The 3-6 New York Jets have a must-win game today (the first of many “must-wins” as long as they keep winning), so Jets fans will be focusing their rooting energy on their own team rather than others.
However, it’s a rare 4:25 p.m. ET start for the boys in green, giving Jets fans an opportunity to use their rooting powers to influence the 1 p.m. slate before they brace themselves for their weekly emotional roller-coaster.
Here are all of the games today (November 10) that will significantly impact the Jets’ playoff chances, and the preferred outcomes that Jets fans should root for.
Bills (7-2, -3.5) over @Colts (4-5) – 1 p.m.
The 4-5 Colts are one of two teams standing in between the Jets and the seventh-seeded Broncos, joining the 4-6 Bengals, who lost on Thursday.
If the Colts lose and the Jets win, it would create a three-way tie for eighth place between Indianapolis, New York, and Cincinnati. It’s a tiebreaker that New York would win; the Jets would have a better conference record than the Bengals and a better record in common games than the Colts. Therefore, the Jets would exit Week 10 just one spot out of the playoffs.
Even if the Colts defeat Buffalo, the Jets would have the opportunity to surpass Indianapolis next week (provided they defeat Arizona), as the two teams will meet at MetLife Stadium. The Jets can win that game to secure the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts.
Because of next week’s meeting, it is not totally imperative for the Colts to lose today, but every loss by a wild card competitor will help New York in the long run. Even if the Jets win next week, you never know how many wins the Colts could end up with. Since they remain one game ahead of the Jets, it would be preferable for them to lose this week.
Plus, every loss by the Colts increases the likelihood they concede their pursuit of competing in 2024 and re-insert Anthony Richardson at quarterback for developmental purposes. Richardson undoubtedly has a higher ceiling than Joe Flacco, but based on his 44% completion rate this year, he is clearly a worse short-term option. Given that the Colts lost and failed to score an offensive touchdown in Flacco’s first start after benching Richardson, if they were to struggle again this week, it’s not inconceivable they could go back to Richardson for next week’s game against New York, which would be a positive for the Jets.
@Chiefs (8-0, -7.5) over Broncos (5-4) – 1 p.m.
Denver, which holds the seventh seed at 5-4, is the team that New York will primarily be chasing the rest of the way. Not only do the Jets sit two games back of the Broncos, but Denver owns the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to its ugly Week 4 win at MetLife Stadium, meaning the Jets must finish with an outright better record to surpass the Broncos. Every loss by Denver is massive for the Jets’ playoff hopes.
Denver has the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the AFC (.557), mostly because of two remaining games against the 8-0 Chiefs. One of those games comes today as the Broncos make their way out to Missouri, where the Broncos have lost eight straight games. Their last win at Arrowhead came in 2015 with Peyton Manning at quarterback.
As a Jets fan, you really want to see Denver lose this one, as they will have some favorable opportunities for wins coming up. They still have remaining games against the Raiders, Browns, and Colts. Four of their final seven games are at home.
The Broncos are a team teetering on the fence between contenders and pretenders. They are 5-4, hold a playoff spot, and have a +22 point differential thanks to their third-ranked scoring defense, but they also have a struggling rookie quarterback (79.6 passer rating) and are 0-3 against teams with winning records, including an embarrassing 31-point loss to Baltimore last week.
If the Broncos can win in Kansas City against the undefeated Chiefs, it would push them over the fence into true playoff contender status, making them a serious threat to stay ahead of New York the rest of the way. But if the Broncos suffer another embarrassing loss like last week, it would look increasingly probable that the Broncos are true pretenders and will likely drop enough games for the Jets to have a chance of surpassing them if they stay hot.
Titans (2-6, +7.5) over @Chargers (5-3) – 4:05 p.m.
The sixth-seeded Chargers sit at 5-3. They have the league’s No. 1 scoring defense and the fourth-best point differential in the AFC (+58). Five of their final nine games are against teams with losing records, and on top of that, they also have a home game against the Broncos.
Simply put, this team has an incredibly positive outlook. It is difficult to see them losing enough games for the Jets to catch up with them.
But the NFL is a crazy league where unexpected things should be completely expected. Why can’t the Chargers suffer a massive collapse to widen the door for the Jets?
A Chargers implosion would be tremendous for the Jets because New York has an opportunity to defeat Los Angeles in a tiebreaker, which cannot happen against Denver. The Jets and Chargers do not play each other this year, meaning the tiebreaker would first be determined by conference record.
The Chargers currently have a big advantage in that department, owning a 3-2 record in the AFC versus the Jets’ 3-4. However, the Chargers have seven conference games remaining, so if they go on a skid, it will include some conference losses.
One of those conference games falls today against the Titans. While every Chargers loss is a big one for the Jets, the AFC matchups are particularly important. If Tennessee can pull off the upset at SoFi Stadium, it would open new pathways for the Jets. Los Angeles looks to be well on its way to 10+ wins right now, but one home loss against a 2-win AFC team can change the whole trajectory.
