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Is Aaron Rodgers really the NY Jets’ best QB option?

Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets, 2025, Stats, Contracts
Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets, Getty Images, Jet X Graphic

“He’s the best they can do.”

You often hear that line from those in favor of the New York Jets retaining Aaron Rodgers in 2025.

And they very well could be right. Between a barren free agency class, a dormant trade market, and a weak draft class (in which the Jets cannot get one of the top prospects without trading up), Rodgers could end up being the Jets’ best quarterback option to win games in 2025, even after his underwhelming performance in 2024.

But the Jets might have a better option on their own roster.

Tyrod Taylor is under contract with New York for the 2025 season on the second year of his two-year contract. Though most people reading this are probably furrowing their eyebrows at the idea of Taylor being mentioned in the same breath as Rodgers, perhaps a glance at the facts will alter their outlook.

Seen below is a comparison of Taylor and Rodgers’ performance in various metrics over their past two seasons – 2023-24 for Taylor, and 2022-24 for Rodgers. For context on how each metric fares against the rest of the NFL, I listed where they would have ranked among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2024.

Aaron-Rodgers-Tyrod-Taylor-Stats-NY-Jets-2025
Stats via Pro Football Focus, ESPN, NFL Next Gen Stats, and Pro Football Reference

Given that comparison… should Rodgers really be viewed as a surefire better option than Taylor?

Now, don’t go scrolling to the comment section or pulling up the quote-tweet button just yet. I am aware that the chart above features plenty of caveats that must be considered in this conversation – and we’re about to dive into those.

Let’s dive into the context of the comparison seen above.

Sample size

The first thing we need to acknowledge is the difference in sample size.

Taylor’s numbers are comprised of 248 dropbacks. Rodgers’ sample includes 1,233 dropbacks.

This is a crucial factor in the equation. It is unlikely Taylor would maintain many of those numbers over an extended sample size. In particular, his 8.4% big-time throw rate and 3.5% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) would probably drop. Those marks put him on track to rank first and fourth, respectively, among 32 qualifiers in 2024. That sure seems optimistic for a journeyman like Taylor.

However, given that he performed to such a high level in those metrics, Taylor would likely still be better than or similar to Rodgers in both areas even if he experienced a significant decline over a larger sample. This is particularly true regarding CPOE, where Rodgers’ abysmal -3.5% mark puts him on track to rank 28th in 2024. Taylor could drop 20 spots on the CPOE leaderboard and still be more accurate than Rodgers (at least according to this metric).

Additionally, some of those numbers are not abnormal for Taylor. For instance, his career turnover-worthy throw rate is 2.2%, which is better than Rodgers’ rate over the past two seasons (2.4%) and would have ranked seventh-best among 32 qualifiers in 2024, right in between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. On top of that, Taylor’s career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 2.34, identical to Rodgers’ over the past two seasons.

While Rodgers has a much larger sample size than Taylor over the past two seasons, all it really proves is that he has become reliable at being mediocre. These are his marks in the three all-encompassing quarterback metrics and where they would have ranked among 32 qualifiers in 2024:

  • 90.8 passer rating (20th)
  • 44.8 QBR (30th)
  • -0.05 EPA/dropback (19th)

That’s an average ranking of 23rd between the three. So, if Rodgers performed like a top-23-ish quarterback over a sample of 1,233 dropbacks across his past two full seasons, it is a pretty good bet he will continue to perform at a similar level in the future. This is a 41-year-old quarterback. If anything, he should be expected to decline, as he has been gradually accumulating a plethora of injuries over the past three years.

Garbage time/Quality of support

Yes, Taylor accumulated his production with the Jets across two garbage-time appearances.

Nonetheless, Taylor’s 24 dropbacks with the Jets comprise less than 10% of his 248 dropbacks in the data sample. More than 90% of it comes from his 2023 season with the Giants.

Taylor’s reps with the Giants only add to the impressiveness of his production when compared against Rodgers. The 2023 Giants had the NFL’s 32nd-graded receiving unit and 32nd-graded pass-blocking unit, according to PFF. Taylor played more than 90% of his reps over the past two seasons with the worst supporting cast imaginable, and he still outperformed Rodgers in terms of per-play efficiency.

