Analyzing an NFL player is a complex endeavor – more complex than ever before.
Edge rushers encapsulate this as much as any position. Once a position that was evaluated in the simplest of ways, the array of metrics used to evaluate them has grown increasingly vast over time.
For many years, it was only about sacks. Then, there were QB hits. After that, the nerds came along and introduced pressures. Even bigger nerds one-upped pressures with “pass-rush win rate.” It gets even nerdier (care to sit around the fire and talk about “true pass set pass-rush win rate”?), but I won’t bore you.
In his second season with the New York Jets, Will McDonald has successfully won over the traditionalists who still prefer to evaluate edge rushers based on sacks. The former 15th overall pick has racked up 10 sacks, placing him 11th in the NFL this season. It is the most by a second-year Jet since John Abraham in 2001.
While the sack scouts will look back fondly on McDonald’s 2024 season thanks to that visually appealing double-digit number, they also might be growing a little bit frustrated with him at this point in time. McDonald started off hot, picking up eight sacks over his first seven games. Since then, however, he has just two sacks over his past nine games, including eight sack-less games.
Clearly, McDonald has gone ice-cold, and his strong 2024 season was really just a strong first half.
This is where the flaws of sack-based analysis come in. While McDonald’s sack production has dwindled, his overall impact remains substantial if you look deeper.
McDonald is on a four-game sack-less streak. However, it’s over this streak that McDonald has begun to unveil a new talent that sack scouts would miss: his ability to generate holding penalties.
Over the last three games, McDonald has drawn four holding penalties (his first four of the year). These may not go down in the record books as sacks, but their impact is similar considering they result in a loss of 10 yards (just without the loss of down). Oftentimes, the holding penalty occurs to prevent an imminent sack.
If each of those four holds were sacks, the narrative around McDonald would be a lot different. Instead of having zero sacks in eight of his past nine games, he’d be tied with Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt for the league lead with 14 sacks. Unfortunately, the reality is that these plays go unaccounted for by the history books, never to be remembered, even though their impact is basically the same as a sack.
Beyond just the four holding penalties, McDonald has been making an impact beyond the sacks all season long. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, McDonald is tied for 11th in the league with 61 total pressures. With his ranking in total pressures being identical to his ranking in sacks, it proves that McDonald’s sack total is not a mirage. He affects the quarterback consistently, not just when he takes him down.
When evaluating an NFL pass rusher, always be sure to look beyond the sacks. Whether it’s hitting the quarterback, pressuring him, or even drawing a hold, there are many ways a pass rusher can affect the game without earning a sack.
