On Sunday, the New York Jets will have a golden opportunity to unlock their downfield passing game against a struggling Arizona Cardinals pass rush.
Arizona has the NFL’s lowest pressure rate on dropbacks lasting longer than 2.5 seconds (36.2%). The Cardinals’ lack of pressure on long-lasting plays is the primary reason why they have allowed a whopping 112 completions after 2.5 seconds, the fifth-most in the NFL.
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Jets play-caller Todd Downing needs to trust the offensive line on Sunday. His goal should be to scheme up a healthy dosage of long-developing deep shots that exploit Arizona’s inability to get to the quarterback in a hurry.
As for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, his job is to find the right place to go with the football when Downing cooks up those deep shots. If the Jets’ offensive line does its job against a weak pass rush, Rodgers will have plenty of time to scan his options, so he must choose wisely between the choices available to him.
The good news for Rodgers is that Arizona’s lack of pressure on long-lasting dropbacks coincides with the weak point in their secondary: the safety position. Not only do the Cardinals let quarterbacks stand around in the pocket, but their safeties are vulnerable, creating the perfect recipe to attack downfield.
Arizona’s starting safeties, Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson, have been the team’s two most exploitable defenders in coverage based on passer rating allowed. Among the nine Cardinals defenders who have seen at least 10 targets this year, Baker (128.5) and Thompson (124.8) have allowed the highest passer ratings on throws into their coverage, and it is not close:
- S Budda Baker (128.5) – 30 targets
- S Jalen Thompson (124.8) – 24 targets
- CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (102.5) – 20 targets
- LB Kyzir White (99.1) – 34 targets
- CB Starling Thomas V (99.0) – 34 targets
- LB Owen Pappoe (98.5) -11 targets
- CB Max Melton (97.9) – 29 targets
- LB Mack Wilson Sr. (69.9) – 17 targets
- CB Garrett Williams (67.4) – 33 targets
According to Pro Football Focus
When targeting Baker or Thompson this season, opposing quarterbacks have completed 45 of 54 passes (83.3%) for 460 yards (8.5 yards per attempt), 4 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Rodgers should attempt to emulate some of these examples of how the Cardinals’ safeties have been beaten.
The Cardinals rush four here, dropping one edge defender and replacing him with a linebacker. The running back does a good job of picking up the linebacker, and the other three rushers come nowhere close to Matthew Stafford, so he has all day to hold this ball. It is very common to see Arizona allow clean pockets like this, so you need to take advantage of that with your play calling.
Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson runs a post route directly into the hands of Arizona’s two-high coverage. He is covered as part of the initial concept. However, because the poor pass rush allows Stafford to hold the ball for so long, Robinson has time to improvise and break toward the sideline (which Stafford directs him to do). Stafford throws up a 50-50 ball, and Budda Baker (No. 3) completely loses track of both the ball and Robinson, yielding a relatively easy 42-yard reception.
The Cardinals create absolutely no pressure on this play-action dropback by Jordan Love, buying Christian Watson enough time to gain depth and speed on his post route over the middle. Watson is already 25 yards downfield when the ball comes out.
The non-existent pass rush makes this a daunting assignment for Baker with no help over the middle. Baker bites on Watson’s outside fake, causing Baker to open his hips and leave the middle wide open. Watson breaks back inside and Baker does not have the speed to recover, even with Watson slowing up for a split-second to track the ball.
Baker is best known for his physicality in the box rather than his coverage. If Rodgers has an opportunity to take a 50-50 shot against Baker, he should just throw it up and trust Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams to make the play.
Contrary to Baker, Jalen Thompson is best known for his coverage skills. He has been a good coverage defender in the past. In 2023, Thompson had four interceptions and yielded a passer rating of just 73.9.
Because of his coverage skills, the Cardinals deploy Thompson in a versatile fashion, often lining him up in the slot. Thompson ranked third among safeties with 240 slot coverage snaps in 2023, and he is 10th this season with 80. However, so far in 2024, Thompson has been more susceptible to getting beat.
The Cardinals show a potential Cover 0 look with Thompson manned up in the slot against Mack Hollins, so Josh Allen changes the play. Post-snap, Allen confirms it’s zero when Baker blitzes, leaving it man-to-man across the board with no safety help. Thompson allows Hollins to easily get across his face, and Allen hits him for the touchdown.
Arizona has utilized Cover 0 at the NFL’s 10th-highest rate this season (6.6% of opposing dropbacks), which equates to 2.5 plays per game. So, the Jets will likely get at least one or two opportunities to attack Cover 0 on Sunday. When they do, Rodgers should locate Thompson and test him out. If Mack Hollins could take him to the house, so can Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
After the Rams motion Cooper Kupp pre-snap, Thompson drops down to cover him man-to-man. Since he has to wade through the traffic of his own teammate and the tight end, Thompson cannot get into an ideal position to square up with Kupp and cover him straight-on. His only chance is to try to anticipate where Kupp will be and get out in front of that spot. This forces him to make an educated guess and commit in one direction.
Kupp does a great job of slow-playing his route underneath the tight end, which forces Thompson to stay caught up in the traffic and puts pressure on him to commit. Kupp keeps his hips pointed toward the sideline and gets Thompson to buy on an out-breaking route before cutting back inside, where he is wide open for a catch that presents big-time YAC potential.
It’s a great design by Los Angeles, as they put a safety in a position of conflict against a top-tier route-running wide receiver, which is a matchup you target every time. The Jets should use pre-snap motion to create these matchups on Sunday. Downing has significantly increased the Jets’ motion usage since taking over, and this would be a fantastic way to weaponize that.
While we’ve talked a lot about how the Jets will have an ideal opportunity to attack deep on Sunday, Thompson will probably not be a part of that particular plan. Although he has struggled this year, the longest reception he has allowed went for only 24 yards (the above play to Kupp). Baker is the man to target deep; Thompson is the man to attack from down-to-down when the Jets are trying to sustain a drive.
The Jets must find ways to draw Thompson into man-to-man situations on in-breakers against Wilson and Adams. When this happens, Rodgers should be able to find success with his usual quick-release approach, allowing the Jets to build long drives and draw the defense in. Then, the Jets can mix in a long-developing deep shot off play action, where Rodgers ideally locates Baker and challenges him.
The Jets’ offensive plan on Sunday is clear: Trust the offensive line to hold up, and attack the safeties.
