Is Aaron Rodgers cooked?
Statistically, it certainly looks like it. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks, Rodgers ranks:
- 26th in completion percentage (61%)
- 29th in yards per attempt (6.0)
- 28th in net yards per attempt (5.10)
- 26th in passer rating (81.6)
- 21st in QBR (49.1)
The 40-year-old looks somewhat better by Pro Football Focus passing grade (71.4, 14th) and DVOA (11.8%, 17th). Still, his performance over the last two games has raised serious questions.
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Accuracy has been one of the biggest issues with Rodgers’ game this season. According to Pro Football Reference, he ranks 24th out of 32 passers with a 15% bad throw rate and 28th with a 53.9% on-target rate. The bad throw rate is similar to his 2022 mark (14.8%), although it ranked 14th that season. However, his on-target rate in 2022 was 80.6%, which ranked second.
Of course, with Rodgers, accuracy is relative. He tends to place a ball in the exact spot where only the receiver can catch it. If the receiver turns at the right time, the ball is in his wheelhouse. If he doesn’t, it looks like a terribly off-line throw. To an extent, Jets receivers have been making Rodgers look bad by failing to look back for the ball or run routes based on the defender’s leverage. Still, the 26.7% disparity in on-target rate is real. Rodgers has made many bad throws this year, particularly over the last two weeks.
There are two other reasons the Jets’ passing game looks as bad as it does, though: the Jets’ receivers never bail him out when he makes off-target throws, and they either drop the ball or don’t look back for it when he’s on target.
According to Pro Football Focus, 9.8% of Rodgers’ passes have been dropped, the fifth-worst rate among passers. Unsurprisingly, Allen Lazard is by far the worst culprit with six drops (23.1% rate, somehow worse than last year’s 17.9%). The Jets are actually doing fairly well on contested catches, going 15-for-29 (51.7%) as a team. However, it’s not in contested situations where they’re not bailing him out, but more when the catch is not easy but makeable.
This makes for a hideous combination. If the Jets’ receivers ran routes properly, caught the balls they clearly should, and made some tough catches, Rodgers would have four or five more touchdown passes, many more yards, and likely at least one more win. On the flip side, the same would be true if Rodgers were more accurate when receivers are open.
Against the Vikings, Rodgers definitely missed many opportunities — but so did his receivers. Overall, Jets pass-catchers dropped four passes and went 2-for-7 (28.6%) on contested catches.
When digging into the film of New York’s loss against Minnesota, there are plenty of ugly moments to be found from both parties.
Plays that were Rodgers’ fault
All three interceptions Rodgers threw were his fault.
This play is simply a result of knowing Rodgers’ tendencies. The Vikings showed a Cover 0 look and guarded the sticks on 3rd-and-6. They know Rodgers would likely try to throw a quick slant in that situation (he wouldn’t throw the screen on third down).
Therefore, to catch Rodgers, they had the mugged-up Andrew Van Ginkel take two steps forward, then sprint out in coverage to cut the likely slant going to Garrett Wilson. It worked to perfection and resulted in a pick-six. Brian Flores beat Rodgers (rather than Nathaniel Hackett) on that play.
On the second interception, Rodgers sailed the throw by at least five yards. He had a clean pocket, too.
On the third interception, a combination of Rodgers’ tendencies and inaccuracy cost the Jets the game. Seeing man coverage, Rodgers wanted the back-shoulder throw to Mike Williams with the cornerback’s back turned. However, Stephon Gilmore knew the throw was coming, got his head turned around, and picked it off.
This is great preparation and execution from a veteran cornerback, but it’s also a bad play by both Rodgers and Williams. As Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett has explained repeatedly since the Jets acquired Rodgers, Rodgers tends to place the ball inside toward the cornerback’s helmet rather than a true back-shoulder throw.
In general, it makes the ball harder to catch, as the receiver must fight through contact. In this case, because Gilmore was prepared for it, it caused the game-sealing interception. If Rodgers had actually thrown the ball back-shoulder, an interception would have been far less likely.
Williams didn’t help matters, though, by being unprepared for the throw. If he had realized it was coming, he likely could have fought through Gilmore and at least had a chance to break up the pass.
Throughout the game, Rodgers had some other bad throws and decisions.
This one to Wilson looks like he wasn’t even trying. There was some dead time at the top of the route, but nonetheless, this could have been a fairly easy completion.
Why didn’t Rodgers throw the ball to Conklin here? It was 1st-and-10. Take the easy 4-5 yards. He continues to inexplicably forgo easy throws.
Rodgers continues to make poor throws to the flat. It’s hard to understand why he jumped to throw it. Sure, Tyler Conklin could’ve caught it, but it was too low. The play wouldn’t have gained much anyway but still illustrates Rodgers’ ongoing accuracy woes.
It’s just a flat-out horrible ball. Rodgers generally has bad mechanics but can compensate for them. His front foot was pointed toward the sideline rather than his target, and the ball went toward the sideline rather than at his target.
