After failing to defeat Bo Nix at home, it might seem like the New York Jets have no shot of going overseas and taking down a 4-0 Minnesota Vikings team that has plowed through a schedule featuring multiple Super Bowl contenders.
That assumption ignores the reality of the NFL. Things change wildly from week to week in this league. There is no reason the Jets cannot dethrone an undefeated team one week after losing to a rookie quarterback who had no touchdown passes entering the game.
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If the Jets are going to pull it off, they must exploit some of the rare cracks Minnesota has shown in its armor throughout a mostly pristine 4-0 start.
Keep it close going into the 4th
I am not going to sit here and use the “start fast” cliche. Obviously, starting fast would be great for any team in any game.
What I am going to do is move the goalposts in a little bit and simply ask the Jets to focus on keeping the game close going into the fourth quarter. They do not need to come out and take a 21-0 lead to defeat the Vikings. All they need to do is stay within one score entering the final frame, and they should have a particularly good chance of pulling out the win against this specific team.
Minnesota has spent 3:32:31 with a lead this season, which is by far the best mark in the league. It is nearly an hour ahead of the second-ranked Buccaneers (2:41:18).
This is because the Vikings have started absurdly fast and gradually built upon it over the next two quarters, accumulating large leads going into the fourth quarter. Minnesota has a league-best +8.7 point differential in the first quarter, ranking second with 9.5 first-quarter points per game and first with 0.8 first-quarter points allowed per game.
Minnesota builds on that success in the second and third quarters, ultimately leading to a league-best point differential of +17.5 through three quarters. They are third in points per game through three quarters (24.3) while allowing the fewest points per game through three quarters (6.8). Basically, on average, the Vikings are up 24-7 going into the fourth – a three-score lead.
The Vikings’ tremendous leads going into the fourth quarter have allowed them to survive their struggles in the final period. Minnesota has an average fourth-quarter point differential of -3.2, ranking 21st in points per game (4.8) and 28th in points allowed per game (8.0).
Part of that is due to the team taking its foot off the gas pedal, but the Vikings have already flirted with allowing multiple double-digit comebacks.
In Week 2, the Vikings had a 20-7 lead over the 49ers entering the fourth quarter, only to get outscored 10-3 in the final period and win 23-17. Despite the Vikings’ early dominance, any single fourth-quarter play bouncing differently could have flipped the final result. For instance, there was a play early in the fourth quarter where Sam Darnold fumbled in Vikings territory while Minnesota was leading only 20-14, but it fortunately went out of bounds.
In Week 4, Minnesota was up 28-0 in Green Bay before allowing a late-second-quarter touchdown to make the halftime score 28-7. After a scoreless third quarter, the Packers outscored Minnesota 22-3 in the fourth quarter, resulting in a final score of 31-29. If not for two missed field goals by Green Bay in the first half, the Packers’ second-half comeback would have been enough to flip the result.
This is why the Jets simply need to keep it close going into the fourth quarter. The Vikings have shown they are vulnerable to ceding big leads, but their leads have been so big that it hasn’t mattered. If New York remains within one score of the Vikings going into the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers should be capable of sticking it to Minnesota fans one final time with a devastating fourth-quarter comeback.
The Jets’ defense has been excellent at closing out games, ranking second-best in the NFL with 2.8 points allowed per game in the fourth quarter. Against a Vikings offense that has slowed down late in games, New York has a favorable chance to keep Minnesota quiet in the fourth.
Therefore, if the Jets keep the game close going into the final frame, Rodgers will have a golden opportunity to make magic happen against a defense that has yielded double-digit points in two of its past three fourth quarters.
New York should build its game plan with the fourth quarter in mind. The Jets should be careful not to take gambles that would risk giving this opportunistic Vikings team a chance to quickly run away with a big lead, as they’ve done in each of their last four games. Between their takeaway-heavy defense (2nd with 10 takeaways) and their explosive Justin Jefferson-led passing attack (2nd with 8.8 yards per pass attempt), the Vikings will run up the score quickly if you give them takeaway chances on defense or explosive-play chances on offense.
That is not to say that New York should never take risks when it makes sense – by all means, take some chances when they are there – but they should control their aggressiveness and keep the long game in mind, knowing that their time to strike is the fourth quarter.
