As a four-time MVP and the quarterback of a team who scored 32 points, Aaron Rodgers is bound to steal most of the headlines after the New York Jets’ skid-snapping victory in Jacksonville. And, to Rodgers’ credit, his on-field play finally warrants headlines.
Rodgers had one of his best games as a Jet in the victory.
However, Rodgers was actually a few spots down the list of the top contributors to New York’s offensive outburst.
Rodgers’ box-score stats against Jacksonville are impressive: 16-for-30, 289 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 9.6 yards per attempt, a 120.0 passer rating, and a season-high 45 rushing yards. When you dice it up, though, it is clear that a few other players and factors had a larger role in those numbers than Rodgers himself. Context is essential when analyzing any quarterback performance.
First of all, Rodgers and the Jets owe a lot to the ineptitude of the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have the NFL’s 32nd-ranked pass defense in terms of both DVOA and yards per game, and it showed on Sunday.
Many of the Jets’ big plays came on busted coverages when players were completely uncovered. In fact, Rodgers went 11-of-12 to receivers with at least three yards of separation from the nearest defender when the ball arrived (per NFL Next Gen Stats). On all other passes, he was just 5-of-18. It likely would have been a much uglier day for Rodgers if Jacksonville did not gift him multiple massive gains in crucial moments.
In fact, this was one of Rodgers’ least accurate games of the year on passes that were not wide open. His 27.8% completion rate on throws with less than three yards of separation was his second-worst of the season, beating only his rainy Week 4 game against the Broncos (27.3%).
Overall, due to his struggles throwing into tighter windows, Rodgers finished the game with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of -4.8%. This is identical to the season average he carried into the game, which ranked 33rd out of 35 qualified quarterbacks. It signals that, despite the quality results in the end, Rodgers still was just as inaccurate on the whole as he has been all season.
Looking at the Jets’ performance independent of Jacksonville’s woes, they did a phenomenal job of supporting Rodgers. It was one of the best displays of quarterback support that you will see in the NFL.
The Jets’ pass protection was utterly dominant. Rodgers was pressured on just 16.7% of his dropbacks, his second-lowest rate of the season. That number is impressive enough on its own, but it is doubly remarkable when accounting for the fact that Rodgers averaged a season-high 3.18 seconds to throw.
When you see the combination of a low pressure rate and a high time-to-throw, it is a testament to the offensive line’s excellence. It is easy to keep pressures to a minimum if the ball is coming out quickly, but if the quarterback is holding onto it for a long time and still not getting pressured, it means the offensive line is thriving.
In fact, the blend achieved by New York on Sunday is unparalleled. Rodgers’ 16.7% pressure rate is the lowest of the 2024 season among 109 quarterback games (min. 15 passes) with an average time-to-throw of 3.00+ seconds. The previous high belonged to Jalen Hurts in Week 2 (17.1%), who plays behind a notoriously elite Eagles front.
The Jets’ offensive line is the unit that deserves the most shine for this performance. Looking deeper into that unit, the star of the show is once again New York’s rookie left tackle, Olu Fashanu.
Fashanu was credited with allowing zero pressures on 36 pass-blocking snaps, marking his second shutout in his last three starts. He did it against top-tier competition, too. Two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen played all 30 of his pass-rush snaps of Fashanu’s side of the line, and Hines-Allen finished the game with zero pressures – his first game of the season with none.
Left guard John Simpson, right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, and right tackle Morgan Moses were also fantastic, each allowing only two pressures. Center Joe Tippmann struggled a bit, yielding four.
Credit is also due to Davante Adams for lifting Rodgers up in some situations. Adams and Rodgers have an innate rapport, no doubt, but there were certain moments where Adams simply made an incredible play. This catch, in particular, is all Adams.
Adams also finished with 24 yards after catch over expectation, tied for the most by a Jets wide receiver this season (with himself in Week 11 vs. Indianapolis), which means he added a good chunk of bonus YAC onto Rodgers’ stat line that Rodgers had nothing to do with.
Let’s be clear: Rodgers certainly had himself a nice game. Things may have been easy for him at times, but he continuously capitalized on the chances presented to him in pivotal moments. He looked as mobile as he has all year, and he also delivered a handful of money throws that reminded you of vintage Aaron Rodgers. Plus, while a lot went his way, it is also worth noting that Rodgers was victimized by some bad drops (particularly from Allen Lazard) and a quiet run game (59 yards on 16 carries from the RBs).
However, it is important to remember that football is a team game. Not every explosive passing day should be fully attributed to the quarterback. In some cases, he deserves minimal credit, and in others, he deserves all of it.
