The Pittsburgh Steelers have tabbed Russell Wilson to start on Sunday against the New York Jets, sending Justin Fields to the bench after he led the team to a 4-2 start.
Jeff Ulbrich and the Jets should be thrilled about this change. Here are a few reasons why New York matches up better against Wilson than Fields.
Propensity for taking long-developing sacks
We’re going to start off with an advantage in the Jets’ favor that would exist regardless of which Steelers quarterback took the field.
While the Jets’ pass rush has struggled to generate consistent pressure this season, they have still been excellent at finishing sacks, entering Sunday ranked third in the NFL with 20 of them. This is due to a combination of two factors: 1) the Jets’ elite coverage forcing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball and 2) the pass rush’s ability to finish sacks on long-developing plays.
New York’s opponents have held the ball for 4+ seconds on 16.2% of their dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. This is a product of the Jets’ elite pass coverage and their lack of ability to generate quick pressure. While the pass rushers struggle to get home quickly, they take advantage when given time to chase the quarterback down, as the Jets rank third in the NFL with 16 sacks that occurred 4+ seconds after the snap. That makes up 80% of their 20 total sacks.
This is an area where Pittsburgh would be in trouble whether Fields or Wilson started. Both quarterbacks tend to hold onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks, resulting in high sack totals.
Fields held the ball for 4+ seconds on 16.3% of his dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate behind only Jalen Hurts. Wilson’s rate was somehow higher in 2023 at 18.6% (third-highest), making him an even more appealing matchup for the Jets’ high-motor pass rushers.
Because of their tendency to create long-lasting dropbacks, both quarterbacks are highly sack-prone. Fields is tied for the sixth-most sacks taken this season (16) while Wilson took the fourth-most last season (45). On a per-game basis, that makes Wilson slightly more sack-prone (3.0 per game versus 2.7).
Wilson seems slightly more prone to hanging onto the ball than Fields, which is great news for New York. Still, the Steelers would be at risk of taking many sacks regardless of which quarterback is on the field. That is a vital advantage for the Jets considering how reliant they are on long-developing sacks.
While both quarterbacks love holding onto the ball and taking sacks, Fields would have been a better option to mitigate this problem due to his talent as a scrambler.
Less dangerous as a scrambler
Fields is one of the best scramblers at the QB position. This season, he ranks fourth among QBs with 21 rush attempts on scrambles. He’s generated 11.3 total EPA (Expected Points Added) on those scrambles, ranked sixth-best. That is largely thanks to his league-leading three rushing touchdowns on scrambles. All three of those came within five yards of the goal line, making him a dangerous red-zone threat.
Wilson is also a solid scrambler, but he isn’t on Fields’s level at this stage of his career. In 2023, Wilson generated 12.1 rushing EPA on scrambles, ranked 11th-best at the position. While that is still good, it represents 0.8 total EPA per game across his 15 starts, which is less than half of Fields’s 1.9 total EPA per game off scrambles in 2024. Wilson also failed to score a single rushing touchdown on a scramble last season, making him far less threatening in the red zone.
The Jets’ knack for long-developing sacks will be a mismatch for either quarterback, but Wilson is less likely to flip those plays into harmful scrambles than Fields, giving the Jets a better chance of maximizing their advantage in that area.
More YAC-dependent
Wilson is more dependent on yards after the catch than Fields, which could be problematic against a Jets defense that thrives upon limiting YAC.
In 2023, Wilson gained 59% of his passing yards from YAC, the third-highest rate in the league. This season, Fields has gained just 51.4% of his passing yards from YAC, ranked 19th. The league average in 2024 is 52.4%.
Switching to the more YAC-dependent quarterback plays right into the Jets’ hands, as mitigating YAC is one of their greatest defensive strengths. New York is allowing just 4.3 YAC per reception, the second-best mark in the NFL. The Jets are having much more trouble preventing yardage before the catch. They are allowing 5.9 air yards per reception, ranked fourth-worst.
By just about any measure, the Jets’ two worst games in pass defense came against Brock Purdy (Week 1) and Josh Allen (Week 6). Purdy and Allen both had a YAC rate below 50% in their game against the Jets, showing that they primarily shredded the Jets with air yardage. Fields is likelier to use this approach than Wilson, and he is more dangerous when doing so.
Fields had a YAC rate below 50% in three of his six games this year. In those games, he went 3-0 and averaged 0.06 EPA per dropback (would rank 11th-best among QBs this season). Wilson had a YAC rate below 50% in just five of his 15 games last season, going 1-4 in those games while averaging -0.13 EPA per dropback (would rank 26th).
Since Wilson has yet to play this season, we don’t know if his 2023 YAC dependency will hold in a new scheme. Perhaps his play style in 2023 was determined by Sean Payton’s offense, and Wilson’s YAC rate will end up dropping down to Fields’s neighborhood when playing in the same scheme.
However, it seems like a good bet that Wilson will continue to be highly YAC-dependent. Dating all the way back to 2017, Wilson’s YAC rate has increased every year. This could suggest he is losing faith in his arm as he ages, causing him to become less aggressive and more reliant on his playmakers.
As for Fields, his 51.4% YAC rate in 2024 is actually the highest of his four-year career. He was at a slightly lower 50.4% in 2023, so the Steelers raised his YAC dependency compared to his past tendencies. That is not a good sign regarding Wilson’s chances of lowering his YAC dependency.
We’ll have to wait and see what Wilson looks like in this offense. If his tendencies hold, though, the Jets should be thrilled. They feast on quarterbacks who try to move the ball methodically via short YAC-facilitating throws. Quarterbacks who challenge them through the air have given them more problems, and it appears Fields would have been more likely to take chances down the field.
Bounce-back opportunity
After a rough game against Josh Allen, the Jets defense has a favorable opportunity to rebound this Sunday. A quarterback who hangs onto the ball, takes a lot of sacks, and relies on YAC does not match up well against New York.
The Jets need to capitalize on the sack opportunities Wilson gifts them. Wilson won’t turn the ball over incredibly often (13 TOs in 15 games last year), but the byproduct of his risk-averse style is that he prefers to take sacks instead of taking risks. The sacks are your opportunity to make Wilson look bad. Without getting those sacks, he can still do a decent job of keeping the offense moving in a positive direction, even if he is not as explosive as he once was.
In the back end, the Jets’ linebackers and defensive backs must focus on taking smart tackling angles as Wilson relies on short throws to his playmakers. This is something he is especially likely to do early in the game as he gets his feet wet following a long absence. Don’t be overaggressive in search of big hits; anticipate the short throw, take a fundamentally sound angle, and make the stop – even if you give up a first down or two. Keep doing that, and Wilson will eventually get himself sacked to force a punt or field goal attempt.
These are things the Jets have excelled at. Will McDonald and company might not be causing constant havoc, but they are finishing the sack opportunities presented to them by the coverage. The linebackers and defensive backs have tackled well in the underneath passing game, preventing many breakaway runs after the catch.
If the Jets continue to excel at the same things they’ve been excelling at, they should be in for a strong defensive performance against Wilson. It could be tougher with D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II, and Chuck Clark sidelined, but the Jets’ secondary depth has answered the bell time and time again. They must do it one more time with their backs against the wall on Sunday Night Football, and they could hardly ask for a better matchup to pull it off.
