On Sunday morning, we broke down the ideal rooting guide for New York Jets fans on an off day for their victorious squad. The idea was to pinpoint the results that would improve the Jets’ odds of making the playoffs.
Here are the results from the five most important games:
- Bills over Dolphins: ✅ (BUF 30, MIA 27)
- Vikings over Colts: ✅ (MIN 21, IND 13)
- Ravens over Broncos: ✅ (BAL 41, DEN 10)
- Browns over Chargers: ❌ (CLE 10, LAC 27)
- Raiders over Bengals: ❌ (LV 24, CIN 41)
Out of the five games with the most direct impact on the Jets’ path to the playoffs, New York got the preferred result in three of them.
Let’s talk a little bit about how the Jets’ playoff hopes are affected by Sunday’s results.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, these were the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs before Sunday’s games:
- If Jets finish 11-6: >99%
- If Jets finish 10-7: Ranges from minimum 94% (if the loss is to IND) to maximum 99% (if the loss is to NFC team)
- If Jets finish 9-8: Ranges from minimum 44% (if losses are to IND and MIA) to maximum 80% (if both losses are to NFC team)
Here are their chances after Sunday’s games:
- If Jets finish 11-6: >99%
- If Jets finish 10-7: Ranges from minimum 92% (if the loss is to IND) to maximum 97% (if the loss is to NFC team)
- If Jets finish 9-8: Ranges from minimum 42% (if losses are to IND and MIA) to maximum 78% (if both losses are to NFC team)
As you can see, the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs in the event of a hot finish to the season have barely changed after Sunday’s results. They are still all but guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out and finish 11-6. If they finish 10-7 or 9-8, their chances experienced a very slight decline.
Ultimately, Vegas seems to think the Jets’ odds of making the playoffs have not changed at all after Sunday’s results. New York’s odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook remain +300 (implied probability of 25%), the same as they were going into Sunday.
While the Jets’ playoff hopes are not noticeably better or worse after Sunday’s games, their path to the playoffs has become clearer.
If the Jets win out, they are in. For mathematical purposes, you have to leave a non-zero chance that 11 wins is not enough, but I’ll just tell you right now that the Jets will make the playoffs if they win the remainder of their games.
If the Jets finish 10-7, they are very likely to make the playoffs. It’s possible that multiple other wild card contenders could forge an equally hot finish to push the Jets out, but now that there are seven playoff spots, that is highly unlikely. A 10-win AFC team has never finished below 7th place in the conference since the league moved to 30 teams in 1995. The AFC is weak this year, so that is likely to continue.
As long as the Jets lose no more than one game, they should be fine, barring a miracle. The big question is whether they would make the bracket if they go 6-2 to finish 9-8.
The first factor in this equation is who the Jets lose to. As seen above, the Jets’ odds of making the playoffs at 9-8 change drastically depending on this variable.
The scenario of going 9-8 with losses to the Colts and another AFC team is daunting. Losing to Indianapolis, who is currently 4-5, would give the Jets two head-to-head losses against fellow wild card contenders (Denver being the other). The Jets would have to finish with a better record outright than both teams to have a chance of getting in. Even if they did that, their conference record would be 5-6, which might not be enough to win a tiebreaker against teams the Jets will not play this year like the Bengals and Chargers.
The Jets would have a better shot if they paired their Colts loss with an NFC loss, as their 6-5 conference record might be enough to edge out the Bengals if the Jets manage to finish with a better record outright than Indianapolis and Denver. It would be even better if the Jets lost to a different AFC team instead of the Colts, as it would push Indy further out of the race and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.
If the Jets’ two losses come to NFC teams, they will be in a pretty solid position. This would mean they went 4-0 against the AFC, giving them a final conference record of 7-4, which would have a strong chance of beating teams like the Bengals and Chargers. It also would mean they defeated the Colts, clinching the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. In this scenario, the Jets’ primary fear would be failing to have an outright better record than the Broncos.
