The New York Jets snapped their five-game losing streak just in time for the fanbase to buy back into the team’s playoff hopes. The Jets not only have their mojo back, but they also have the easiest remaining schedule in the conference. With a relatively weak field of competition in the AFC, Jets fans are once again invested in the chase for a playoff berth.
The Jets still essentially have control of their own destiny. If the win the remainder of their games, they will not need any help to earn a playoff spot, barring a miracle. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Jets are expected to have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs if they win out and finish 11-6.
Even if the Jets lose just one game, they should be fine. Depending on who the loss comes against, the NYT simulator expects the Jets to have somewhere from a 94% chance (if the loss comes against Indianapolis) to a 99% chance (if the loss comes against an NFC team) if they finish 10-7.
Ten wins is the goal if New York wants to avoid needing significant help from the outside. Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, a 10+ win team has never finished below 7th place in the conference. It would be shocking if 10 wins were not enough for the Jets to get in, especially in a year where the NFC is much stronger than the AFC.
If the Jets lose two games and finish 9-8, they will still have a realistic chance of getting into the dance, although their odds will vary greatly depending on who they lose to. Regardless, they will absolutely need some help to get in.
According to the NYT simulator, the Jets’ chances would range from 44% (if their losses come against Indianapolis and Miami) to 80% (if their losses come against two NFC teams) if they finish 9-8. In either event, some things will have to break the Jets’ way to push them into the bracket.
Alas, that brings us to today’s New York Jets rooting guide. Which Week 9 results would increase the Jets’ odds of making the playoffs?
@Bills (6-2) over Dolphins (2-5)
The Jets squandered their opportunity to compete for the AFC East in Week 6. Now, it’s time to turn their attention toward the wild card.
With that in mind, it would be more beneficial for the Jets if Buffalo defeated Miami today. The Dolphins still have one fewer loss than the Jets. With Tua Tagovailoa back in the fold, the Dolphins are just as capable of making a late push for a wild card spot as the Jets. They are one of New York’s most serious threats.
Miami lost to Arizona on a last-second field goal in Tagovailoa’s return last week. That was a pivotal result for the Jets, as a Dolphins win would have given Miami a chance to reach .500 today (and potentially take possession of the 7th seed).
Instead, the Dolphins are now staring at 2-6 if they cannot get a road upset against the surging Bills, who are 3-0 at home while scoring 38.3 points per game.
The Jets still have both of their matchups against Miami remaining. Those games will be pivotal regardless of what Miami does in its other games. Still, it’s always good to see one of your wild card competitors lose.
Raiders (2-6) over @Bengals (3-5)
The Raiders are technically just as much in the AFC wild card hunt as any of these other teams, but with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, no Davante Adams, and the fifth-worst point differential in the NFL, the Raiders are not a serious threat to win enough games for a playoff spot.
The 3-5 Bengals, however, are very much capable of making that kind of run. Like the Jets, they are a talented team that has underperformed thus far. They have the potential to get hot and make a push for the playoffs.
For that reason, it would be better for the Jets if Las Vegas picked up the road upset in Cincinnati. The Bengals are more likely to be a threat to the Jets’ playoff hopes when January rolls around.
If the Bengals lose today, they’d fall to 1-4 in the conference, which would be the worst mark in the entire AFC. The Jets are currently 3-4 in the conference. Considering the Jets and Bengals will not play each other this year, it would be huge for the Jets’ eventual tiebreaker hopes over Cincinnati if the Bengals dropped a home conference game today.
@Browns (2-6) over Chargers (4-3)
If the spark provided by Jameis Winston is for real, the Browns very well could be a serious threat in the AFC wild card race down the line, as Cleveland does still possess a solid defense (although not as great as last year’s). The Browns cannot be written off as a future threat to the Jets’ hopes, especially since they only have two conference losses to the Jets’ four.
However, the Chargers hold the AFC’s seventh seed at 4-3. They are the team New York is currently chasing, making them the obvious preference to lose this game. If the Chargers lose and the Colts lose (a game we’ll get to), the AFC’s seventh seed would belong to a 4-4 team after nine weeks of football, leaving the door wide open for slow starters like the Jets to fly back into the race.
Los Angeles has a difficult stretch later in the season (Weeks 12-16) that features five consecutive games against teams that are currently .500 or better. Their next three games, starting today, are against teams below .500. This upcoming stretch is their best chance to rack up some wins and build a cushion in the AFC wild card race, so if they lose today, it could be damning for them in the long run.
Additionally, the Browns have the most difficult remaining schedule in the AFC (.580), so even if they win this game, there is a reasonable chance they will drop out of the race at some point.
Chargers losses are more valuable for the Jets – especially in these AFC games, as they only have two conference losses so far. Like the Bengals, the Jets do not play the Chargers this year, so it’s the conference-record tiebreaker that would come into play if they finish tied.
@Ravens (5-3) over Broncos (5-3)
The Jets’ Week 4 loss to Denver could be a killer when it’s all said and done. That’s why the Jets badly need the Broncos to start flaming out.
Luckily, the Broncos have a treacherous road ahead. They have the second-most difficult remaining schedule in the AFC (.566), starting with today’s road trip to face an angry Ravens team that just lost in Cleveland. After this week, the Broncos will travel to Kansas City followed by a home game against the Falcons. They also have another game against Kansas City later on.
Baltimore will likely get it together and win enough games to separate from the Jets. The Broncos, however, are on track to finish in the same neighborhood as what the Jets are aiming for. With their head-to-head win over New York, they’d be guaranteed to win a tiebreaker over the Jets. A big losing streak by Denver would vastly increase the Jets’ chances of getting into the dance if they finish 9-8.
@Vikings (5-2) over Colts (4-4)
Anytime an NFC team faces an AFC team, it’s a no-brainer to root for the NFC team. This is a particularly important game for the Jets, though.
The Colts are one of the two 4-win teams in the AFC at the moment. They are tied with the Chargers in the win column, but Los Angeles has one fewer loss.
If the Chargers lose in Cleveland, the Colts will have a chance to seize possession of the seventh seed at 5-4 with a win in Minnesota. However, if both the Chargers and Colts lose, the seventh seed will remain in the Chargers’ possession at 4-4.
As mentioned earlier, it would be extremely encouraging for the AFC’s slow starters if they exited Week 9 looking up at a measly .500 team in the final playoff spot. Compare that to the NFC, where the seventh seed currently belongs to a 5-2 team.
New York will host Indianapolis in Week 11. In terms of potential tiebreaker implications, it is the most pivotal remaining game on the Jets’ schedule. The Colts are one of the likeliest teams to end up tied with the Jets for a wild card spot. Having already lost to Denver, the Jets cannot afford another head-to-head loss with a potential competitor.
In the meantime, every Colts loss helps.
Somewhat worth mentioning
@Titans (1-6) over Patriots (2-6): These two teams are both tied with the Jets in the loss column. The Jets have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tennessee while they do not have it over New England, so it would be preferable if Tennessee got hot instead of New England. It seems safe to say that neither team is likely to push for a playoff spot, though, so this game didn’t deserve its own section.
@Eagles (5-2) over Jaguars (2-6): The Jaguars would tie the Jets with a win, and they’re facing an NFC team, so it’s a no-brainer that the Jets would rather see them lose. However, considering the Jets have a game against Jacksonville later on, they have full control of their ability to stay in front of Jacksonville in the standings, so I don’t think it’s worth wasting much of your breath on rooting for them to lose.
