Just seven games in, the New York Jets’ season feels all but over.
No matter what Aaron Rodgers says about drowning out the noise and believing or Quincy Williams says about going 1-0, the Jets are closer to scouting the 2025 draft than making any sort of playoff push.
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Of course, diehard fans of the team will continue to hope until there is nothing left to hope for. After all, just one season ago, even the Zach Wilson-led Jets somehow had a chance to push for a playoff spot in Week 15 with a 5-8 record. The AFC isn’t exactly inspiring, which is why the Jets’ +210 odds to make the playoffs (via DraftKings Sportsbook) carry an implied probability of 32.26%. It’s not really over yet.
But realistically, the chances that it’s not over are slim. The product the Jets have put on the field looks more worthy of a top-10 pick than a shot at the playoffs.
Therefore, what is there left to root for? What should Jets fans look at during the games besides praying for a miracle turnaround?
Although rooting for the Jets to win this year is obviously the crux of fandom, with the team sitting at 2-5, it’s worthwhile to start rooting for individual players. Since the Jets mortgaged at least part of their future salary cap and draft capital over the last two seasons, they will need their current nucleus of players to prove they can be key pieces beyond this season.
Key cornerstones playing like it
The Jets had many young stars on their roster heading into this season. None of them are performing up to standard.
Jermaine Johnson’s Achilles tear prevented the Jets from seeing whether he could replicate and build upon his breakout 2023 season. But the others have flat-out underachieved.
Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson’s drop that went straight into the arms of Beanie Bishop Jr. was emblematic of his season: not up to standard. He ranks 10th in the NFL in receiving yards but leads all receivers in targets, leading to a paltry 6.2 yards per target, which is somehow worse than his mark last season (6.4).
Even if Wilson will never be the elite receiver Jets fans and the media crowned him as, the Jets need him to get back to his 2022 standard, at the very least. His game against Buffalo was an encouraging sign, but even then, two key balls that he was unable to catch in the end zone were plays a No. 1 receiver must make. He regressed to his season-long funk against Pittsburgh.
Sauce Gardner
Sauce Gardner’s season has mostly been uneventful aside from a horrible game against Tennessee. His 0.79 yards per cover snap allowed certainly doesn’t come close to his 0.43 mark from a season ago, but it ranks a respectable 23rd out of 82 qualified corners (min. 150 cover snaps).
Far more alarmingly, his 9.2 yards per target rank 73rd. Gardner’s calling card is preventing the big play, but when teams have gone in his direction this season, they have often come up with big plays, including costly pass interference penalties.
Furthermore, the Jets need Gardner to step his overall game up. His run defense and tackling continue to be putrid, and it’s costing the Jets dearly. After a decent rookie year in both of those areas, Gardner looks checked out as a tackler and takes consistently bad angles in the run game. His 38.7 Pro Football Focus run defense grade ranks 65th out of 67 cornerbacks with at least 100 run defense snaps.
Quinnen Williams
Quinnen Williams can no longer be considered young by NFL standards, as he will be 27 in December. But he is another woefully underachieving Jets star.
Williams’ 9.8% pressure rate is a far cry from his second-ranked 15.1% rate a season ago. His 55.1 PFF run defense grade would be the lowest of his career a year after he led all defensive tackles with a 90.4 mark. He’s not getting double-teamed more often, either. In many ways, this may be the worst football Williams has ever played.
Breece Hall
Breece Hall has put up a lot of yardage in the last two weeks but continues not to perform to his standard. His 2.96 yards after contact per attempt rank 21st out of 33 qualifiers (min. 60 carries), and his eight missed tackles forced in the run game rank 31st. Accordingly, his 37.3 PFF elusiveness rating ranks 28th.
Hall has shown more elusiveness in the passing game over the last two weeks, forcing six missed tackles on 11 receptions. Still, he continues to fall at first contact in the run game and cannot break the one tackle necessary to break a big run. He posted -18 rush yards over expected (RYOE) against Pittsburgh, averaging 3.2 yards per carry when his expected yards per carry was 4.9.
Even against Buffalo, when Hall had 30 RYOE, he posted positive RYOE on just 33.3% of his rushes, far worse than the 42.5% weekly average.
The Jets’ run-blocking has started to pick it up over the past two weeks, but Hall hasn’t necessarily followed suit. He will always be a threat in the receiving game, but this remains far from his standard over the last two seasons.
