It’s hard to blame the New York Jets’ defense for anything this season when their offense has been the source of most of the woes. That’s exactly why Robert Saleh’s firing drew so much criticism.
But the Jets’ loss to the Bills falls almost as much on the defense as the offense. While it was a collective effort, two particular players caused the most damage to the Jets’ chances — and one of them is both surprising and worrisome.
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Ashtyn Davis
The Jets were shorthanded at safety in this game, as Isaiah Oliver moved to the slot to replace Michael Carter II. The situation became even more dire when Chuck Clark went down with an ankle sprain.
Even before Clark’s injury, though, it was evident that Ashtyn Davis should not have been on the field. The results have been ugly whenever the Jets use Davis more extensively this season.
Pro Football Focus charged Davis with allowing 2 of 3 receptions for only 16 yards. However, one of those was a touchdown, and the other on the play before should have been a touchdown.
On 2nd-and-goal from the Jets’ 8-yard line, Curtis Samuel beat Davis for a would-be touchdown. Josh Allen was simply off target, and the pass went off Samuel’s fingertips. Davis’ feet got completely stagnant, allowing Samuel to blow right by him.
On the next play, Mack Hollins beat Davis for an easy touchdown. Davis’ feet were slow off the jump, and he missed his punch on Hollins and lost his footing. However, as Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo stated, Davis committed a cardinal sin by playing with outside leverage in the red zone. This was an easy read for Allen pre-snap and worked out exactly as drawn up.
Hollins is 6-foot-4 and 221 pounds; his agility and route-running are limited. To have him win on a contested ball in the end zone is one thing, but allowing Allen to find him open in 2.14 seconds is inexcusable.
In general, Davis is a liability in coverage, whether he’s targeted or not. He has allowed 5 of 7 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown, including a 34-yard pass to fullback Kyle Juszczyk in Week 1.
The Jets have allowed 5.8 yards per attempt on 121 pass attempts with Davis off the field and 7.2 on 44 attempts when he’s on the field. Their EPA per dropback is -0.36 without him and 0.21 with him; for reference, -0.36 EPA per dropback would be the best in the NFL, while 0.21 would be the third-worst.
Perhaps this dichotomy is merely the effect of a small sample size. The Jets have faced nearly three times the number of pass attempts without him than with him. But the difference is so stark that Davis almost certainly has something to do with it. That is a concerning sign with Clark set to miss at least the next four games.
Quincy Williams
The Bills’ loss of James Cook was supposed to hamper their offense. Instead, rookie Ray Davis stepped right in and posted 152 scrimmage yards, including 97 on the ground at a 4.9 yards-per-carry clip. In total, running backs accounted for 204 of the Bills’ 364 yards from scrimmage (56%).
The Jets’ run defense has been leaky all season as a collective effort. However, Quincy Williams was responsible for Josh Allen’s biggest pass play of the game, which came to a running back. And it’s becoming a recurring theme.
In pass defense, Williams allowed a 42-yard completion to Davis deep downfield. Initially, Williams’ angle to the back was too flat, causing him to run into D.J. Reed and lose his balance. Davis was open downfield for what could have been a touchdown, but Allen was flushed out of the pocket. At that point, Williams slowed down and did not follow through with his coverage, and Allen hit Davis for a huge gain.
Running back coverage has been a persistent issue for Williams this season. Quarterbacks have gone 8-for-8 for 111 yards when targeting a running back in Williams’ direction. Among 25 linebackers who have faced at least five targets to running backs, here are Williams’ numbers in covering running backs:
- 25th in EPA per target (1.01)
- 25th in yards per target (13.9)
- 24th in coverage success rate (37.5%)
Yes, it’s only eight targets, and yes, those numbers are skewed by two big throws in the Jets’ last two games, one to Aaron Jones and the other to Davis. But nonetheless, this is a concerning trend for the Jets’ defense. The Vikings and Bills went right after Williams, and other offenses will likely follow suit.
Williams also had his struggles against running backs in 2023, although they were not nearly as prominent. He was targeted at the sixth-highest rate out of 51 linebackers (min. 10 targets) when covering running backs (36.4%) and faced the most running back targets (39). In total, he allowed 25 of 39 completions for 195 yards and two touchdowns against the position. Here were his advanced numbers against running backs in 2023.
- 33rd in EPA per target (-0.09)
- 23rd in yards per target (5.0)
- 7th in coverage success rate (76.9%)
That last number demonstrates the most critical difference between Williams’ running back coverage in 2023 and 2024. A successful play on defense is defined as preventing the offense from gaining 40% of the required yards on first down, 50% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
In 2023, when a running back target went in Williams’ direction, it usually resulted in an offensive failure — regardless of how many yards he gave up. In 2024, albeit in a small sample size, targeting running backs covered by Williams invariably results in success.
Williams also allowed a touchdown to Dawson Knox. This one was more on the Jets’ pass rush for allowing Allen to get out of the pocket, and Williams initially blanketed Knox. However, once again, he could not keep track of his man on the scramble drill and allowed a big play. He added a pass interference penalty in coverage against Knox, as well.
While the throws to Davis and Knox were the only two targets Williams faced in the game, they were both game-changers in long down-and-distance situations (2nd-and-10 and 3rd-and-11).
Ultimately, there were many defensive culprits in this game. The run defense worked was a collective sieve, giving Ray Davis and Ty Johnson wide-open running lanes. D.J. Reed and Brandin Echols combined to allow 8 catches on 9 targets for 106 yards, and Reed was called for two pass interference penalties.
Still, Williams and Davis were responsible for Josh Allen’s two touchdown passes and his deepest completion of the night. The Jets need more from the pair of them. Williams is supposed to be the Jets’ best linebacker, and Davis may start for the foreseeable future (depending on Isaiah Oliver’s availability at safety) with Chuck Clark on injured reserve.
Otherwise, the Jets’ elite coverage could start to fall apart, taking away the only part of the team that had been successful.
