On Wednesday, we presented the case for why the New York Jets would not benefit from tanking for a high draft pick in the 2026 season.
That sparked a debate on X among Jets fans, revealing that the fanbase is almost split down the middle on the issue.
I put out a poll asking fans to vote whether they would prefer to see the team finish 8-9 with the 16th overall pick or finish 3-14 with the first overall pick, with no context as to how the season played out (how specific players performed, the quality of the team’s wins, whether anyone was fired, etc.).
With 1,104 votes, 55.4% of fans preferred an 8-9 finish with the 16th draft slot, while 44.6% preferred a 3-14 result with the top draft slot.
Let’s break down the case for and against each.
The case for 8-9 and 16th pick
As much as NFL fans despise mediocrity, it has to be kept in mind where the New York Jets organization is coming from.
Not only would this be a five-win improvement off the 2025 season, but it would be the Jets’ best record since 2015. Yes, you read that correctly; even an 8-9 record would be the Jets’ best finish in 11 years.
Breaking through the 7-win ceiling would be meaningful for an organization that has become accustomed to losing. Sure, it’s still a losing record, but it would put the Jets on the doorstep of playoff contention, and even the doorstep is a place they haven’t been in over a decade.
Context matters, of course. There are different ways to go 8-9, and not all of them would carry the same meaning for the Jets’ future.
Most likely, though, if the Jets go 8-9, it means many of the team’s young core players performed well and learned how to contribute to winning in the NFL. New York will be entrusting plenty of young players with significant roles this season, including at least four rookies, so it seems probable that an 8-9 season would feature plenty of promising individual seasons from the team’s primary building blocks.
With a near-.500 season anchored by a young roster, the Jets would be on the precipice of a breakout season in 2027. For the first time in many years, the arrow would be pointing up.
The case against 8-9 and 16th pick
While the 8-9 mark would look great on the surface when stacked up against the Jets’ 3-14 record from a season prior, context is critical. Not every version of an 8-9 season would leave Jets fans feeling confident about the future.
The win-loss record is just one factor in evaluating a team’s play. You also have to look at their point differential and the quality of their wins and losses.
The Jets could go 8-9 with some impressive wins over playoff teams and some blowout wins over bad teams. Perhaps they even manage to record a positive point differential, making them look even better than their record.
Or, they could go 8-9 with narrow wins over bad teams and a plethora of blowout losses, finishing with a -70 point differential.
If the latter scenario occurs, it will be much tougher to feel good about an 8-9 record.
It is also important to consider which players have the most significant roles in facilitating that record. If the Jets go 8-9 mainly because of an outlier of a great season from Geno Smith, along with excellent defensive seasons from veteran players like Demario Davis, David Onyemata, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, it won’t inspire as much faith in the Jets’ long-term future as an 8-9 season anchored by David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr., and D’Angelo Ponds.
After going 8-9 to land the 16th overall pick, the Jets would probably have to trade up to land a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft. They have three other chances to land a high draft pick, as they own the Colts’ first-round pick and the better first-round pick between the Cowboys and the Packers, but it is unlikely that any of those picks lands in the top five.
Therefore, an 8-9 season would likely force the Jets to trade up for a quarterback if they wish to avoid a third straight season of quarterback purgatory. They would have more than enough ammunition to pull it off, but the pill would be much easier to swallow if they had the type of 8-9 season that inspires immense faith in their long-term core, rather than a fluky 8-9 season that does little to strengthen the foundation.
This is why some fans are against the idea of an 8-9 season. They aren’t confident that the benefits of going 8-9 would outweigh the cost of falling down the draft board and having to trade a massive package for a quarterback, who would likely be the second, third, or even fourth quarterback off the board, at that.
If you could guarantee that an 8-9 season would be anchored by incredible seasons from the team’s young players, featuring a boatload of quality wins, then I would wager that most Jets fans would sign up. But since you can’t guarantee that, I think it’s understandable that many fans are afraid of the team having a fluky 8-9 season that hurts the team’s future more than it helps.
The case for 3-14 and 1st pick
The Jets don’t have a franchise quarterback. Until they do, they probably aren’t going very far.
For that reason, many fans are willing to throw everything else away until the Jets get that franchise quarterback.
After all, the team has already missed the playoffs 15 years in a row. What’s another?
