The New York Jets may have fired Robert Saleh because he stubbornly insisted on running the ball.
That’s a stretch in a literal sense, but from a philosophical perspective, it may be spot on. Saleh’s conservative mindset entering each game, his “race to 20 points” mentality, and his adherence to establishing the run even when it consistently failed were major parts of the Jets’ offensive dysfunction.
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In Jeff Ulbrich’s first week as the Jets’ head coach, there will be an overwhelming temptation to tread that same path. But Ulbrich must not fall for the box score statistics and make the same mistakes as Saleh.
On paper, the Buffalo Bills’ run defense is ripe for the picking. They rank 26th in rush yards per game allowed (144.0) and 32nd in yards per attempt (5.2). Pro Football Focus backs up these numbers, as the Bills’ teamwide 53.9 run defense grade ranks 26th.
You have the box score, you have the “analytics.” What more do you need to say that the Jets should pound the ball down the Bills’ throats? For an offense ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, that seems like an ideal “get-right” matchup, especially for the struggling Breece Hall.
First of all, PFF grades are not analytics in the traditional sense; they are a way to quantify film study, no different than if Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett assigned a numeric value to “great play” or “terrible.” The PFF grade seems to indicate that individual Bills run defenders are not performing well, but the grades do not always match up with the cumulative team effort (which is the case for team grades in every category).
More importantly, though, yards per carry and yards per game are not the most important barometers of rushing success on either side of the football. Efficiency and situational effectiveness matter far more. The best metric for this purpose is DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). It quantifies team performance based on game context and opponent.
The Bills rank seventh in the NFL with a run defense DVOA of -17.5%. So ultimately, for all their bad numbers and supposedly terrible run defense, they’ve actually been effective as a whole when games are close.
That’s partially because 39.8% of the yardage they’ve allowed has come on breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yards), including an 87-yard touchdown run by Derrick Henry. The Bills have allowed the second-most breakaway runs (10) and the sixth-worst breakaway rate (7.25%).
Allowing explosive runs is certainly not good for a defense, but if they’re shutting down the run game otherwise, the effect of breakaways becomes diluted.
Furthermore, the Bills’ rush defense statistics are heavily skewed by one explosive game by one of the best running teams in the NFL, the Ravens. Baltimore has run rampant on other teams, too; in their other four games, they lead the league in yards per carry (5.7) and rank fourth in EPA per carry (0.12), rush success rate (50.7%), and rush yards over expected per carry (1.3).
In Buffalo’s 35-10 loss to Baltimore, they allowed 271 rush yards, 8.0 yards per attempt, a 52.9% rush success rate, and 0.23 EPA per carry. Isolating their other four games, the Bills rank 13th in yards per carry (4.3), 15th in EPA per carry (-0.06), and seventh in success rate (37.5%). That last number is crucial, as it shows the Bills’ run defense has actually done an excellent job of containing offenses on a down-by-down basis in four of their five games.
The numbers become even more stark excluding the Baltimore game and garbage time. The Bills actually allow the eighth-fewest yards per carry and the fifth-lowest rush success rate in those times.
This may seem like cherry-picking, but especially early in the season, one outlier game and garbage time can completely skew a team’s true performance. In ordinary circumstances, the Bills’ run defense is, at minimum, above average.
To throw another variable into the mix, a large chunk of the Bills’ struggles against the run have come against quarterbacks. Even including the Buffalo game and Derrick Henry’s 199 yards, the Bills still rank 17th in EPA per carry (-0.07) and 10th in success rate (37%) on non-quarterback runs. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray account for a large chunk of the Bills’ struggles on the ground.
These factors should be heavy warning signs for the Jets that running the ball against Buffalo will not be nearly as easy as it looks in the box score statistics. The Bills were gashed by an elite running game and in garbage time. The rest of the time, their run defense does a good job on a down-by-down basis. This is not good news for a team struggling mightily with run-blocking.
The Jets must have someone who can isolate these factors and read through the noise. Saleh’s insistence on coming out with a run-first mentality cost the Jets mightily early in games. It is incumbent upon Ulbrich to change that picture, both to get the Jets off to faster starts and because this run game matchup is not nearly as easy as it appears.
The Jets have a critical game in front of them. They cannot lose it due to the same old mentality.
