Regression from Todd Downing
One of the biggest questions leading into Sunday night’s game was whether offensive play caller Todd Downing would maintain the positive changes he made in his debut against Buffalo. The results were mixed.
On the positive side, Downing continue to build the New York Jets offense around 3-receiver sets rather than heavy personnel packages, which is a good thing since it is a better fit for the players on their roster. The Jets ran 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR) on 75% of their plays against Pittsburgh, their second-highest rate of the season.
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However, it was troubling to see Downing abandon the success New York had with motion against Buffalo. After using pre-snap motion on a season-high 72.9% of their plays against the Bills, the Jets used it on just 43.6% of their plays in Pittsburgh, even lower than their 31st-ranked rate of 46.5% before Downing took over.
Good pass protection provides some optimism
Despite another underwhelming performance from the Jets offense, they actually did a good job handling the biggest threat of Pittsburgh’s defense, their pass rush.
The Jets mitigated Pittsburgh’s pass rush by getting the ball out very quickly, averaging 2.46 seconds from snap to throw. This was a smart game plan from Downing, considering Pittsburgh entered the game ranked second-worst in EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback allowed on plays lasting under 2.5 seconds, compared to fifth-best on plays lasting over 2.5 seconds. We knew that the Steelers could be beat with quick passes but would feast if you held the ball, and Downing planned accordingly, so give him credit for that.
Even on plays where Rodgers did hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, the Jets tended to hold up quite well. Ultimately, Rodgers was pressured on just 20% of his dropbacks, the lowest pressure rate recorded by Pittsburgh’s defense this season.
Unfortunately, the Jets did not do a good job of capitalizing on their silencing of the Steelers’ pass rush. Whether it was due to errant throws by Rodgers, bad drops, Rodgers not being on the same page with his receiver, or a lack of separation downfield, the Jets struggled to make things happen when Rodgers was not pressured.
From a clean pocket, Rodgers was only 22-for-32 with 213 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. That’s a 71.5 passer rating with 6.7 yards per attempt, which is nowhere near good enough for a clean-pocket stat line. Some of that is on Rodgers, some of it is not (namely the interception off Garrett Wilson’s drop), but the bottom line is the Jets primarily lost this game because they did not maximize their clean-pocket chances in a game where they created plenty of them.
Still, isolated from the rest of the offensive performance, the pass protection is something that deserves credit and inspires some hope going forward.
Downsides of the pass protection plan
While the pass protection was solid overall, there are a couple of caveats that should be mentioned.
T.J. Watt primarily lined up on Morgan Moses’s side, and the Jets focused heavily on sending help his way to shut him down. It worked tremendously. Watt only had one pressure in the game. However, the cost of their dedication to Watt was leaving Tyron Smith by himself on the left side, and it led to another rough game for the rapidly declining future Hall-of-Famer.
Smith allowed a team-high three pressures while no other Jets lineman allowed more than one. Those pressures came in big spots, too, turning multiple likely completions into incompletions. Smith also had yet another penalty, committing a false start, bringing his season total to six penalties. He had three in 13 games last season.
Another problem was that the Steelers’ defensive line did a good job of adjusting once they realized the Jets were focused on getting the ball out quickly. Knowing they usually would not get enough time to reach Rodgers, they started focusing on hanging back and getting in the passing lanes. Pittsburgh’s defensive linemen combined for a whopping four pass deflections.
Overall, it was a mixed bag for the Jets’ pass protection. Smith can no longer be trusted to protect the blindside consistently, and the Steelers adjusted to stop the Jets’ heavy reliance on quick passes. Still, the Jets successfully kept Rodgers clean against one of the league’s most terrifying defensive lines. He was sacked just once (a sack that was his own fault on a well-protected play) and pressured less often than any other quarterback to face the Steelers this year. The offensive line did a great job outside of Smith.
Yes, the Jets had to get the ball out very quickly to do it, but quick passes were Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness entering the game. It was the right approach by Downing, and it accomplished the goal of keeping Rodgers protected. The Jets just did not generate the desired results between the quarterback and his receivers.
The Jets only have two pass rushers
Will McDonald is blossoming into a star pass rusher. With a sack on Sunday, he now leads all NFL edge rushers with 8.0 sacks this season. He also had an outstanding total of seven pressures, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Quinnen Williams also returned to form, recording four pressures and also drawing a holding penalty. Unfortunately, these are the only two players in green who can be trusted to win a pass-rush rep at the moment.
The rest of the Jets’ defensive linemen combined for only four pressures in Pittsburgh. No other player had more than one pressure.
Haason Reddick will be back this week, and the Jets need him badly. This defense will not be successful if only two players can consistently get after the quarterback.
Skyrocketing blitz rates
Since Week 3 (their first game after Jermaine Johnson’s injury), the Jets have the NFL’s seventh-highest blitz rate at 35.6%. This is more than double their 32nd-ranked rates of 16.3% in 2022 and 17.4% in 2023.
In Pittsburgh, the Jets had another high-blitzing game, sending 5+ pass rushers at Russell Wilson on 35.5% of his dropbacks. Those blitzes were ineffective, resulting in no sacks and a measly pressure rate of 27.3%. If you are blitzing a lot and not getting home with those blitzes, you will struggle.
Give Jeff Ulbrich credit for adjusting rather than being stubborn, but ultimately, this Jets defense will not be successful playing that brand of football. Their scheme is dependent on a strong four-man rush to be successful, and if they do not have it, they are going to have a rough time, as we’ve seen over the last two games. Whether you like Reddick or not, they need his pass-rush juice.
