As the New York Jets play out the string of the 2024 season, the fanbase’s attention will be mostly focused on key long-term pieces such as Olu Fashanu and Will McDonald (who both dominated in the team’s latest game).
However, one of the most important players for New York to evaluate is a 31-year-old wide receiver with six Pro Bowls to his name: Davante Adams.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
In somewhat of a panic move, the Jets traded a conditional 2025 third-round pick for Adams ahead of their Week 7 contest despite already being in a 2-4 hole. While the primary motive of the trade was to spark New York in the short term, Adams could still be a part of the Jets’ future, too.
Adams is in the third year of a five-year contract he signed with the Las Vegas Raiders beginning in the 2022 season. He is still under contract with the Jets for two more seasons.
However, Adams’ cap hits for the next two seasons are untenable: $38.34 million in both 2025 and 2026. Fortunately, the Jets can easily escape the deal. They can release him in 2025 to save $29.98 million in space while eating $8.36 million in dead money. They can also release him with a post-June 1 designation to save $36.25 million in space, spreading the dead money between $2.09 million in 2025 and $6.27 million in 2026.
Releasing Adams could be an easy choice, especially if Aaron Rodgers exits and Adams does not want to play in New York without Rodgers. But the Jets dealt a third-round pick for Adams. It would be a significant blow if they lost a third-round pick for 11 games of Adams in a lost season. For that reason, the Jets could look to salvage the trade by attempting to renegotiate with Adams and bring him back at a fair cost.
In addition, the Jets’ outlook at wide receiver is bleak. Beyond Adams and Garrett Wilson, the Jets do not have any other pieces who are remotely trustworthy going into 2025. That could change if third-round rookie Malachi Corley emerges over the final five games of 2024, but for the time being, New York’s future depth chart at wide receiver is Garrett Wilson and a whole lot of nothing.
Because of this, the Jets could decide it is more worthwhile to bring Adams back in 2025 than to create another hole in an already porous unit. They’ll be on the hook to pay him at least $8.36 million, anyway, so they could just try to get him back at a fair cap number instead of losing $8.36 million and a third-round pick for nothing.
All of this comes down to one question, though: Is Adams still good?
Adams has now played six games with the Jets since coming over from Las Vegas. It is a relatively small sample size, but it is enough for us to start drawing some conclusions about what type of player he is at this stage of his career.
Let’s break down Adams’ performance over his first six games with the Jets.
Raw box-score production
Here are Adams’ numbers in the box score.
- 6 games
- 58 targets (9.7 per game)
- 31 receptions (5.2 per game)
- 17 first downs (2.8 per game)
- 344 yards (57.3 per game)
- 2 touchdowns (0.33 per game)
These are wildly underwhelming numbers by Adams’ standards. The 57.3 yards per game, 2.8 first downs per game, and 0.33 touchdowns per game are his worst since 2015, and the 5.2 receptions per game are his worst since 2016.
Despite falling well short of Adams’ standards, those seem like solid numbers for a WR2, which is all the Jets would need Adams to be in 2025. However, his stat line is not as respectable as it seems when you account for one vital factor: his target volume is still very high.
Adams is seeing 9.7 targets per game in New York, less than one fewer target per game than his 10.6 over the previous six seasons (2018-23). In fact, Adams has the eighth-most targets in the NFL since he became a Jet (58), yet he is 35th in receiving yards, 35th in receiving touchdowns, 32nd in receiving first downs, and 31st in receptions over that span.
This points to Adams’ inefficiency on a per-target basis. He is averaging 5.9 yards per target, his worst mark since 2015 and far behind his 8.2 mark from 2018-23.
Here is where Adams’ efficiency metrics rank among 51 wide receivers with 30+ targets since Week 7:
- 5.9 yards per target (47th)
- 53.4% catch rate (45th)
- 11.1 yards per reception (39th)
- 29.3% first down rate (45th)
To summarize, the Jets have been force-feeding targets to Adams at a WR1-type volume, but he is delivering some of the least efficient results in the league on a per-play basis.
This is the box score, though. These numbers are largely dependent on other factors – QB play, OL play, coaching, and many others. To get a more accurate idea of how Adams is truly playing, we need to look at metrics that focus on the receiver’s individual performance.
Advanced metrics
A good place to start is ESPN Analytics’ Receiver Score system. Using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats, it rates every receiver on a scale of 0-100 in three categories: separation, catching, and YAC. This culminates in an overall score.
