The New York Jets are 3-10, tying them for the third-worst record in the NFL. Only the Raiders and Giants (both 2-11) have a worse record.
Despite their futility in the win-loss column, this Jets team is rarely blown off the football field. New York has only taken three losses by multiple scores (9+ points), which is tied for the 12th-most in the league. So, even though just two teams have a worse record than the Jets, 11 teams have had more games where they were thoroughly outplayed.
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With a measly three multi-score losses in 13 games, the only path to 3-10 is to perform horrendously in close games, and that is precisely what the Jets have done. They are 2-7 in one-score games (8 points or less), tying them for the most one-score losses and the third-worst win percentage in one-score games.
When a team struggles to win close games, it can often be traced to the quarterback position. The Jets are no exception. Aaron Rodgers has performed abysmally in the clutch, and it is perhaps the main reason why the Jets have only won 22% of their one-score games.
Here are Rodgers’ 2024 statistics when tied or trailing by one score with under five minutes remaining in regulation (we will define this situation as “clutch” for the purpose of this article):
- 26 for 44 passing (59.1%)
- 248 yards (5.6 yards per attempt)
- 6 sacks for -47 yards
- 0 touchdowns
- 2 interceptions
- 0 rush attempts
- 55.9 passer rating
- 4.0 net yards per play (201 yards on 50 plays)
- 12 passing first downs
- 24% first down rate
In multiple ways, those are some of the worst clutch numbers in the NFL.
For starters, Rodgers’ 55.9 passer rating in the clutch ranks 24th among the 33 quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts in that situation. It gets worse, though.
Rodgers is generating only 4.0 net yards per play (combined pass+rush yards with sack yards deducted). This ranks 29th out of 33 qualifiers, sandwiching him between Drake Maye and Will Levis.
Perhaps worst of all, Rodgers is putrid at moving the chains in these situations. He has generated a first down (either passing or rushing) on just 24% of his clutch plays, which also ranks 29th. This time, he sits between Levis and Daniel Jones.
The most problematic aspect of Rodgers’ clutch performance is how heavily the Jets have relied on him in these situations. All of this inefficiency has occurred over a relatively massive sample of plays.
Rodgers has run 50 clutch plays (44 pass attempts + 6 sacks), the second-most among quarterbacks behind only Lamar Jackson (53). This means that Rodgers’ clutch performance is extremely important in determining the Jets’ record; the outcomes of numerous games were placed in his hands. As a result, with brutal clutch efficiency on a high volume of plays, it is no surprise that the Jets have lost a plethora of close games.
Clutch performance at the quarterback position tends to correlate strongly with one-score win percentage. For instance, take a look at Jackson, the only quarterback who has been called upon to handle more clutch plays than Rodgers.
Jackson has been phenomenal in the clutch, ranking sixth in passer rating (99.1), fourth in net yards per play (7.7), and sixth in first down rate (39.6%). Because of this, Jackson has managed to lead the Ravens to a 5-5 record in one-score games, which is an incredible feat considering how atrocious Baltimore’s defense is in the fourth quarter. They allow opponents to score on a league-worst 55.6% of fourth-quarter drives, more than 9% higher than any other team.
Interestingly, three spots below Baltimore’s defense on that list is the Jets, who rank fourth-worst by allowing an opponent score on 45.2% of fourth-quarter drives. Without Jackson’s elite play in the clutch, the Ravens would likely have a close-game record similar to (or worse than) the Jets’.
Yes, Rodgers is not the only person at fault for the Jets’ close-game record, as the defense has often choked, too. But Rodgers rarely bails them out. Jackson proves that a clutch quarterback can pull even the worst fourth-quarter defense in the NFL to a respectable record in close games. But in Rodgers’ case, he goes down with the ship, creating the perfect recipe for a 2-7 one-score record.
The best clutch quarterbacks tend to have strong records in close games. In fact, the top five quarterbacks in clutch passer rating have a combined record of 23-10 in one-score games this season:
- Russell Wilson (118.8) – 4-1 in one-score games
- Jayden Daniels (117.6) – 4-4
- Sam Darnold (117.5) – 7-1
- Geno Smith (107.8) – 4-1
- Jordan Love (104.2) – 4-3
The majority of NFL games come down to who makes that one tide-tilting play late in the fourth quarter. The Jets have counted on Aaron Rodgers to make that play more often than any other quarterback in the league besides Lamar Jackson, and he has come up small in most of those situations. Thus, the Jets are 2-7 in one-score games, and 3-10 overall.
As basic as it may seem, sometimes the formula to a team’s record is as simple as one surface-level question that will keep “First Take” in business until the end of time: Is your quarterback clutch? If the answer is yes, you will probably win plenty of games. Ask the Chiefs. On a four-quarter basis, Patrick Mahomes is not remotely close to the quarterback he once was. In fact, his overall box-score stats in 2024 look extremely similar to 41-year-old Rodgers’:
- Mahomes: 20 TD, 11 INT, 6.9 Y/A, 92.0 passer rating
- Rodgers: 20 TD, 9 INT, 6.5 Y/A, 88.9 passer rating
But in the clutch, it’s night-and-day:
- Mahomes: 89.2 passer rating (10th), 5.8 net yards per play (12th), 35% first down rate (9th)
- Rodgers: 55.9 passer rating (24th), 4.0 net yards per play (29th), 24% first down rate (29th)
The result: Mahomes is 10-0 in one-score games, Rodgers is 2-7.
In total, Mahomes has thrown 464 passes this season, while Rodgers has thrown 458. Even with similar metrics across their 450+ passes over the entirety of the season, it’s their performance in those few dozen end-game moments that serves as the difference between Mahomes preparing for another first-round bye and Rodgers already scheduling his next exotic vacation.
