To the Brock Bowers lovers go the spoils.
At least, that’s what Brock Bowers lovers would have you believe. Clearly, had the New York Jets drafted Bowers over Olu Fashanu, they’d be in a better position for 2025. They say.
The reality is more complicated. Olu Fashanu has performed well since moving to his natural left tackle position, which gives the Jets significant hope and continuity on their offensive line. Bowers certainly looks like a superstar tight end, but it’s a pick-your-poison situation for the Jets, just as it was during the draft.
If both players live up to their draft billing, which one is more worthwhile? Many (if not most) would argue that tackle is a more important position than tight end.
Even so, with Fashanu manning the quarterback’s blindside, the Jets still have a big tight end problem. Tyler Conklin is in the final year of his deal. Jeremy Ruckert has been a disaster, and Kenny Yeboah is the only real depth behind him. (Sorry, Zack Kuntz truthers.)
The question becomes whether the Jets should re-sign Conklin. Has he played well enough to continue in New York?
Receiving
Many Jets X-Factor writers have often felt Conklin is underrated. We thought his receiving statistics were depressed by poor quarterback play. That could still be the case this season, as Aaron Rodgers’ improvement over Zach Wilson is far from prodigious.
Still, as Conklin finishes up his third season as the Jets’ starting tight end, it’s hard to argue with the numbers. Among 34 tight ends with at least 35 targets, here are Conklin’s numbers:
- 36 receptions (24th)
- 317 yards (31st)
- 73.5% catch rate (26th)
- 8.8 yards per reception (30th)
- 0.76 yards per route run (34th)
- 28.6% contested catch rate (30th)
- -0.02 EPA per target (30th)
- 5.9 yards per target (32nd)
- 4.3% first down rate (34th)
This is Conklin’s worst season with the Jets in every one of those metrics (on a per-game basis where necessary). The lower compilation stats (receptions and yards) make sense because of Davante Adams’ arrival in New York and Rodgers’ propensity for shying away from tight ends.
You can argue that the efficiency numbers fall on Rodgers’ plate, too. I have not been able to find any metrics showing a receiver’s on-target or catchable rate, but Rodgers’ on-target rate is poor. Still, it’s hard to explain Conklin’s decline in efficiency metrics, especially EPA per target.
One of the hallmarks of Conklin’s game in his previous two seasons with the Jets was contested catching. From 2022-23, he went 21-for-31 (67.7%) in that area, ranking first and third among tight ends in each season, respectively. This year, he’s just 2-for-7 (28.6%).
That number is particularly alarming in light of the biggest weakness of Conklin’s game: creating separation. Although he has a wicked rocker step that can freeze linebackers in their tracks when he uses it, his 4.8 speed and lack of agility generally force tight windows.
ESPN’s receiver scores rank Conklin 35th out of 36 tight ends in separation, which is virtually identical to his rank last season (43rd/44). However, his overall receiver score has dropped from the 20th percentile to the 3rd primarily because of the drop in his contested catches.
(That also tells you ESPN’s metrics didn’t like Conklin much in the first place, even in 2023 when his numbers weren’t as poor.)
Perhaps most importantly, Conklin’s best numbers with the Jets are not worse than they were in 2021 with the Vikings, for the most part. He did have far better EPA per target (0.11 in 2021 vs. 0.02 last season), but his other numbers were in the same range, including his first down rate, catch rate, and catch rate over expected.
Kirk Cousins had a 33:7 TD:INT ratio that season and ranked fourth in passer rating and ninth in DVOA. If that’s how Conklin did with a top quarterback performance, this is likely just who Conklin is: a below-average receiving tight end who can be a compiler at times.
Blocking
As poor as Conklin’s receiving metrics are this season, his blocking is even worse, specifically in the run game.
Among 45 tight ends with at least 175 run-blocking snaps, Conklin ranks 44th with a 41.2 PFF run-blocking grade. He may be the single biggest reason for the Jets’ poor run-blocking statistics this season.
Consider the rankings of the Jets’ offensive linemen in PFF run-blocking grade.
- LT Tyron Smith + Olu Fashanu: 68.8 (51st percentile)
- LG John Simpson: 80.3 (89th percentile)
- C Joe Tippmann: 74.3 (74th percentile)
- RG Alijah Vera-Tucker: 74.0 (76th percentile)
- RT: Morgan Moses: 62.4 (38th percentile)
This would indicate that, at least according to PFF, the tight end position has been the primary culprit in the Jets’ run-blocking woes. The Jets’ other offensive linemen have been respectable in the run game. This doesn’t fall all on Conklin, as Jeremy Ruckert (37.8) has been even worse. But it’s clear that Conklin is a big part of the problem.
Even more revealingly, per Sports Info Solutions, Conklin has a 4.5% blown block rate — the worst among 35 qualified tight ends. That is 1.6% worse than the next-closest tight end (Hunter Henry, 2.9%). 1.6% is equal to the difference between the 13th-ranked tight end on the list (Charlie Kolar, 1.3%) and Henry. So the difference between Conklin and Henry is equal to the difference between Henry and 21 spots above him.