That’s the mindset of some fans, at least.
In the scenario I presented, the Jets would not only go 3-14, but they would be guaranteed the first overall pick. That’s a huge caveat. As we learned last season, going 3-14 does not guarantee the first overall pick, nor does it even guarantee an elite quarterback prospect. The Jets went 3-14 in particularly ugly fashion, and they landed the No. 2 pick in a one-quarterback draft.
So, if we’re guaranteeing that the Jets would land the first overall pick, a prize they have not had since selecting Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, it greatly increases the appeal of going 3-14. This would likely guarantee that the Jets could select a quarterback worthy of the first overall pick.
The 2027 quarterback class is considered strong, so it is hard to imagine that, even in a world where the class disappoints in the 2027 college football season, there will not be a quarterback worthy of the first overall pick.
Thus, the Jets would have their highest-drafted quarterback in franchise history, and they could still use their other two first-round picks on supporting pieces, to boot.
The case against 3-14 and 1st pick
While it would be incredibly exciting to land a quarterback with the first overall pick, it is a stretch to expect that the player you land with that pick will be so unstoppable that he can lift an entire franchise on his shoulders regardless of the situation around him.
Trevor Lawrence couldn’t do it. Bryce Young couldn’t do it. Kyler Murray couldn’t do it. Baker Mayfield couldn’t do it. Jared Goff couldn’t do it. Cam Ward and Caleb Williams don’t seem like they will be in that class, either.
Even quarterbacks drafted first overall need a strong supporting cast to be successful.
And if the Jets earn the first overall pick… they won’t have a strong supporting cast.
Going 3-14 would probably mean that many of the Jets’ core players had poor seasons. Sure, it would be fantastic if they could craft a dream scenario where all of their core players thrive, but the team goes 3-14 because Geno Smith throws 25 interceptions and the special teams blow a bunch of games. That isn’t realistic, though.
In all likelihood, a 3-14 Jets team experienced underwhelming production from most of the players expected to make up the core of the roster moving forward. A large portion of this team’s snaps will go to young players who were either drafted, signed, or extended in the past two years.
Yes, the Jets would have two more first-round picks at their disposal to continue building their supporting cast around the quarterback. However, we have to consider who would be using these picks.
At this point, general manager Darren Mougey would have a 6-28 record. While his 2025 season could be chalked up as a mulligan, there would be no excuse for the 2026 campaign. Nearly the entire roster is now comprised of players he either drafted or signed. If the team doesn’t improve this year, it would be an extremely bad sign regarding Mougey’s team-building skills in the GM chair.
And yet, he would be the man tasked with not only selecting the right quarterback, but building the right supporting cast around him.
Perhaps, though, the Jets would clean house if they have a second straight 3-14 season. That might make the tanking scenario more appealing, as they could start from ground zero with a head coach and a general manager who do not have a combined 6-28 record. They would hand the new pairing a prized rookie quarterback, two extra first-round picks, and a surplus of cap space to immediately put a new stamp on the team.
If the firings of Aaron Glenn and Mougey could be guaranteed, along with the first overall pick, that may increase the appeal of going 3-14. However, it is unclear whether team owner Woody Johnson would pull the trigger.
Johnson expressed patience with the duo after a brutal 2025 season, and it is worth noting that the Jets committed to a long-term build of at least three seasons when they traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams for picks that extended out to 2027. Johnson may be willing to give Glenn and Mougey—or, at least Mougey—a minimum of three seasons to see this process through, especially since they will have gone through their first two seasons without a legitimate quarterback.
The uncertainty of Glenn and Mougey’s futures makes it difficult to view a tanking scenario as appealing for the franchise. If one or both return after a second straight 3-14 season, it would be difficult to have faith in the future of the team, even with a franchise quarterback aboard.
The outlook would be different if we could guarantee a clean house, but that is not part of the scenario presented in this hypothetical. You are merely taking the 3-14 record, the first overall pick, and the dice roll as to who the head coach and GM will be in 2027.
That dice roll makes this scenario too risky.
The verdict
Fans are split on the matter, but the 8-9 crowd ultimately won out by a slight margin. It appears that the majority of the fanbase believes a competitive season would be worthwhile for the Jets, even if it falls short of a playoff appearance.
Where do you stand, Jets fans?