Assuming the Jets beat Indianapolis, their only other fear at 9-8 would be the Bengals. First and foremost, considering Cincinnati is currently one game ahead of the Jets at 4-5, they are easily capable of finishing with an outright better record, potentially leaving the Jets out of the playoff picture at 9-8 unless the Chargers fall off and finish short of 10 wins (which could happen, as they do have a tough stretch of games coming up later). Secondly, if the Jets and Bengals tie at 9-8 for the final spot, the Bengals could win the conference tiebreaker, or it could even go down to common games.
Cincinnati currently has a 2-3 conference record while the Jets sit at 3-4. With one fewer conference loss than the Jets, they are capable of winning that tiebreaker. If they tie in this area, the tiebreaker moves on to common games.
The Jets and Bengals have four common opponents this season: New England, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Denver. The Jets have already finished their slate against these teams, going 2-3. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has only played one of its five games against these teams, which was a loss to New England. They must go 3-1 against Pittsburgh (2x), Tennessee, and Denver to beat the Jets, or 2-2 to tie them. If the two teams tie in common games, the tiebreaker moves to strength of victory. I won’t even go down that rabbit hole.
Here’s a very basic way of boiling down the Jets’ playoff outlook:
- 8-0: In
- 7-1: Extremely strong chance
- 6-2 with two NFC losses: Solid chance
- 6-2 with one NFC loss and non-Colts AFC loss: Decent chance
- 6-2 with Colts loss and NFC loss: Middling chance
- 6-2 with Colts loss and AFC loss: Weak chance
Miami’s loss to Buffalo was big for the Jets. The two teams are now tied in the loss column, and with two head-to-head matchups remaining, the Jets control their own destiny to stay ahead of the Dolphins. Sweeping Miami would ideally be a part of the Jets’ hot finish. However, even if they split the two games, the Jets should have a good chance of finishing with a better record outright in the event that they finish 6-2 or better, now that Miami is down at 2-6.
Thanks to the Colts’ loss in Minnesota, the Jets now control their own destiny over Indianapolis, as well. With the two teams facing off in Week 11, as long as the Jets win that game, they only need to finish with an equal record to the Colts in all other games to stay ahead of them in the standings.
Denver’s loss in Baltimore was also pivotal. As we touched on above, it’s imperative that the Jets finish with a better record outright than the Broncos, as they are positioned to knock the Jets out of a potential tiebreaker scenario thanks to that ugly Week 4 win. Every Broncos loss is important for the Jets to maximize their odds of getting into the dance. Denver has the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the AFC (.552), featuring two games against Kansas City, so the Broncos are due to lose some games.
The Bengals were heavily favored to win at home against a lowly Raiders team, anyway, so Cincinnati’s win is not devastating. The Bengals’ greatest chances to lose games are still ahead. Five of their final eight games are on the road, and they have a remaining strength-of-schedule of .522. With two remaining games against Pittsburgh, one against Baltimore (away), and one against the Chargers (away), they will need to get hot through a difficult stretch if they want to make a push for the playoffs. Compare this to the Jets, who have a remaining SOS of .435, an even split of home/away games, and only two remaining games against teams with winning records.
The Chargers are starting to look like a good bet to finish with 10+ wins and secure one of the top two wild cards along with whoever does not win the AFC North out of Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Jim Harbaugh’s squad plays dominant defense and has a great quarterback. Don’t punch their playoff ticket just yet, as the toughest part of L.A.’s schedule is yet to come (five straight .500+ teams from Weeks 12-16), but they are in a very good spot. It would open new possibilities for the Jets if the Chargers smacked into a wall and finished with under 10 wins, as the Jets have a chance to beat them in a conference-record tiebreaker since the two teams will not play this season, but for now, boasting the fourth-best point differential in the AFC, they look like a team that should be expected to continue winning.
None of this will mean a darn thing if the Jets don’t go out and win their own games. The NFC West-leading Cardinals, winners of three straight, await the Jets on the other end of a cross-country road trip.