An injury certainly may be the cause (his 19.62 max speed on his 57-yard catch-and-run against Pittsburgh was nearly a full mph lower than his 2023 max on a similar 50-yard catch-and-run). The Jets really need Hall to look like his former self, not just for this season, but for the future.
Growth from other young players
So far, Joe Douglas’ 2023-24 drafts also look underwhelming. But the Jets need the three players taken in the first two rounds of those drafts not just to be key contributors, but to step up all areas of their game.
Will McDonald
Statistically, Will McDonald has broken out as a pass rusher this season. His 15.9% pressure rate ranks 12th out of 74 qualified edge rushers, and he leads all edge rushers with eight sacks. (To be sure, at least one of those sacks was bogus, but does anyone inspect other edge rushers’ sacks to see how legitimate they are?)
Still, McDonald’s 12.2% pass rush win rate ranks 42nd, which means he’s not necessarily winning on a regular basis. He is simply exceptionally good at turning pressures into sacks, as 30.8% of his pressures have been quarterback takedowns, the ninth-highest rate among qualifiers.
For McDonald to truly take the next step, he needs to win on his pass rush reps more often. Being opportunistic is certainly a skill in the NFL (and one that gets players paid handsomely), but consistency is also critical.
Furthermore, McDonald’s run defense has been putrid. His 34.2 PFF run defense grade ranks last out of 66 edge defenders with at least 75 run defense snaps. That matches the eye test.
The Jets let Bryce Huff walk for precisely this reason in the offseason. (Mind you, Huff is only one year older than McDonald.) McDonald is playing in their base defense out of necessity. But will he be relegated to pass rush specialist duties for all of his career?
If so, McDonald will need to reach world-class dominance as a pass rusher to justify the first-round pick Douglas spent on him.
Joe Tippmann
Joe Tippmann has had a somewhat uneven season, looking terrific in some games and incredibly shaky in others.
Tippmann ranks 9th out of 30 qualified centers (min. 100 run-blocking snaps) with a 71.6 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade. His pass-blocking is somewhat more suspect; although his 2.6% pressure rate ranks 11th among centers, his 6.4% pressure rate in true pass sets (plays where there is no play-action, screen, quick release, short dropback, or fewer than four pass rushers) ranks 20th.
Furthermore, four of the eight pressures Tippmann has allowed (50%) were sacks or quarterback hits, tied for the sixth-worst among centers. Generally, when he’s been beaten, he’s been beaten pretty badly.
Overall, this season has been a mixed bag for Tippmann. The Jets could use improvements in his pass-blocking and snapping, which remains underratedly erratic.
Olu Fashanu
Olu Fashanu’s first two starts in the NFL were pretty disastrous. His 7.6% pressure rate ranks 60th out of 69 tackles with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps, and his 16.7% true pass set pressure rate ranks 66th. His run-blocking wasn’t much better, as his 56.6 grade ranked 62nd out of 83 tackles with at least 40 run-blocking snaps.
Fashanu’s struggles in the run game were expected, but his pass-blocking woes are concerning. Was it just because he played on the right side, not his natural position, against two heavy blitzing teams?
Fashanu will undoubtedly see the field again this season with a pair of tackles in their 30s. If Jeff Ulbrich is self-honest, he should replace Tyron Smith with Fashanu sooner rather than later, as Smith is clearly cooked. Since Fashanu will undoubtedly be the Jets’ starting left tackle next season, seeing if Fashanu can be at least a slightly below-average but not hideous player in his rookie season.
Anyone else???
Besides those three players, the Jets’ last two draft classes appear barren. Braelon Allen had a nice run over a few games and looks like a legitimate player in the NFL, but he likely will not get significant playing time with Breece Hall in front of him.
The Jets’ other draft picks from 2023-24 were OT Carter Warren, RB Israel Abanikanda, LB Zaire Barnes, CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse, TE Zack Kuntz, WR Malachi Corley, QB Jordan Travis, RB Isaiah Davis, CB Qwan’tez Stiggers, and S Jaylen Key.
Kuntz and Key are on the practice squad, while Travis is on the non-football injury list. Barnes is on injured reserve for the second consecutive season. Abanikanda has been inactive all year, while Corley has seen one offensive snap all year and now has a string of inactive games. Isaiah Davis is a returner, and a poor one at that.