In this case, we have a game against the league’s worst pass defense in which numerous wide-open throws were yielded, while the Jets’ offensive line delivered perhaps the best pass-blocking performance of the 2024 NFL season. Adams also helped prop Rodgers up with great catches and chunks of bonus YAC. Considering all of these factors, praise for Rodgers should be tempered.
Having that said, we can temper our praise for Rodgers while still praising him. It is absurd to suggest he deserves no credit for the game or performed poorly. The smart approach is to find a middle ground. He did a tremendous job of capitalizing on favorable circumstances. It was a solid quarterbacking performance that New York probably would not have gotten from some of Rodgers’ predecessors even in a similarly cushy situation.
It warrants credit. But does it warrant glowing admiration that significantly changes Rodgers’ outlook going into 2025? That is a different conversation.
While Rodgers played well in this particular game, I would not say that his success came in ways that suggest he is progressing in a sustainable fashion entering his age-42 season. The improved output of the Jets’ passing game mainly had to do with the opponent’s ineptitude and the offensive line’s all-world performance. In areas where Rodgers has shown signs of decline, his performance did not truly change all that much.
Rodgers’ overall accuracy versus expectation remained precisely as poor as it was over the first 13 games. Take out the wide open throws and it was another erratic day throwing the ball.
While it was nice to see Rodgers scramble a few times, this was likely more due to circumstances than Rodgers actually being more agile. Jacksonville runs man coverage 39.2% of the time in 2024, fourth-highest in the NFL. Man-heavy teams yield scrambling lanes more often. It is no coincidence that in the only other two games of the season where Rodgers had 15+ rushing yards, he also faced a team that ranks top-five in man-coverage rate: 18 yards in Week 3 vs. the Patriots (43.6%, 2nd) and 26 yards in Week 4 vs. the Broncos (38.2%, 5th).
Also keep in mind that Jacksonville allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season (27.4). Even Joe Flacco (22 yards) and Jared Goff (21 yards) ran wild on this defense. Again, give Rodgers credit for what he did! But do his 45 rushing yards against the Jaguars indicate he has suddenly discovered the fountain of youth and will look this spry on a weekly basis going forward? It is more likely he just happened to have a few giant scrambling lanes open up against a bad, man-heavy defense.
The quality of Rodgers’ performance against Jacksonville cannot be questioned. What can be questioned is whether it should be viewed as a performance that has significant long-term implications on his odds of being a viable starting option for the Jets in 2025 (when considering not only his play but his contract and other off-field factors). In that regard, consider me unmoved.
Looking toward the future, the main takeaway from this game should be the otherworldly performance from the offensive line, particularly Fashanu. After years of poor pass protection, this unit has blossomed into one of the league’s better units and is set up for sustained success. Improvements to the scheme and offensive line coach will be needed to fulfill their potential in the run game, where they remain erratic, but as for pass-blocking, things are looking great.
After the offensive line, the second-most important takeaway is Adams’ performance. With his play over the last two games, it is beginning to look like a no-brainer for the Jets’ new regime to explore bringing him back on a reworked contract in 2025. Whether Adams is interested is another story, but the Jets have no reason not to be.
Through the first six games of his Jets tenure, Adams was separating at a high level, but he was producing highly inefficient results due to a bad case of the dropsies. It seemed like he was just a few drops away from remaining an elite player, and he’s proven just that. Over the last two games, he has curbed concerns about his hands, and with his elite separation still intact, he has returned to producing elite results. He looks like a player who is likely to continue thriving in 2025.
Adams and the Jets’ offensive line are proving themselves worthy of being core building blocks for the team in 2025. Rodgers? It remains up in the air. Some are ready to buy back in after his recent outings. While I respect that opinion and see the logic in it, I cannot bring myself to agree due to the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
But none of our opinions matter. It will be up to Woody Johnson and the Jets’ new regime. With three games left, I am curious to see how Rodgers’ resume continues to shape itself. In the box score, things have improved recently, and he has now gotten himself back into the win column. However, underlying metrics and context suggest that things have changed less than they appear on the surface.
Will great box-score stats and more wins be enough to sway Woody and the new regime? Or are they looking deeper? In that case, can Rodgers forge legitimate improvements to aspects of his game that are unaffected by his surroundings? Is this all a moot discussion because Woody’s mind is already made up?
Everyone has a different take on Rodgers right now, but everyone should be able to agree on one thing: New York’s offensive line had a pass-blocking performance of epic proportions in Jacksonville, and it should be viewed as one of the team’s primary bright spots entering 2025.
