 47 yards and a score.
All told, Nix ranked 14th among quarterbacks in Week 3 with 2.8 total EPA. This slightly above-average performance was an enormous improvement over his ghastly -35.8 total EPA from Weeks 1-2, which was better than only Bryce Young’s -40.2 over that span.
Nix’s improvement largely stemmed from his success when not blitzed. Nix produced 0.18 EPA per dropback when not blitzed against Tampa Bay (9th-best of Week 3), compared to -0.07 EPA per dropback when blitzed.
It’s not as if Tampa Bay did not try to blitz Nix enough. They blitzed him plenty; his 43.6% blitz rate was fourth-highest among quarterbacks in Week 3. And, as evidenced by his -0.07 EPA per dropback in those situations (slightly worse than the NFL average of -0.06 when blitzed this season), they got decent results when blitzing.
The Bucs’ problem was their lack of productivity from the four-man rush. Nix was pressured just 18.2% of the time when not blitzed, second-lowest among quarterbacks in Week 3.
Tampa Bay’s lack of a productive four-man rush is the main reason why Nix was so successful when not blitzed. He’s at his worst when pressured (12.2 passer rating when pressured this season), but the Bucs couldn’t make that happen without blitzing. In the Tampa Bay game, Nix still struggled mightily when pressured (50.0 passer rating), but that only happened on 23.1% of Nix’s dropbacks, which is an absurd number for a QB who was blitzed 43.6% of the time. When kept clean (76.9% of dropbacks), Nix had a 94.0 passer rating.
This is the Jets’ greatest fear right now. Since 2022, the Jets’ bread-and-butter has been their ability to create pressure with the four-man rush, allowing them to consistently drop seven men into coverage. But with the personnel they have up front right now, are they capable of getting consistent pressure with four?
The Jets were able to do it against New England. Brissett was pressured on 38.5% of his dropbacks when not blitzed, ranking eighth-highest among quarterbacks in Week 3. However, New England has a poor, injury-riddled offensive line. This effort might not be replicable throughout the season.
Until the Jets know they can trust their four-man rush, it makes sense for them to count on a high blitz rate. Luckily, they have the right opponent to continue doing that this week. Nix is a young quarterback who looks horrendous when pressured, but he showed against Tampa Bay that he can dice a defense up if they let him sit back in a clean pocket. The Jets cannot afford to risk failing to get pressure on Nix with the four-man rush.
Now, that’s easier said than done. As we pointed out earlier, the Bucs did blitz Nix very often, as I am suggesting the Jets should do. They even blitzed him more than the Jets blitzed Brissett. Yet, they still failed to get consistent pressure on him. While that was largely due to their poor four-man rush when they did not blitz, it was also due to their blitzes failing to get home. Nix was pressured on 29.4% of his dropbacks when blitzed, which is well below the 2024 league average of 41.1% in those situations.
Luckily, the Jets should not have to worry about having the same problem. Despite the rarity at which they’ve blitzed in recent years, they have been one of the NFL’s most efficient blitzing teams. In 2023, the Jets had the NFL’s best pressure rate when blitzing at 58.1%, and through three weeks in 2024, they remain No. 1 with an even better rate of 60.7%. Tampa Bay was only 25th in 2023 at 37.9%, so they are not as efficient of a blitzing team as the Jets (even if Todd Bowles uses it far more often).
This is an ideal week to continue sending the house. Dare Nix to beat one-on-one coverage with his low-ranked receiving unit against the Jets’ elite cornerback trio. If he can do that, so be it. But the Jets cannot get overconfident and go back to their old ways just because they are facing a struggling rookie quarterback. Nix proved last week that he can beat you if you let him stay clean. What Nix has not proven is that he can beat the blitz. Make him prove it.
A chance for the Jets’ defense to mold a new identity
In a way, the Jets’ sudden depletion of defensive line talent could turn out to be a blessing in disguise – if the coaches continue building on what they established last Thursday.
Because the Jets no longer have the talent to rarely blitz on a weekly basis and get away with it, the coaches have been forced into making adjustments they would never have made without the loss of talent, therefore creating new options for New York to tap into. Rather than rigidly sticking to the same approach every week, the coaches now have the opportunity to be malleable and adjust the game plan to whatever works best for the particular opponent each week.
Against Bo Nix and the Broncos this week, the right move is to stay around the 40% blitz rate that worked against Brissett. In future weeks, that will not be the plan.
Take the Jets’ following game against Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings, for example. Darnold has been an absolute dynamo when blitzed this season, producing 0.91 EPA per dropback (2nd to only Josh Allen). With Justin Jefferson on the outside, sending the blitz is risky, as you leave less help in the back end for Jefferson. Ask the 49ers what happened in Week 2 when they blitzed Darnold.
However, Darnold looks human when not blitzed, ranking 18th out of 31 qualifiers with -0.12 EPA per dropback. This is largely because the Vikings have a struggling offensive line, which means you do not need to blitz Darnold to pressure him. Darnold has been pressured on 39.7% of his dropbacks when not blitzed, third-highest in the NFL behind two quarterbacks the Jets have already beaten: Brissett and Will Levis.
Sitting back against Minnesota is the move. You leave extra help for Jefferson and can still get pressure. Darnold is making his money this year on plays where teams foolishly leave Jefferson one-on-one despite having no need to.
The Jets are built to do just that from a philosophical standpoint. It’s what they’ve always done. The only question is whether they have enough talent to continue doing it well.
That question will be answered as the season progresses. In the meantime, the Jets must continue being malleable to get the most out of their defense. And that does not mean abandoning the four-man rush entirely. Even in games where they blitz at a higher rate, they can continue evaluating their four-man rush on the majority of their passing plays. Once they feel confident about their four-man rush, they can open themselves back up to the option of using a low-blitzing game plan.
If the Jets’ coaching staff continues proving it is open to utilizing a high blitz rate, New York should be able to have a great defensive season regardless of what happens with the individual players. Let’s say the Jets’ four-man rush does prove to be an issue. In that case, the Jets are capable of pivoting and thriving as a heavy-blitzing team due to their elite coverage in the back end. They have the one-on-one coverage skills at cornerback and linebacker to survive when sending extra rushers.
Few teams have this luxury. For most defenses, lacking a four-man rush is a death sentence, as they cannot turn to the blitz without risking their lackluster secondary getting shredded in man-coverage situations. The Jets are not in nearly as much danger of getting punished when they blitz. They should take advantage now that their pass rush looks the way it does.
In a perfect world, the Jets will continue to see development from Will McDonald and the rest of their defensive line, allowing them to maneuver between low and high blitz rates from week to week depending on what works best for the opponent. The success of the four-man rush in the Patriots game was a great start in this endeavor, and the Jets will hope to see their defensive linemen maintain that success against more formidable offensive lines.
Right now, the most important storyline is the adaptability that was shown by New York’s defensive coaching staff last week. It is an extremely promising sign regarding the team’s ability to withstand not only the losses it has dealt with so far, but also the ones that are likely to continue piling up throughout the season.
This is a defensive coaching staff that has relied mostly on talent development rather than schematics, raising questions about their ability to adjust in dire situations. Now, it’s starting to look like Jets fans might be able to rest assured that the unit will mold itself throughout the season to account for its own strengths and weaknesses and those of the opponent.
To continue inspiring faith in their adaptability, Saleh and Ulbrich must go out on Sunday and utilize another heavy-blitzing game plan against Bo Nix.
