The debate surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ future with the New York Jets rages on. Some fans and media members believe it is obvious he must go, while some Jets fans continue to cling to hope, urging team owner Woody Johnson to retain the four-time MVP.
If you’re in the latter group, consider facing the facts: remove the name “Aaron Rodgers” from the equation, and you have one of the most inept starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season.
Using data from NFL Next Gen Stats, I created a scatter plot to visualize how 35 qualified quarterbacks in the 2024 season are performing in two crucial metrics: yards per attempt (Y/A) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE).
Yards per attempt is a good measure of a quarterback’s explosiveness and general efficiency at moving the ball. Completion percentage over expected is a contextualized metric for evaluating accuracy; it is better than traditional completion percentage since it accounts for the difficulty of a quarterback’s pass attempts.
By combining these two metrics in a scatter plot, we can paint a picture of each quarterback’s proficiency when it comes to blending explosiveness and accuracy. And the picture is not pretty for Aaron Rodgers.
Among 35 qualifiers (min. 200 dropbacks), Rodgers ranks 33rd in CPOE (-4.8%) and 30th in Y/A (6.5). These numbers sound bad enough when written out, but viewing them on a scatter plot helps truly depict how far behind the rest of the league Rodgers has been in 2024. For those in favor of the Jets bringing back Rodgers, this visualization should help bring understanding to how much of a lost cause he has become at 41 years old.
Rodgers is deeply entrenched in the quadrant of quarterbacks who are below average in both Y/A and CPOE, a group that includes only 10 of the 35 qualifiers. He is far away from the league-average barometers in either category, or even the likes of Will Levis, who is comfortably below average himself.
Furthermore, while Rodgers’ Y/A is slightly better than two other poor starters in Caleb Williams and Daniel Jones, they actually have a much larger advantage over Rodgers in CPOE than Rodgers does in Y/A. For instance, the gap between Rodgers’ CPOE and Williams’ (-2.1%) is 2.7 points, the same distance between 8th-ranked Geno Smith (2.6%) and 20th-ranked Bryce Young (-0.1%). Between Rodgers and Daniel Jones (-1.1%), the gap is 3.7 points, even larger than the distance between 20th-ranked Young and 5th-ranked Joe Burrow (3.4%).
Rodgers has an identical Y/A to rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but Nix’s CPOE (-3.4%) is 1.4 points better, which is the same distance between 16th-ranked Dak Prescott (1.2%) and 8th-ranked Geno Smith (2.6%).
Fervent supporters of Rodgers often seem to ignore the extent of his struggles this year. His respectable TD:INT ratio (20:8) portrays the idea that he remains a decent starting quarterback, but TD:INT ratios tell you very little about how well a quarterback is actually playing. It is only a tiny portion of the pie. When you analyze Rodgers based on his film or just about any advanced metric beyond touchdowns and interceptions, it is clear that we are looking at a washed-up 41-year-old quarterback who is nowhere close to the guy he once was.
Yes, the Jets have lost close games due to issues beyond Rodgers; their defense and field goal kicking have choked in crucial moments throughout the season. The 3-10 record does not fall entirely on him. With better support from the other two phases, the Jets could have flipped some of their many close losses, even with Rodgers playing at the same level.
But win-loss records shouldn’t be a factor here. When discussing whether the Jets should bring back Rodgers in 2025, the sole focus should be his performance, independent of his offensive teammates, his defense, or the field goal kicking. And when you focus the spotlight on Rodgers’ controllables, he stands out as one of the NFL’s least effective starting quarterbacks. If you remove his notoriety from the picture and look solely at his production, it is hard to tell him apart from the Will Levises of the world.
The Jets would need significant improvement from Rodgers in 2025 for him to be viewed as a viable bridge quarterback, and that is before getting into the nitty-gritty about his contract (including a $63M dead charge in 2026 that would be triggered by him returning in 2025) or the negative ramifications of his off-field impact. Even without accounting for those crucial factors, Rodgers’ efficiency simply isn’t at the level it needs to be for one of the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks (who isn’t a youngster being given time to undergo growing pains).
While veteran NFL quarterbacks are capable of incredible one-year turnarounds – look at where Russell Wilson stands in the scatter plot after the scrutiny he took in Denver – Rodgers is going to turn 42 next year. That is a whole lot different than 36, which is Wilson’s current age as well as Rodgers’ age on opening day in 2020, the year he shook off the noise about a down 2019 season to win his third MVP.
Defenders of Rodgers will wipe away the concerns about his age by claiming he has been limited by injuries this season, and that he will be fresher and healthier with another year off of his Achilles injury. But this ignores that 2024 is his third consecutive season that has been mired by injuries. Remember, most of his 2022 season was nagged by a thumb injury, which, at the time, was offered as an excuse for his already-dwindling production that season. Now, we’re doing the same song and dance once again.
At his age and with three consecutive injury-riddled seasons, it is unrealistic to expect Rodgers to ever be in mint condition for an entire year. And with that in mind, it is unrealistic to expect statistical improvement from him in his age-42 campaign. Regression is more likely. Considering where his numbers already stand, that is not a promising outlook, to say the least.
To the Rodgers backers out there, take another glance at the scatter plot and the vast sea of white space that separates him from his peers. This is not a player you want throwing passes for your favorite team in any capacity beyond the 2024 season.
