A merciful end is finally on the horizon.
As the New York Jets go through the final motions of a tragic act, the fanbase is split. Some fans want to see New York spoil the rival Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes. Others are all aboard the tank, hoping to see the Jets climb as high on the board as possible.
Entering Week 10, the Jets held the seventh overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. This remains true today, but their range of outcomes has shrunk after Saturday’s games. Going into Saturday, the Jets could have finished anywhere from No. 2 to No. 10. Now, their ceiling is No. 3, while their floor is No. 9.
Here is how the top 12 stands entering the final Sunday of the 2024 season:
- Cleveland (3-14 / .543 SOS)
- New Engalnd (3-13 / .469)
- Tennessee (3-13 / .516)
- NY Giants (3-13 / .551)
- Jacksonville (4-12 / .473)
- Carolina (4-12 / .498)
- NY Jets (4-12 / .498)
- Las Vegas (4-12 / .543)
- Chicago (4-12 / .555)
- New Orleans (5-11 / .505)
- San Francisco (6-10 / .566)
- Indianapolis (7-9 / .458)
Cleveland’s loss on Saturday ensures they will finish with a worse record than New York. The Jets also cannot surpass New England even if the teams end up tied at 4-13, as the Patriots have clinched a weaker strength-of-schedule.
However, the Jets have the opportunity to pass any of the teams slotted from No. 3 through No. 6, giving them a ceiling of the third overall pick.
The furthest the Jets can drop is the ninth overall pick, which would happen if the Jets won while the Raiders and Bears lost. While the Jets can tie the Saints’ record, the Jets cannot drop below them in the draft order, as New York clinched a weaker SOS than New Orleans after Saturday’s results.
If you are one of the brave Jets fans who stands against division-rivalry traditions and prefers to see the team rise in the draft order, here is your rooting guide for Week 18. If the Jets get each of these four outcomes to fall their way, New York’s new general manager will possess the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
Panthers win @ Falcons
The Jets can smoothly pass Carolina in the draft order with a loss and a Carolina win, but there is actually a path for New York to pass Carolina even if both teams lose (or win).
Entering Week 18, Carolina had a weaker SOS than New York by one game. However, New York received great news on Saturday, as Cincinnati’s win over Pittsburgh put the teams in a deadlock SOS tie (.498).
There are four more games on the schedule that will impact the SOS battle between Carolina and New York. These are the results that would benefit New York:
- Bears win @ Packers
- Chiefs win @ Broncos
- Cardinals win vs. 49ers
- Lions win vs. Vikings
Each game carries equal weight, so the equation is simple: Whoever gets the majority of these results to fall their way will have the weaker SOS.
But what if they split?
A 2-2 tie between those four results would mean New York and Carolina finish tied in SOS. Not long ago, a tie in SOS would have resulted in a coin toss to determine the higher pick. This silly rule was finally abolished in 2019. Now, if two teams tie in SOS, the tiebreaker moves on to the tiebreaking procedures that would be used to determine the higher seed in the standings (with the losing team earning the higher pick).
If New York and Carolina tie in SOS, Carolina is currently projected to win the tiebreaker by way of the fifth condition of the interconference tiebreaking procedure. According to the NFL’s official website, this is the tiebreaking procedure for two teams from different conferences:
- Strength of schedule (Would be tied in this scenario)
- Head-to-head (NYJ and CAR did not play)
- Common games, minimum of four (NYJ and CAR only have two common games – ARI and DEN – so tiebreaker does not apply)
- Strength of victory (NYJ and CAR are tied at .297)
- Combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games (NYJ 45, CAR 57)
I was a little confused by the wording of that fifth condition. Thankfully, the NFL provides a clear explanation:
To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team’s position in the two categories; the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is “3.”
Entering Sunday, New York ranks 24th in points per game and 21st in points allowed per game. That’s a score of 45. Meanwhile, Carolina is 25th in points per game and 32nd in points allowed per game, resulting in a score of 57. It’s realistically impossible for Carolina to close this gap in the final week of the season.
Carolina will win if the teams end up tied in SOS and the tiebreaker goes down to the fifth condition. However, before it gets to that point, it is possible for New York to defeat Carolina by way of the fourth condition, strength of victory.
Currently, the Jets and Panthers are tied in strength of victory with an identical .297, but the records of the opponents they each defeated will change after Week 18. If the Jets’ victims fare worse than the Panthers’ victims this week, the Jets would finish with the higher draft pick if the two teams tie in both record and SOS.
This means the Jets would benefit from losses by the Titans, Patriots, Texans, and Jaguars (although two of those are counterproductive for the greater goal of climbing to No. 3), while the Panthers would benefit from losses by the Raiders, Saints, Giants, and Cardinals.
Get all that?
If Carolina wins in Atlanta at 1 p.m. ET, all of this gobbledygook (yes, I pulled up a thesaurus to find that word) becomes obsolete in the Jets’ quest for No. 3, as it would open the door for New York to simply finish with a worse record by losing in the late afternoon (although it still comes into play if New York and Carolina both win).
Jaguars win @ Colts
The Jets’ Week 15 win over Jacksonville looms large. If you flip that game to a loss, the Jets would currently hold the third overall pick, having a chance to clinch the No. 1 pick today with a loss and a Patriots win over a resting Bills team. Alas, it’s just another draft-order what-if in a long line of them for Jets fans.
Jacksonville has clinched a weaker SOS than New York, so there is no SOS drama to talk about here. The Jets can only pass Jacksonville with a loss and a Jaguars win against the eliminated Colts.
Giants win @ Eagles
The Giants have faced the third-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. They have clinched a stronger SOS than the Jets, so if the two MetLife residents end up tied, the Jets will get the higher pick.
Philadelphia will be resting ahead of a wild card matchup next week, so the Giants will have a chance to build on their shockingly explosive victory over the Colts last week.
Titans win vs. Texans
Like the Giants, the Jets have clinched a lower SOS than the Titans, so the Jets will pick higher if the two teams end up tied.
Tennessee won the first matchup against Houston, and that was on the road. Playing at home today against a resting Texans team that is locked into the fourth seed, the Titans are actually 1.5-point favorites.
NY Jets Week 18 Tank Rooting Guide
If the Jets lose, each of the following results will push the Jets up one spot in the draft order; should all four of them occur, the Jets will pick third in the 2025 NFL draft:
- Panthers win @ Falcons
- Jaguars win @ Colts
- Giants win @ Eagles
- Titans win vs. Texans
The only caveat is that Carolina’s victory may not be necessary if things break right for New York to steal the tiebreaker. As a reminder, these are the games that would help the Jets make that happen:
- Bears win @ Packers
- Chiefs win @ Broncos
- Cardinals win vs. 49ers
- Lions win vs. Vikings
If the Jets get the majority of those four games, they will clinch a lower SOS than Carolina, and vice versa. If the games are split, the tiebreaker will go down to strength of victory.
In the event that the Jets win, here are the outcomes that would protect the Jets from falling any further than No. 7:
- Bears win @ Packers
- Raiders win vs. Chargers