That brings us to our next key.
Dial back the blitzing
Sam Darnold has undergone a resurgence this season, and one of the main reasons has been his near-perfection against the blitz.
When blitzed this season (5+ pass rushers), Darnold has completed 18-of-20 passes for 335 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He leads the NFL in completion percentage (90.0%), passer rating (158.3), yards per attempt (16.8), success rate (73.9%), and EPA per dropback (0.98) when blitzed.
Yes, those are real numbers. The “Seeing Ghosts” Darnold is long gone.
It is not as if one or two games are ballooning these numbers. Darnold has been doing this on a weekly basis. He generated positive EPA against the blitz in all four of his starts this season. In three of his four starts, he had a 100% completion rate and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Meanwhile, the typically blitz-averse Jets defense has been experimenting with higher blitz rates since Jermaine Johnson‘s season-ending injury in Week 2. In Week 3, they blitzed the Patriots on 40% of their dropbacks, New York’s highest rate in the Robert Saleh-Jeff Ulbrich era. They followed it up with a 33% blitz rate against the Broncos in Week 4, slotting behind the Patriots game as the Jets’ second-highest rate since 2022.
The Jets have been doing this to account for their lack of pass-rush talent in the wake of Johnson’s injury, which was a smart decision. However, given Darnold’s success against the blitz, the Jets must ditch this strategy and return to their usual light-blitzing ways in London.
The Jets had the NFL’s lowest blitz rate in both 2022 (16.3%) and 2023 (17.4%). Against a Minnesota offense that has been eating blitzes alive, the Jets would be foolish not to slice their blitz rate back down to their usual neighborhood. It is their bread and butter, after all, so they are prepared to utilize that strategy from a schematic perspective.
The concern is whether New York has the talent to survive with a low blitz rate. They had the required pass-rush talent to thrive as a light-blitzing team in 2022 and 2023. Right now, their talent level on paper is much lower. Their increased blitz rate in the two games without Johnson is a sign that they are not entirely confident in their four-man rush’s ability to anchor the pass rush without the help of heavy blitzing.
The state of the Jets’ four-man rush is not completely dire, although it is not promising, either. The Jets’ four-man rush has been mediocre since losing Johnson. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets have generated a pressure rate of 27% when sending four rushers over the past two weeks, ranking 21st in the NFL over that span.
That is not a terrible mark, though. It is enough to be a better bet than the blitz against a passing attack that has essentially been perfect when blitzed.
Not to mention, the Vikings’ offensive line has struggled mightily against the four-man rush this season. Minnesota has allowed a 36.7% pressure rate against four rushers, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL. With a middle-of-the-pack Jets four-man rush against an offensive line that ranks bottom-five against the four-man rush, the Jets should be able to generate enough pressure to succeed against Darnold without blitzing.
In fact, Darnold’s alien-like performance against the blitz is entirely responsible for his stardom this season. When not blitzed, he’s still a mere mortal. Against fewer than five pass rushers, Darnold ranks 21st out of 32 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (-0.10), 26th in completion percentage (64.0%), and 21st in yards per attempt (6.9). He does still have a league-high 7 touchdown passes when not blitzed, but he also has 3 interceptions.
The Jets need to trust their four-man rush this week. Darnold and Jefferson are too difficult to stop with less than seven defenders in coverage. With seven guys in the back end, the Jets can allocate extra help to Jefferson and trust their elite secondary to win one-on-one against the rest of Minnesota’s weapons.
It just comes down to whether the Jets’ four-man rush can do a competent enough job. It is a very legitimate concern, but in this particular game, they have a favorable matchup against the Vikings’ offensive line, so they should be expected to get it done. If the game goes on and the four-man rush is too dire for the Jets to survive, they can adjust and test their luck with the blitz, but the strategy to start the game must be to win with four.
Not only does relying on the four-man rush match the strengths and weaknesses of Minnesota’s offense, but it aligns with our first key about keeping the game close going into the fourth quarter. Even if the Jets struggle with the four-man rush, playing softer in the back end should force Minnesota into beating them with lengthy, time-consuming drives, whereas blitzing could leave the Jets susceptible to allowing quick, explosive scoring drives.