Here are Adams’ scores (ranks out of 92 wide receivers):
- 67 separation (21st)
- 16 catching (89th)
- 39 YAC (59th)
- 39 overall (79th)
ESPN’s system believes Adams has been very solid at creating separation but horrible at the catch point, while also being below-average at YAC. These ratings combine to place him in the bottom-15 overall out of 92 qualified wide receivers.
I view ESPN’s Receiver Scores with skepticism. For instance, Garrett Wilson ranks 76th with a 38 overall score, lower than Adams and players like Elijah Moore, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Wan’Dale Robinson. Justin Jefferson is 45th with a 48 score, tied with Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
It’s a wonky system, to say the least. Nothing it spits out should be viewed as gospel. However, I do think ESPN’s specific skill breakdown of Adams’ game paints an accurate picture of the strengths and weaknesses he has brought to New York.
Adams’ signature route-running skill has been on display numerous times in New York. While Rodgers certainly force-feeds his BFF at times, Adams has definitely earned many of his targets through his still-excellent route running. On the negative side, Adams has botched an unusually high rate of his catchable targets.
According to Pro Football Focus, Adams has five drops in New York, giving him a 13.9% drop rate that ranks fifth-worst among wide receivers with 30+ targets since Week 7. Furthermore, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Adams has a Catch Rate Over Expected of -11.5%, the second-worst mark. So, his abysmal catching score at ESPN is fair.
The following two plays sum up these numbers.
Adams (slot right) cooks his man off the line with his patented slow-played release, and Rodgers drops it right in (perhaps a little out in front but still easily catchable), but Adams cannot haul in the pass. It is difficult to see from this angle, but the replay showed that the ball went through Adams’ hands and hit the ground. This sums up the ESPN numbers: great separation, poor catching.
Adams (wide right) wins deep against Derek Stingley and Rodgers drops it in perfectly, but Adams allows Stingley to knock it out. Once again: great separation, bad execution at the catch point.
Negatively affected by Aaron Rodgers?
While Adams has let Rodgers down a few times, Rodgers has arguably hung Adams out to dry more often than the other way around.
Rodgers has not thrown the ball well this year. According to Pro Football Reference, he has the league’s 10th-highest bad throw rate (16.2%) and ranks just 27th out of 35 qualifiers in on-target rate (68.6%).
Adams has been victimized quite a few times by Rodgers’ inaccuracy. There have also been occasions where Rodgers forced balls to Adams that probably shouldn’t have been attempted, hurting his stats undeservedly. Most mysterious of all, there have been plays where Rodgers was not on the same page with the star wideout he’s thrown to for nine seasons.
Here is a compilation of incompletions in Adams’ direction that aren’t his fault.
All of these mistakes on Rodgers’ end are undoubtedly laying a dent in Adams’ numbers – both the raw box score stats and even the advanced metrics that are designed to isolate the receiver from his surroundings. While Adams has dropped some great passes he should catch, Rodgers is certainly playing a large role in Adams’ numbers looking as poor as they do.
The good
As shown by his 21st-ranked separation score out of 92 qualifiers, Adams remains a high-quality route runner.
In particular, Adams has been winning vertically at an incredibly impressive rate. As seen in some of the clips above, those wins have often not been converted upon, whether it was due to a drop by Adams or a misfire by Rodgers. A couple of them have been hit, though, showing the field-stretching potential he still brings to the table.
Adams is not a burner and never was. He is just so crisp, deceptive, and efficient with his movements off the line of scrimmage, buying him the space he needs to clear his man and stack him over the top.
While those were the only two catches of 20+ air yards that Adams has made with the Jets, he has created opportunities for many more than that. We saw earlier that he dropped two deep shots right in his hands and also had Rodgers miss him on a few downfield throws. He is getting open on vertical routes at a strong rate.
The mental side of Adams’ route-running remains a major positive in his game. He has a great feel for settling into the spot of the defense and making himself available for the QB. The cerebral veteran also excels at diagnosing blitzes and quickly presenting himself as an option on the hot route.
The ability to make these types of catches will not disappear with age.
Adams also still has a sharp slant route in his repertoire. While his hands have been shaky down the field, he’s made tough grabs over the middle, and he’s even broken some tackles for tough yards after the catch.
How does Adams project in 2025?
