Aaron Rodgers got his way — a usual occurrence during his New York Jets tenure. The question is whether it will even matter.
The Jets traded receiver Mike Williams to the Pittsburgh Steelers in return for a 2025 fifth-round pick. The writing was on the wall after Rodgers called out Williams for running the wrong route on his game-sealing interception against the Bills.
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Many Jets fans were not happy with the move. It seems like selling out a useful player when they chose not to sell off altogether. Keeping D.J. Reed, for example, but trading Williams seemingly signals a half-in, half-out approach.
Furthermore, trading Williams seems a little odd after Allen Lazard went on injured reserve last week due to a chest injury. The Jets could be comfortable enough in the Davante Adams-Garrett Wilson-Lazard trio in 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) personnel. But with Lazard down, Xavier Gipson will truly be their No. 3 receiver.
Gipson has precisely four receptions for 23 yards this season (although one was a one-yard touchdown from Rodgers). Still, Malachi Corley seemingly justified the Jets’ lack of belief in him last week with his absurd throw-away short of the goal line, so there really isn’t anyone else to take the No. 3 role.
How will this impact the Jets’ offense?
In some ways, it’s hard to say. After Rodgers called Williams out, the receiver saw only four targets over the next three games, including a complete zero on the stat sheet against the Patriots. On the season, Williams has only 21 targets, and he had two catches over his last four games. Statistically, it’s not that much of a loss.
Rodgers’ target share won’t change that much. Over the last three weeks, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson have combined for 41%, 53.6%, and 65.6% of the targets. With or without Williams, the pair will likely see somewhere between 55-65% of Rodgers’ targets as long as Lazard is out.
How will the remaining targets spread out? Just as they have over the last two weeks without Lazard. Whatever minimal targets Williams commanded could just as easily go to Adams or Wilson. Gipson’s target share won’t necessarily change at all. Maybe Tyler Conklin or Breece Hall will see an extra target or two.
The interesting part of losing Williams is how it will change the Jets’ receiver alignment. Specifically, who will take the primary slot reps vs. out wide? Williams played 75.1% of his snaps out wide, and no other Jets receiver has been at more than 64.6%.
The Jets have been in 11 personnel on 75.7% of their pass attempts since Todd Downing took over as the play-caller, which means they will play with a slot wide receiver most of the time.
Since joining the Jets, Adams has played in the slot on 45.1% of his snaps. Wilson is at 34.6% for the season, and Gipson is at 56.9%. That could mean the Jets will simply rotate their players in and out of the slot, perhaps lowering Adams’ rate somewhat.
The thing is that the Jets want to get Wilson into the slot as often as possible. He’s been far more effective in the slot.
- Slot: 2.5 yards per route run, 9.8 yards per target, 0.14 EPA per target
- Wide: 1.6 yards per route run, 5.8 yards per target, -0.03 EPA per target
Adams, on the other hand, has very similar numbers out wide and in the slot this season. Therefore, Adams’ slot rate will likely regress — maybe not to his 22.5% career average, but closer to 30% than 45%.
The problem is that at 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds, Gipson cannot play outside. He presents no threat to the defense there. Williams, at least, gave a cornerback something to think about.
Since the Jets likely won’t get Gipson too much more involved in the offense in terms of targets, that’s not necessarily a problem. However, he played 61.4% of his snaps in the slot last year when he was a starter in 11 personnel beginning in Week 9. That means he will likely continue to command slot reps, pushing Wilson and Adams outside.
It is worth noting that the Jets have lined up Tyler Conklin out wide on 9.2% of his snaps and Breece Hall on 10.3%. This opens up more than one slot spot.
Another area where losing Williams might seem to make a difference is run-blocking. Williams is 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds; his big frame would give him a natural advantage as a blocker over Gipson. However, Williams’ Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade is 36.4, ranking 103rd out of 108 qualifiers (min. 70 snaps).
Gipson had a 50.1 PFF grade on 123 run-blocking snaps in 2023, ranking 76th out of 118 (min. 120 snaps). Gipson certainly isn’t a good run-blocker, but Williams was worse this year.
In general, losing a receiver with 12 catches in 9 games isn’t that big of an issue. The biggest point to monitor until Lazard returns is how the Jets split their slot snaps.
We could also see Todd Downing dial back the 11 personnel usage and go with 12 personnel more often to keep Gipson off the field. This would make the loss of Williams even less of a factor but might hurt the Jets’ offense more than playing Gipson.
One way or another, if Rodgers didn’t trust Williams, having him around wasn’t useful for the Jets regardless of Williams’ talent. Getting a fifth-round pick in return for that is a better return than the Jets could have expected considering Williams’ age, salary, and lack of production.
