Will he or won’t he?
Aaron Rodgers’ possible return to the New York Jets in 2025 is one of the primary subjects on many Jets fans’ minds. Reported to be “highly unlikely” a few weeks ago, it has now been renewed due to Rodgers’ box score improvement against Miami and Jacksonville.
As the debate rages on, it’s worth taking another look at what a potential Rodgers return would mean for the Jets’ salary cap.
If the Jets keep Rodgers
Rodgers has a $35 million option bonus in 2025 that the Jets can exercise or decline. Additionally, he would have a $2.5 million non-guaranteed base salary.
An option bonus works the same way as a signing bonus when it is exercised: it spreads out evenly over five years or the life of the contract, whichever is shorter. Rodgers has void years in his contract from 2026-29, meaning the $35 million would be spread out as $7 million from 2025-29.
Rodgers has previous signing and option bonuses spread out from 2025-28; the amount for 2025 is $14 million. Therefore, if the Jets pick up Rodgers’ option, his 2025 cap hit would be $2.5 million (base salary) + $14 million (previous prorated bonuses) + $7 million (this year’s option bonus) = $23.5 million.
However, the void years on Rodgers’ contract make things tricky. Void years are sort of like “dummy years” added on to the contract to be able to spread out the money, but once you get to a void year on a contract, all remaining bonuses are accelerated onto that year’s cap.
From 2026-29, Rodgers has $35 million in previous bonuses remaining, plus the $28 million remaining from his 2025 option bonus. That makes the Jets’ 2026 dead cap hit from Rodgers $63 million.
It is worth noting that given Rodgers’ current contract structure, there is no way to mitigate this dead cap or spread it out over multiple years.
Another option
Technically, the Jets and Rodgers could agree to a modified contract with a significantly lowered 2025 total salary. Right now, Rodgers will make $37.5 million in 2025 if the Jets keep him. Theoretically, if the Jets wanted to stay with Rodgers, it might be in both sides’ best interests to reduce his pay. Rodgers may have a difficult time finding a job elsewhere next year.
However, the question is how low he would be willing to go and how low would make it worthwhile for the Jets to keep him. The lowest salary for an expected starting quarterback not on a first contract is Geno Smith’s $25 million. That probably still wouldn’t be low enough for the Jets to keep Rodgers.
Let’s say the Jets and Rodgers agreed to lower his option bonus to $22.5 million (because his base salary is $2.5 million). That would spread $4.5 million evenly across the next five years (2025 + four void years). Because of the previous bonuses, that would make Rodgers’ 2025 cap hit $21 million, saving the Jets $2.5 million in 2025.
In 2026, his dead cap charge would then be $53 million (the prorated signing bonuses from 2026-29 plus the remaining option bonus from 2026-29). That’s a more reasonable number, especially considering what the charge would be if the Jets release Rodgers. (More below.)
If $25 million still isn’t enough for the Jets, perhaps Rodgers would be willing to go lower. There is a huge delta between Geno Smith and the next-closest quarterback contract — Gardner Minshew’s $12.5 million. Perhaps the Jets and Rodgers could find common ground in that area. That would further reduce the dead cap hit the Jets would need to absorb in 2026, as well as lowering his cap hit in 2025.
If the Jets let Rodgers go
Letting Rodgers go means declining his option bonus and releasing him. The Jets can do this in two ways: with a regular release or a post-June 1 release.
If they chose to release him outright, the remaining prorated signing bonus from 2025-28 would accelerate to the 2025 salary cap. That means Rodgers’ dead cap charge would be $49 million. Note that this actually loses $25.5 million on the 2025 cap compared to keeping Rodgers, which, as we said earlier, would cause a cap hit of $23.5 million.
The Jets could also choose to designate Rodgers as a post-June 1 cut. In that case, the 2025 bonus would become dead money in 2025, but the 2026-28 money would not hit the Jets’ cap until 2026. Therefore, the Jets’ dead cap would be $14 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. This would save the Jets $9.5 million in 2025 cap space.
There is no other way for the Jets to mitigate these cap hits, either, since they all come from previously paid bonuses. It’s just a matter of when they would decide to release him.
Evaluating the options
Understand that the “prorated signing bonus” part is money that was already paid to Rodgers. Therefore, it is a sunk cost; it will hit the Jets’ salary cap no matter what. The question is simply when. Do the Jets want to push some of it to 2026 or leave it all in 2025? That’s one layer of the evaluation.
The second layer is whether the Jets want to pay Rodgers more money for 2025. Does Woody Johnson want to pay him $37.5 million? If not, can the Jets and Rodgers come to an agreement that makes the hit more palatable for the Jets?
The proper choice here depends on many factors. First of all, would bringing back Rodgers deter some of the best general manager and head coaching candidates from wanting to come to New York? That is a distinct possibility.
Would the Jets once again be mortgaging their future to save their present by keeping Rodgers? That’s not generally the kind of approach that a new general manager wants to take. We’ve seen new GMs get rid of the team’s former starting quarterback many times before. How much more so would that apply to a 41-year-old whose numbers have declined, among many other deficiencies?
If Garrett Wilson does, indeed, ask for a trade, would keeping Rodgers even be worthwhile at that point? That would take away perhaps his biggest offensive weapon.
How would the Jets be able to supplement the roster in 2026 with the kind of dead cap charge Rodgers will incur? There is still a large difference between $49 million in dead cap (or possibly a $14 million/$35 million split over two years) and $63 million.
There are many, many other facets to consider in the coming weeks. The answers to these questions will likely be tied first and foremost to the Jets’ hires, although Woody Johnson could potentially put his foot down and force the issue one way or the other.
This article is simply laying out the options and the financial ramifications of each direction the Jets could choose.