As we project Adams’ outlook going into 2025, it is important to keep in mind the standards he will be held to if he remains in New York. The Jets would not expect Adams to be the version of himself that earned three consecutive first-team All-Pro nods from 2020-22. They would likely bring him back at a price that pegs him as their WR2 behind Garrett Wilson, who would establish himself as the clear top dog in the room without Rodgers over-favoring Adams.
In that case, can Adams be trusted as a quality WR2 for the Jets in 2025?
I think he can.
While his efficiency in 2024 has been poor, I believe Adams is miscast in his role at this stage of his career. Adams will be 32 in a few weeks. The Jets have a talented 24-year-old in Wilson who is capable of handling WR1 duties. There is no reason Adams should be out-targeting Wilson; since Adams came to the Jets, he has 58 targets to Wilson’s 51. That is asking too much of Adams.
If the Jets reduced Adams to about 5-6 targets per game instead of his current average of nearly 10 per game, I think he would be far more efficient. Adams no longer has the dominant playmaking ability to deliver worthwhile results on 10 targets per game. But if you cut him down to a complementary role, focusing on maximizing his route running in spurts (only going his way when he has a favorable matchup instead of force-feeding him difficult targets), I think Adams can still be a valuable weapon.
I also think that the breakdown of Adams’ performance in 2024 thus far paints a positive outlook for his potential of bouncing back in 2025 (or perhaps as soon as the next five games). He is mainly struggling due to drops. This is not only an outlier for Adams, but it is not a skill that tends to diminish with age. At the moment, it seems like an aberration. It would be more concerning if he were struggling to get open.
Adams’ drop rate with the Jets is 13.9%. That is more than double his career average of 6.6% (which, for perspective, is identical to the 2024 league average for WRs). Over his previous seven seasons (2017-23), Adams’ drop rate never went higher than 8.3% in a season.
It is slightly concerning that 2024 marks Adams’ fourth consecutive year with an increase to his drop rate. Starting from an unbelievable 1.5% in 2020, he jumped to 2.9% in 2021, 5.7% in 2022, 8% in 2023, and 12.5% this year (including his games in Vegas).
This is certainly a red flag that can be referred back to if Adams continues struggling in 2025. However, it feels like a safe bet that Adams’ drop rate will not remain as high as 12.5%. He is too talented of a pass catcher for such a large spike in drops to be legitimate (at least, that is my hunch). While his days of dropping less than 2% of his passes are probably behind him, it seems feasible that he will return to the neighborhood of the 8% rate he had in 2023. That normalization could even begin occurring before the end of this season.
Adams’ separation skills are intact. He may no longer be the best route runner in football, but he is still very good. Adams has created opportunities at a high rate with the Jets. Unfortunately, those opportunities have not been capitalized upon nearly enough, both due to Adams’ poor catching and Rodgers’ inaccuracy. Nonetheless, opportunity creation is a valuable skill.
Speaking of Rodgers, I also think he contributes to making Adams look worse than he has really been. The eye test does not show a receiver who is nearly as bad as his metrics say he is, and that disparity can be pinned on Rodgers’ poor play.
Looking to the future, Adams’ separation seems to have a good chance of being sustained because he does not rely heavily on his athleticism to pull it off. Adams has always relied on pure technique and skill to win on his routes, and he still has those traits. On top of that, he creates separation with his brain by finding soft spots in the zone and making himself available against blitzes. There is no reason to think these abilities will go away.
I certainly believe Adams can be a solid WR2 in 2025. These next five games will provide the Jets with more valuable information regarding his chances of meeting that benchmark. The story could be a lot different when we check back in January. In particular, I am curious to see if his catching efficiency begins to normalize before the end of the season.
In addition to the on-field factors, it should be mentioned that Adams seems like a fantastic player to have in the locker room as the Jets attempt to rebuild their culture under a new regime. Adams came to New York mid-season and immediately took it upon himself to try and shift the team’s culture. The Jets need guys like this in the building to clear the everlasting stink that shrouds the organization.
On top of that, as a longtime veteran receiver who succeeded on the basis of fundamentals and technique rather than raw ability, he can be a valuable mentor for the young receivers on the team.
It all comes down to whether Adams wants to return and whether the new regime wants him back. Based on the information we currently have, though, I believe it would be worthwhile for the Jets to explore renegotiating with Adams to bring him back on a cap hit in the mid-teens.
Five games remain for that stance to change. Adams could either strengthen his case to return, stay in the same gray area, or make it clear that New York should move on.
