When the New York Jets’ new regime arrives in Florham Park, one of their first tasks will be to decide whether they want to move forward with Aaron Rodgers in 2025. As they mull that decision, they must rely on cold-hard facts and avoid being swayed by the allure of Rodgers’ star power.
With five games left in the 2024 season, the facts paint a daunting picture of Rodgers’ status as a player at 41 years old. If his numbers do not change over the next five games, it would be nearly impossible for the Jets’ new regime to sell the fanbase on bringing Rodgers back.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
One of the most frustrating aspects of Rodgers’ performance in 2024 has been his accuracy. Rodgers is known as one of the most talented passers in NFL history. While it was expected that his mobility would look diminished in his 20th NFL season, many people expected that his arm talent would be unaffected by his age.
That has not seemed to be the case. Jets fans have witnessed Rodgers miss some crucial open throws this season, including a killer whiff to Garrett Wilson in the team’s most recent loss.
But every quarterback misses layups sometimes. Has Rodgers botched freebies any more often than the average quarterback?
The numbers say yes, to a startling degree.
Aaron Rodgers’ downfield accuracy on open throws
According to one metric, Rodgers is among the NFL’s least accurate quarterbacks on open downfield throws.
By using multiple filters at NFL Next Gen Stats, we can isolate specific situations that help us analyze particular aspects of a quarterback’s game. We are going to use a few different filters here to answer the question at hand.
We want to find out whether Rodgers’ propensity for missing open downfield throws is abnormal. To do that, we will isolate his performance on pass attempts that met each of the following criteria:
- Traveled 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage
- Targeted a receiver with 3+ yards of separation
We’ll call these “open downfield throws.”
On open downfield throws, Rodgers has an adjusted completion percentage (which counts drops as completions) of 58.6%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That ranks fourth-worst among 33 qualified quarterbacks. It also makes him just one of four qualified quarterbacks in the NFL with a sub-60% mark, joining… Deshaun Watson (50.0%), Caleb Williams (54.3%), and Anthony Richardson (55.6%).
That is not exactly a who’s who of needle-threaders. Being mentioned alongside Deshaun Watson in 2024 is about as damning as it gets.
The league average is 73.7%, meaning Rodgers is about 15% less accurate on open downfield throws than your everyday NFL quarterback in 2024. That is an enormous discrepancy, suggesting Rodgers’ poor performance in this area is legitimate and not a fallacy caused by one or two memorable plays.
Here is the full leaderboard among the 33 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 15 open downfield throws.
(Completions + Drops) / Attempts on passes traveling 10+ yards downfield to player with 3+ yards of separation — via NFL Next Gen Stats
| Player | Comp | Att | Drops | ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 15 | 15 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Kyler Murray | 20 | 24 | 2 | 91.7% |
| Jalen Hurts | 22 | 25 | 0 | 88.0% |
| Jayden Daniels | 27 | 33 | 2 | 87.9% |
| Sam Darnold | 34 | 39 | 0 | 87.2% |
| Brock Purdy | 25 | 30 | 1 | 86.7% |
| Josh Allen | 18 | 25 | 3 | 84.0% |
| Justin Herbert | 29 | 37 | 2 | 83.8% |
| Derek Carr | 14 | 18 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Geno Smith | 23 | 29 | 1 | 82.8% |
| Will Levis | 17 | 22 | 1 | 81.8% |
| Baker Mayfield | 17 | 24 | 2 | 79.2% |
| C.J. Stroud | 33 | 45 | 2 | 77.8% |
| Joe Burrow | 30 | 40 | 1 | 77.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 24 | 31 | 0 | 77.4% |
| Lamar Jackson | 45 | 60 | 1 | 76.7% |
| Gardner Minshew | 12 | 17 | 1 | 76.5% |
| Daniel Jones | 15 | 24 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Joe Flacco | 18 | 24 | 0 | 75.0% |
| Matthew Stafford | 26 | 35 | 0 | 74.3% |
| Jameis Winston | 18 | 27 | 2 | 74.1% |
| Kirk Cousins | 27 | 38 | 1 | 73.7% |
| Jordan Love | 24 | 39 | 4 | 71.8% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21 | 31 | 1 | 71.0% |
| Bo Nix | 28 | 44 | 2 | 68.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 33 | 50 | 1 | 68.0% |
| Jared Goff | 22 | 34 | 1 | 67.6% |
| Bryce Young | 10 | 16 | 0 | 62.5% |
| Drake Maye | 11 | 18 | 0 | 61.1% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 16 | 29 | 1 | 58.6% |
| Anthony Richardson | 18 | 36 | 2 | 55.6% |
| Caleb Williams | 18 | 35 | 1 | 54.3% |
| Deshaun Watson | 9 | 20 | 1 | 50.0% |
Everyone misses an easy throw occasionally (except Dak Prescott, apparently), but too many easy misses have piled up for Rodgers throughout the season. Worse, some of them came at crucial junctures of the game.
This miss to Garrett Wilson would have put the Jets up 28-7 with a made extra point. Instead, Rodgers followed it with a pick-six on the very next play, putting the score at 21-13. The Jets would never score again, losing 26-21.
There was only 1:36 remaining in the fourth quarter when the ball was snapped on this play. If Rodgers hit this pass to a wide-open Wilson for six, the Jets would have tied the score at 23-23 with a chance to take the lead on the extra point. Instead, the drive (and game) ended in an interception.
That’s not one, but two Jets losses directly caused by Rodgers missing a wide open downfield throw.
Without peeling back the layers, it is easy to be fooled into thinking Rodgers has been a competent quarterback for the Jets this year. Most notably, his 19-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio will certainly persuade the casual onlooker. If you look any deeper than the box score, though, Rodgers’ immense decline becomes much clearer.
The advanced metrics and film tell the story that New York’s new regime must adhere to. Not only is Aaron Rodgers not Aaron Rodgers anymore, but he is a liability.
Unless Rodgers puts together a turnaround of epic proportions over the next five games, the Jets’ freshly hired regime should have an easy decision to start off their new era. If Rodgers wants to make it a tougher decision, he has to turn around metrics like this one before the season concludes – despite the fact he thinks it is “ridiculous” that he has to prove anything over the next five games.