Either Rodgers didn’t read the Tampa-2 coverage, or (more likely) he was arrogant enough to think he could get the ball over the linebacker with his back turned. Regardless, since the safety broke on the ball, this pass could have easily been intercepted. It ultimately hit Conklin’s outstretched fingertips and caused him to come up a little gimpy.
Perhaps a faster tight end could have gotten there, but Rodgers needs to understand his pass-catcher. There wasn’t anywhere else to go with the ball, but it was an ill-advised attempt regardless.
This one was a have-to-have, and Rodgers didn’t make it. It looks like this was a double move. Rodgers was under pressure and overthrew Wilson by at least seven yards. This was a go-ahead touchdown, and he didn’t make the throw. (It is eerily reminiscent of a play against Minnesota in 2022 where Mike White missed Wilson deep for a likely go-ahead touchdown.)
Receivers’ fault
Rodgers placed the ball as well as a quarterback can to Allen Lazard in the end zone, and Lazard just didn’t bring it in. It wasn’t an easy catch, but an NFL receiver must be able to bring it in. The Jets had to settle for a field goal to make the game 17-10 when it should have been 17-14.
That end-zone shot could not have been placed more perfectly if Aaron Rodgers were to hand it off. Lazard, Garrett Wilson, the #Jets weapons have to make the tough catches, and they're not doing it. It's not pretty, and it's gotta close to league-worst stuff (tough catch%).
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 6, 2024
On this 3rd-and-6, it looks like Rodgers may have predetermined that he was going to Garrett Wilson on the corner route against quarters coverage. He looked at the safety to hold him inside and placed the ball back-shoulder away from the cornerback.
Knowing it was quarters coverage, Wilson should have taken this route far deeper, away from the cornerback (who would have been right on the route had he covered properly and not cheated down on Tyler Conklin’s flat route). Instead, Wilson continued taking it flat and could not adjust to the throw, resulting in an incomplete pass. This one is on Wilson.
Certainly a less-than-pristine route from Lazard here. Ultimately, he turned to the back shoulder and was ready for the throw without any fight from the cornerback — and he just dropped the ball. Inexcusable.
On 2nd-and-8, the Jets had a chance for a first down and more on a screen pass. The Vikings were caught with many defenders on the right side of the field, and the Jets had blockers out in front. It doesn’t look like the cleanest throw from Rodgers, but ultimately, the ball went right through Braelon Allen’s hands.
On 1st-and-10, Rodgers threw the slant slightly behind Lazard to avoid a hospital ball. Lazard turned for it and just dropped it. Maybe the ball was thrown a little harder than necessary for a five-yard pass, but ultimately, that’s a ball that must be caught 100 times out of 100. It came too close to an interception instead.
There definitely wasn’t a lot of space here, but falling down rather than fighting through contact meant Wilson didn’t draw a defensive pass interference call. With the defender flailing, that should have been the minimum result from this pass.
1st-and-10, final drive. Rodgers placed a 23-yard pass about as perfectly as you can throw it. It doesn’t look like the defender got a finger on it. Lazard simply dropped the pass, again. Was it a tough catch? Absolutely. But it must be made.
The worst combination
A quarterback who puts the ball in unconventional spots. Receivers who can’t make tough catches and drop the easy ones. Miscommunication. Inaccuracy. It’s all there, and it’s creating a passing game that looks almost as bad as the last decade of Jets offensive play.
That says nothing of the play-calling. Nathaniel Hackett is making life difficult with outrageously predictable passing concepts.
Jets offense is really living on the extremes in terms of route profile.
They are top 3 in rate of:
Short fades, deep fades, short outs, ins, slants and go routes
And bottom 3 in rate of:
Deep crossers, medium crossers, deep outs, comebacks and digs
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 7, 2024
As Jets X-Factor’s Andrew Fialkow said, that’s “majoring in difficult.” Accordingly, 50.6% of Rodgers’ pass attempts have been on flat routes, slants, or go routes, and he ranks in the top three in the NFL in targeting each of those route types.
There isn’t a lot of time to get all of these issues fixed. Perhaps Rodgers is still finding his rhythm after a year off, especially with a low-ankle sprain. The fact that things have gotten worse rather than better over the last two weeks is very concerning, though.
As far as Rodgers’ communication with his receivers, even if the Jets do get Davante Adams, they’ll need to get on the same page as soon as possible. As former Falcons quarterback and current CBS NFL analyst Matt Ryan said, Garrett Wilson and the other receivers must get on Rodgers’ page rather than the reverse. That’s on them and the coaching staff.
But the dropsies and the inability to make tough catches? That might just be life with the Jets’ receivers. And that’s a really scary thought even if Rodgers can fix his accuracy problems. Adams could put a Band-Aid over the issue, but Adams is slowing down somewhat and cannot run an offense on his own.
The Jets somehow have a chance to take first place in the division with a win over the Bills next week. If things don’t change offensively, though, the game will go down much as the last two have.