Can the Jets get contributions from anyone in those draft classes? Excuses can pile up about draft picks being dart throws, but at some point, the Jets need contributors from these players. Perhaps these players can develop like Jamien Sherwood has, but Douglas’ current track record is quite ugly.
It looks like Corley will be relegated to the inactive list as long as Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. Would that have been the case with any receiver the Jets picked in the third round? Or did they take a developmental prospect in an all-in season?
Perhaps the options were all developmental, as none of the receivers taken after Corley in the third or fourth rounds have been all that impactful. But why did the Jets trade up for Corley for him to sit on the bench? And what has Xavier Gipson done that Corley cannot?
Of the remaining picks in those classes, Jarrick Bernard-Converse and Qwan’tez Stiggers seem to have the best chances of making an impact. If the Jets approach the trade deadline at 3-6, would they consider moving D.J. Reed?
Reed will be a free agent after the season and is all but guaranteed not to re-sign with the Jets. Brandin Echols is also a free agent. Shouldn’t they examine their other young options to see what they have?
Perhaps the player with the greatest chance of making a difference is undrafted free agent Leonard Taylor III. Taylor was inexplicably inactive for three of the Jets’ first four games this season but has been active since. He is a poor run defender but has made an impact as a pass rusher in very limited action, posting five pressures on 37 pass rush snaps.
Other than Quinnen Williams, the Jets have no other defensive tackles under contract past 2024 besides Taylor. He is incredibly gifted as a pass rusher. They should increase his role far beyond a 30% snap share and see what he can do.
After all, as poor as Taylor’s run defense has been (48.4), every single other Jets defensive tackle besides Williams has a worse run defense grade. Therefore, there is zero downside to playing Taylor at a much higher rate. The Jets would never do this, but it is worthwhile to have Taylor start instead of Kinlaw.
Other starters
Tony Adams is a restricted free agent after the season. Jamien Sherwood is a free agent. John Simpson has one year left on his deal. These three players could be tremendous helps to the Jets’ future if they play well.
Sherwood has been a revelation for Jets fans (although not Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett, who was highly impressed by Sherwood last season) as the team’s starting middle linebacker. His 74.3 PFF run defense grade ranks in the 72nd percentile among linebackers, and he ranks third in yards per cover snap (0.6) and fourth in yards per target (4.9) allowed.
If Sherwood can continue his excellent play, the Jets will need to re-sign him as their middle linebacker for years to come. (Douglas may want to consider an in-season extension to keep his price reasonable, rather as he failed to do with Bryce Huff last season.)
The Jets will need to make a decision on Adams’ restricted free agency next offseason. As he was an undrafted free agent, the only realistic options are a second-round tender, the right-of-first-refusal tender, or a non-tender. The Jets placed a second-round tender on Bryce Huff in 2023, but is Adams really worth that? He will need to prove it with his play.
Adams’ coverage has been solid this season. He leads all safeties with a 46% forced incompletion rate (meaning he had a pass breakup or caused an incompletion with tight coverage) and ranks second with five pass breakups.
Adams has allowed a high yards-per-reception total (14.8), which means he’s given up a few big plays, and his targeted passer rating is 107.4. Still, he generally has tougher coverage assignments than typical safeties, as the Jets match him up against receivers fairly often. He’s held up admirably.
The bigger problems are Adams’ run defense and tackling. His 58.6 PFF run defense grade ranks 47th out of 66 qualified safeties, and his 13.2% missed tackle rate ranks 41st. The Jets need to see improvements in these areas to at least average.
PFF may be wrong about Simpson not allowing any sacks, but he’s been solid overall. His 2% pressure rate is the second-best among 68 qualified guards, and his 2.8% true pass set pressure rate ranks first. His 14th-ranked 73.9 run-blocking grade showcases a two-way skill set.
Even if PFF is overrating him significantly, he has still been, at worst, an above-average guard. If he can keep this up, he’ll be a cornerstone of their offensive line at a pittance of a price ($6 million per season).
Obviously, it’s not time to throw in the towel on the season yet. But given the Jets’ 2-5 record and the limited shelf life of the Jets’ veteran players, it is worthwhile to root for the growth of these individual players to provide a sense of hope for the future even if this all-in season continues to tank.
