The New York Jets’ 2024 season is all but over.
Perhaps the next few seasons are, as well. But the one way the Jets can ensure a repeat performance in 2025 is by bringing back the individuals who got them into this mess — starting with, of course, the quarterback.
The Jets sacrificed their present and future for Aaron Rodgers. Even after he tore his Achilles, they practically coronated him and put all their faith in him. It is now apparent that faith was for naught.
Rodgers may not be completely “cooked” in the literal sense of the phrase (although that can be argued, too), but he is certainly not anywhere near the level of play to take a team to the playoffs, let alone compete for a championship. For the Jets’ purposes, after everything they invested in him, that is “cooked.”
Here are Rodgers’ statistics and rankings among 33 qualified passers (statistics from Pro Football Reference):
- 61.6% completion percentage (29th)
- 6.7 yards per attempt (24th)
- 4.2% touchdown percentage (13th)
- 2.5% interception percentage (19th)
- 44% success rate (19th)
- 85.1 passer rating (21st)
- 50.3 QBR (23rd)
- 5.83 net yards per attempt (22nd)
- 5.58 adjusted net yards per attempt (22nd)
- 17.6% bad throw rate (28th)
- 65.8% on-target rate (19th)
Rodgers is below average in every category besides touchdown percentage. His average ranking in these categories is 21.7. With that level of play, maybe the Jets should be slightly better than 2-6, but not much better.
This should lead to only one conclusion: Aaron Rodgers should not be the Jets’ quarterback in 2025.
Running it back in 2024 was one thing. Rodgers’ 2024 salary was guaranteed anyway. It’s not as if Joe Douglas loaded up on beefy contracts for this season; the Jets actually spent the seventh-lowest total amount on free agents in the offseason. Douglas signed many veterans to one-year deals that the Jets could move on from.
But running it back again in 2025 would be foolish. Woody Johnson said it himself: doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. The Jets have seen all they need to see from Rodgers (and the rest of the veterans they signed). The best thing they can do is cut their losses and move on.
Cap ramifications
Over the Cap and Spotrac have some discrepancies in how they break down Rodgers’ contract and the cap ramifications of moving on from him after the 2024 season. Using both sites as a guide, this is my understanding of how the cap hits and dead cap charges would play out.
The “other bonus” listed from 2025-29 is an option bonus the Jets can choose to pick up or decline before the 2025 regular season.
- If the Jets decline the option and release Rodgers, the “other bonus” will become null and void and won’t count against the Jets’ cap. However, the prorated signing bonus from 2025-28 will accelerate to the 2025 cap, leaving the Jets with a dead cap charge of $49 million. If they release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation, they will have a dead cap charge of $14 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026.
- If the Jets pick up the option, Rodgers’ 2025 cap hit will be $23.5 million (his $2.5 million base salary, $14 million of his signing bonus, and $7 million of his option bonus). However, in 2026, all the other bonuses will accelerate onto the cap, leaving the Jets with a 2026 dead cap charge of $63 million.
In other words, the most economical option for the Jets would be to release Rodgers after the season with a post-June 1 designation. If he retires, he can do so post-June 1 for the same reason.
Bringing Rodgers back in 2025 would counter every sane notion of football management. Even if Woody Johnson still holds on to the hopes and dreams for 2024, that looming $63 million dead cap charge in 2026 should change his mind. At least, if the Jets have a general manager with any influence over Johnson (as it likely won’t be Joe Douglas).
It’s all in the Jets’ hands, too. Even if Rodgers wants to play, if the Jets decline his option bonus and release him, he’s a free agent. He has no say in the matter.
Let Rodgers play out this season. Then let him go. Make this just a two-year nightmare in the sorry history of the Jets rather than doubling down on a protracted mess.