Comparatively, Rodgers had respectable support across his data sample. The 2022 Packers ranked 23rd in receiving grade but third-best in pass-blocking grade. The 2024 Jets ranked 22nd in receiving grade and 17th in pass-blocking grade. Neither team gave Rodgers world-beating support, but the average grade across the six units was 16th – perfectly average. That’s a far cry from the league-worst support Taylor had to deal with as a Giant.

Even if you remove Taylor’s small yet successful sample of two garbage-time appearances with the Jets in 2024, he still comes out as eerily comparable to Rodgers. Across his 11 appearances (5 starts) for the Giants in 2023, Taylor produced an 89.1 passer rating, 47.7 QBR, and -0.04 EPA per dropback. Compare that to Rodgers’ 90.5 passer rating, 48.1 QBR, and -0.05 EPA per dropback across 2022-24.

It’s nearly an identical stat line. Yes, the sample sizes are different, but so are the supporting casts.

Rodgers’ health

Those in favor of Rodgers will argue that his performance has been hampered by injuries, and he was better toward the end of the 2024 season when he got healthier.

That point actually undermines the pro-Rodgers argument, because it acknowledges the reality about Rodgers at this stage of his career: he is rarely healthy.

Even if he truly was healthier and the end of 2024 and did play better (which even that is not entirely true, as his Week 17 game against Buffalo was one of the worst games by an NFL quarterback in recent history), Rodgers cannot be expected to stay healthy for an extended period of time anymore.

Rodgers hurt his thumb in Green Bay’s fifth game of the 2022 season, and that was offered as an excuse for his poor play over the remaining 12 games of that season. He basically missed all 17 games of the 2023 season. In 2024, reports about his health were all over the map (every other week he was in “his best shape in weeks”), but for the sake of this exercise, let’s just split the season in half and say he played 9 healthy games.

That gives Rodgers 14 healthy games out of a possible 51 over the past three seasons. And as he enters a season where he will turn 42 years old, that ratio should not be expected to get much better.

So if you think Rodgers’ injuries are an excuse for his poor performance in 2024, you’re really only hurting your argument that he will perform better in 2025.

Tie goes to the less destructive presence

The point here is not to argue that Taylor will be a better player than Rodgers in 2025. While I think that could be the case, it is not something that can be definitively proven, nor is it something that can even be argued as likely given the minuscule sample size we’re basing it on.

But this is a viable conversation – and that is the main point. The fact that this conversation can be had in any capacity should make it clear to the Jets which direction they must go.

Regardless of which side you fall on, it cannot be disputed that Taylor-versus-Rodgers is a relatively close discussion in terms of what they could provide on-field in 2025. The numbers lean too far in Taylor’s favor to just brush them aside. And if the on-field discussion is remotely close, the Jets should lean toward the choice that would do less damage off the field: Taylor.

Cutting Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation would save the Jets ample cap space in the long run, and it would remove a major distraction from the building. It would allow Aaron Glenn and the Jets’ new regime to immediately walk into Florham Park and put their cultural stamp on the organization without being overshadowed by a lame duck quarterback.

As long as Rodgers is in the Jets’ building, his voice is the loudest. That will not change, no matter how much he promises to compromise for the Jets’ new regime. It is simply the reality of his star power. For a first-time head coach trying to change the culture of a franchise that has missed the playoffs 14 years in a row and is coming off one of the most colossal failures in recent NFL history… that is not a positive arrangement.

Even if you think Rodgers would be slightly better than Taylor in 2025, the minor on-field upgrade is not worth the extra cap space and extra distraction he brings to the table. And that’s the point here: at best, Rodgers can only be argued as a slightly better quarterback than Taylor, in which case, the off-field implications make Taylor the better overall option.

This would be a different discussion if it was abundantly clear that Rodgers is a substantially better on-field option going into 2025. But he’s not, and there is no metric that can be used to prove that.

Of course, though, all of this data-driven analysis will go to the wayside when Rodgers joins the Vikings and inexplicably wins his fifth MVP on the way to a second ring. Because that’s just how things go around here.

Or at least, it was how things went around here. Aaron Glenn has a chance to change that, and his track record makes him the perfect choice for such a task. But if Glenn wants to prove he is the culture-changer many believe him to be, his first move should be to ship Rodgers out the door and make it clear whose voice rings the loudest on One Jets Drive. The on-field value simply isn’t there to be worth not doing this for Glenn’s sake.

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