It seems like no New York Jets fan wants to be optimistic right now, but for those of you searching for some sliver of hope to cling onto … I offer you Todd Downing.
In his first game as the Jets’ offensive play caller, Downing was everything Nathaniel Hackett was not. Downing established a new offensive identity for the team, one that is more modernized and a better fit for the strengths and weaknesses of the roster. He immediately came in and undid many of Hackett’s crimes, checking boxes that Jets fans have been begging to see checked for not only weeks, but years.
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Despite the heartbreaking final result on the scoreboard, the decisions made by Downing in his debut performance offer plenty of hope going forward. It is only one game, so he must prove he can maintain his changes as opponents begin to adjust, but it is hard to script a better debut performance for Downing.
Here are some of the primary ways Downing changed the Jets’ offensive identity for the better.
More 11 personnel
Heading into Monday, we talked about how the Jets needed to rely more heavily on 11 personnel packages (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR) rather than multi-TE personnel packages. The Jets were using a low rate of 11 personnel and a high rate of multi-TE personnel, but based on how the roster had been performing, it was clear that 11 personnel packages were a much better fit for the Jets than 12 (2 TE) or 13 (3 TE) personnel packages. The Jets were trying to be a gritty, run-it-down-your-throat team despite not having the blocking talent at tight end to justify it.
Downing immediately fixed this. Against Buffalo, the Jets came out on their scripted opening drive without using 12 personnel a single time across eight plays. The Jets put together a solid 8-play, 54-yard drive that culminated in a field goal. It was a sign of things to come, as the Jets deployed their most 11-centric game plan of the season.
The Jets finished the game using 11 personnel on 67.8% of their plays. That was only their third-highest rate of the season, but the results look different after controlling for game-script context. While New York used 11 personnel more often against San Francisco (75.5%) and Minnesota (73.2%), that was only because they were trailing by double-digits for most of the second half in those games, forcing them into using more 11 personnel since they were passing on almost every play. If you isolate first-half plays, the difference stands out much more clearly.
New York used 11 personnel on 70% of its first-half plays against Buffalo, a season-high. The Jets’ previous season average was 59.3%. The spike in first-half usage indicates that Downing prioritized this change when game-planning. First-half plays are a better indicator of a team’s intended game plan, as the game-script and in-game adjustments take center stage in the second half.
The heavy reliance on 11 personnel led to amazing results. For the game, the Jets averaged 8.0 yards per play when using 11 personnel, also a season-best. With a spread-out alignment for the majority of the night, Aaron Rodgers was able to get into an excellent rhythm at times. He looked noticeably more comfortable compared to the Jets’ reliance on condensed formations over the first five weeks.
With Nathaniel Hackett and Robert Saleh at the helm, the Jets were overly committed to establishing the identity of a ground-and-pound offense, causing them to stubbornly build an offensive philosophy that did not fit the strengths of the team. Downing and Ulbrich came right in and molded the Jets to an offensive identity that is a much better fit for the team’s strengths.
More motion
Another area where the Jets clearly needed to improve was their usage of pre-snap motion. The Jets entered Week 6 ranked 31st in pre-snap motion rate at just 46.5% of their plays, far below the league average of 62.7%.
It makes no sense to be this far behind the curve when the top of the motion rate list is littered with elite offensive coaches and/or teams. The top eight teams in motion rate include Andy Reid’s Chiefs (4th / 78%), Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers (3rd / 79.9%), Ben Johnson’s Lions (7th / 74.7%), Sean McVay’s Rams (2nd / 82.8%), Matt LaFleur’s Packers (5th / 77%), Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins (1st / 84.9%), and Joe Brady’s Bills (6th / 75.5%). If those coaches/teams rely heavily on motion, it’s probably a smart thing to do.
Apparently, Hackett thought he was above that, but Downing does not. Against Buffalo, the Jets used pre-snap motion on a season-high 72.9% of their plays, substantially higher than their previous season average of 46.5%. For reference, a motion rate of 72.9% would currently rank eighth-highest in the NFL, slotting between the seventh-ranked Lions (74.7%) and ninth-ranked Falcons (71.8%) – who, uncoincidentally, both currently rank top-10 in points scored per drive.
Just like the boost in 11 personnel, the boost in motion usage was accompanied by boosted efficiency on those plays. The Jets averaged 7.7 yards per play when they used pre-snap motion against Buffalo, which was a season-high. They only averaged 4.0 yards per play when they did not use motion. With a disparity like that, relying heavily on pre-snap motion is an obvious move.
The Jets’ run game benefited immensely from the increased motion usage. New York had a season-high 19 rushing attempts when using motion, and the season-high in volume was accompanied by a season-high in efficiency. The Jets averaged a season-high 6.3 yards per rush attempt when using motion, while their 21.1% explosive run rate (percentage of runs for 10+ yards) was also a season-best. New York had four explosive runs when using motion compared to just three over the first five weeks.
A promising turning point for the Jets offense
Everyone asked the same question when Robert Saleh was fired: “How does this fix the offense?”
We’re only one game into the post-Saleh era, but the Jets offense already looks immensely different. Perhaps those changes could have been achieved if Saleh stayed and demoted Hackett in favor of Downing, but we’ll never know. The reality is that Saleh is gone and Ulbrich is ultimately the one who made the decision to switch offensive play callers, and it paid immediate dividends.
Ulbrich also deserves credit for these changes. Downing is in charge of the offense, but as the head coach, Ulbrich sets the tone for the team’s overall philosophy and mindset. It is likely that Ulbrich played a role in facilitating some of these alterations to the team’s offensive identity. We do not know if the same changes would have occurred if Hackett were demoted but Saleh remained in charge.
It is unfortunate that all of these changes to the offensive identity did not yield the desired outcome. The Jets still only scored 20 points, and they still lost. Because of those two things, the national media will run with the narrative that nothing changed in New York after Saleh’s firing.
Despite the familiar outcome, the Jets’ offensive operation was entirely unfamiliar. Downing immediately overturned many of the things that made Hackett’s offense so frustrating, and for the most part, it did lead to better results. The Jets picked up 393 yards of offense and 20 first downs. If their Hall-of-Fame left tackle doesn’t commit a red zone holding penalty and their kicker makes a chip shot field goal, the Jets score 30 points and take first place in the division. It is that simple.
The Jets need to execute better in key moments if they are going to win games. They cannot commit killer penalties. They cannot drop passes in the end zone. They have to make kicks. They have to block up running lanes near the goal line. You can go on and on.
While all of these things are true, it cannot be denied that the Jets’ decisions to fire Saleh and demote Hackett ultimately led to a much better offensive identity being put on display. The team is running a more modernized offense that is a better fit for its strengths, and it was visibly apparent for most of the night. If the execution in key moments from Greg Zuerlein and Tyron Smith were better, more people would be giving props to Downing and the Jets for their overnight transformation. Instead, the world is ending.
The Jets have dug a steep hole for themselves at 2-4. I understand that it is difficult to be optimistic in this predicament. But they finally seem to have an offensive play caller who knows what he’s doing. You wanted positive changes to the offense? You got ’em.
Sprinkle in a little Davante Adams, and the Jets have as realistic of an opportunity to turn things around as a 2-4 team could. That statement would not be possible to make if Saleh and Hackett were still in charge.