If Minnesota’s offense is going to succeed in this game, the Jets need it to be in a plodding fashion that minimizes the Vikings’ chances of running up the score over the first three quarters. The worst thing that can happen to New York in this game is digging too deep of a hole to forge a fourth-quarter comeback. Using a soft, four-man-rush-reliant strategy on defense is the best way to avoid that scenario.
For anything the Jets do defensively to matter, the offense has to score more than 9 points. They can do that by building upon a promising package that is begging to be used more often.
Use Braelon Allen and Breece Hall together
Finding holes to exploit in this Vikings defense is a difficult proposition. Ranked first in both pass defense DVOA and rush defense DVOA, Minnesota has been nearly impeccable defensively.
You can cut up nearly any situational split you want, and the Vikings have dominated it this year. However, after some thorough digging, I was able to find one weakness the Vikings have struggled with over a small sample, and it’s one the Jets are particularly equipped to exploit.
Minnesota has struggled against 21 personnel (2 backs, 1 TE, 2 WR) packages this season. In the passing game, the Vikings have allowed 7.3 total EPA against 21 personnel, ranked second-worst behind only the Jaguars. Opponents are 11-of-13 for 141 yards (0 TD/0 INT) when throwing out of 21 personnel against Minnesota.
This extends to the run game. Minnesota has allowed 16 carries for 84 yards (5.3 yards per carry) against 21 personnel, generating 0.9 EPA, ranked 10th-worst. The Vikings’ tackling has been poor on these plays, as they rank sixth-worst with 1.6 RYOE per carry (Rushing Yards Over Expected) allowed against 21 personnel.
The Jets are catching a defense vulnerable to two-back sets at the perfect time.
New York has a little bit of a running back controversy brewing. Projected superstar Breece Hall is struggling in the lead role, while fourth-round rookie Braelon Allen is thriving in the complementary role. The Jets have gradually closed the gap between Hall and Allen’s touches, putting them on a trajectory to experiment with a 50-50 split in London.
With Allen demanding more playing time and the Vikings susceptible to two-back sets, the Jets should strongly consider using Allen and Hall simultaneously on a relatively large sample of plays in London.
The Jets have experimented with Allen-Hall packages this season, generating promising results. They have used 21 personnel on 11 plays, averaging a very efficient 0.11 EPA per play on those reps. For comparison, the NFL average EPA per play with 21 personnel is -0.03.
Note: 21 personnel also includes plays in which a fullback is in the game as the second back, but since the Jets do not have a player listed as a fullback on the roster, any NYJ plays charted as 21 personnel are those that include 2 RBs.
All 11 of those plays have come over the past three games, giving the Jets nearly four plays with the Allen-Hall combination per game over that span. In London, it’s time to kick that up a notch and make it more of a fixture in the offense.
On this play, the Jets put Hall in motion and faked a screen to him, only to throw a screen to Allen on the other side. The result is a touchdown.
Here, the Jets flex out Hall and fake a jet motion to him, only to hand it off to Allen, resulting in a 9-yard gain on first down.
This time, Hall motions out of the backfield, which prompts a shift from the second-level defenders. Allen takes the handoff and eventually runs through the spot where the middle linebacker was initially standing before Hall’s motion forced him to slide. It results in a 5-yard gain.
Not only have the Jets already had success with their Allen-Hall package, but they’ve left meat on the bone, too. Here, the Jets fake a handoff to Allen and create a favorable one-on-one for Hall on a wheel route against the linebacker. Hall doesn’t create much separation, and Rodgers underthrows the pass, but this is a fantastic touchdown opportunity yielded by the uniqueness of the Allen-Hall combination.
There is yet to be a proven formula for success against this Minnesota defense. It will take some creativity to become the first offense to give them fits for four quarters. Frequently using two running backs could be one method to exploit the Vikings that other teams have not discovered yet.
Luckily for the Jets, they have the necessary talent at the running back position to succeed with that approach. This is the week for the Jets to embrace the fact that they have a two-headed monster in the backfield. If it works, not only could it lead to success in London, but it could allow the Jets to discover a new calling card they can rely on throughout the season.