Purely grades-wise, this is by far Conklin’s worst season as a run-blocker. He was over 50.0 in every other season of his career when he had at least 160 run-blocking snaps. However, that still translated to poor percentile rankings, as 2023 was the only season in which he ranked above the 20th percentile (and even then he was in the 30th percentile).
To what extent can the Jets afford to have a tight end who can’t run-block?
There is virtually no correlation between the run-blocking grade of an offense’s primary run-blocking tight end and rushing output (0.02 multiple R² for yards per carry, 0.04 for success rate). On film, though, Conklin’s issues as a run-blocker are apparent on virtually every type of assignment he has.
Near the goal line, blowing a block can be catastrophic. Conklin is the second tight end in line, technically in an H-back position. Tyron Smith takes too long to climb to the blitzing linebacker, which blows up the play to the inside. By the time Hall veers outside, the defensive back had closed outside and would likely be able to make the tackle.
Still, Conklin’s blown block could have resulted in a safety. He bends from the waist with passive hands, allowing the edge defender to win first contact and toss him aside.
Here, Conklin is the in-line tight end. Once again, he comes in high and gets stood up by the edge defender, keeping him on his toes. The defender jerks him aside and makes the tackle.
Conklin’s missed block likely costs the Jets a touchdown. First, Conklin gets stood up, preventing John Simpson from getting to his block (although Simpson’s angle is likely too flat, anyway). Then, because Conklin is pushed so far into the backfield, Hall cannot just dive forward to the end zone. By the time the traffic clears, the linebacker completely sheds Conklin, leading to the stuff.
Despite the traffic, if Conklin had been able to hold his block, this probably would have been a touchdown.
Not recognizing that a blitz could be coming is a problem for the Jets’ run-blocking in general, but specifically for Conklin. When the 8-technique over him moves inside with Jeremy Ruckert’s motion, Conklin should expect someone to replace him on the edge, especially since Budda Baker (No. 3), a known blitzer, is lurking. Instead, Conklin takes a large step to the right, forcing him to stop his feet to try to recover back to Baker.
It looks like Kenny Yeboah also blows his responsibility here, but it’s Baker who drops Braelon Allen for a loss.
Conklin comes across the formation at the snap, bends at the waist, and tries to thump Greg Rousseau. Instead, Rousseau dips his shoulder, avoiding Conklin’s contact and pushing him into Jeremy Ruckert. This completely closes any hole that would have been there for Allen.
Who else?
As poor as Conklin’s play has been this year, there are no other starting options on the free agent market. Juwan Johnson comes the closest, and he was second on the depth chart in New Orleans behind Taysom Hill and is still splitting snaps with Fabian Moreau now that Hill is out for the year. Other names include Mo Alie-Cox, Harrison Bryant, Pharaoh Brown, Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz, and Mike Gesicki.
On NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board, there are two tight ends currently ranked in the top 32: Michigan’s Colston Loveland (No. 17) and Penn State’s Tyler Warren (No. 18). Take that with a grain of salt, as mock drafts at this time of year hardly mean much. But suffice it to say that if there were objections to taking Brock Bowers in the first round, those players will likely cook up a hailstorm, even if the Jets aren’t in the quarterback conversation.
Outside of the first round, the next-highest tight end prospect is Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. (No. 59), followed by LSU’s Mason Taylor (No. 77) and Texas’ Gunnar Helm (No. 98). The Jets can and likely will take a tight end somewhere in that range.
The problem is that tight ends so rarely step into the starting lineup and perform like starters from Day 1. Bowers has done so, as did Sam LaPorta (second-round pick) last season.
But even the highly-regarded Dalton Kincaid took a while last year (and still hasn’t quite lived up to the hype), and second-rounders Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Luke Schoonmaker, and Brenton Strange haven’t made more than sporadic contributions thus far. Trey McBride was a second-round pick in 2022 but didn’t do much as a rookie.
Tight end is a very tricky position in the NFL, no matter what round a player is drafted in. Therefore, the chances that any drafted player will become a starter right away are very slim.
That being the case, there don’t seem to be any other readymade options for the Jets to pursue. This makes Conklin the natural fallback plan.
The bigger question is how much money they’ll need to commit to him. It’s not as if he should have a large market, especially with his counting stats down this season. (For better or worse, NFL players still largely get paid based on box score stats. Just ask the Eagles and their fans about Bryce Huff.)
Conklin’s original deal with the Jets was for three years and $20.25 million. Presumably, any contract this time around would not be longer than two years given his age (he’ll be 30 by the time next season starts). Still, Conklin’s $6.75 million APY is currently 19th among tight ends. He certainly should not exceed that amount, but it remains to be seen if the Jets can get him for cheaper.
For example, after posting 50 catches for 582 yards and three touchdowns for the Falcons last year, Jonnu Smith received just $4.2 million APY for two years from Miami. Could the Jets get Conklin down to that?
Bottom line
Ultimately, the Jets seemingly have no choice but to re-sign Conklin. Perhaps they can go the Juwan Johnson route, but there really isn’t any advantage there. I’m sure they’ll sign some other veteran(s) to round out the position, as well. They’ll probably also draft at least one tight end.
But if the Jets want to avoid the risk of the same tight end depth that they had in 2020-21, they’ll need to bring Conklin back. It’s uninspiring, it’s not a great position to be in, but it’s the only answer at this point.
