On Tuesday, we sorted the New York Jets’ 13 reported head coach targets into tiers. With that exercise in the rearview, it’s time to take things a step further and predict what will actually happen.
Here are my predictions for who each of the six NFL teams with head coaching vacancies will end up hiring. As a bonus, I will predict the Jets’ general manager hire alongside their head coach.
To be clear, these are predictions, not endorsements.
Las Vegas Raiders
With the recent news that part-owner Tom Brady will assist in the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coaching search, I lean toward Las Vegas hiring someone with ties to Brady. It seems that everyone around Brady worships the ground he walks on (just listen to how his FOX colleagues force rambunctious laughs at every bad joke he makes), so I envision the Raiders greatly valuing Brady’s input.
Brady knows what a winning culture looks like, and he can see that Las Vegas has had nothing resembling the sort in a long time. I think Brady will favor options with ties to the championship culture he knows from New England, and among those, Brian Flores is the best fit for what Las Vegas will be looking for.
Long mired in mediocrity, the Raiders need a culture-changer, and the hard-nosed Flores would accomplish that. He’s a fit for the Raiders’ blue-collar brand while also bringing standards back to the organization.
Prediction: Brian Flores
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has a quarterback with the fourth-largest guaranteed salary in the NFL despite never ranking top-10 in passer rating or passing touchdowns across his four seasons. That’s a major roadblock to team-building.
Everything the Jaguars do going forward has to be about getting their money’s worth out of Trevor Lawrence. With the salary he’s getting paid, if he continues to produce at the same level he has throughout his career, Jacksonville is going nowhere fast.
For that reason, I envision Jacksonville leaning heavily toward offensive-minded candidates who they believe can construct the perfect system around Lawrence. Among the candidates they’ve requested to interview, that leaves Ben Johnson, Kellen Moore, Todd Monken, and Joe Brady.
Johnson, who has a cushy job in Detroit, seems to be a picky candidate. With Jacksonville retaining maligned general manager Trent Baalke, I don’t think Johnson would be eager to take the job.
Among the remaining candidates, I think Jaguars owner Shad Khan will lean toward the coach with the best reputation in quarterback maximization. That would be Liam Coen.
A former UMass quarterback and a longtime quarterback coach at both the NFL and college levels, Coen had a breakout 2024 season in his first year as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator. Coen led Baker Mayfield to career-highs in passing touchdowns (41), completion percentage (71.4%), and passer rating (106.8). The Buccaneers finished with the seventh-best offense based on DVOA.
Khan will love the work Coen did with another mid-career number-one pick in Mayfield and bet that he can do the same with Lawrence.
Prediction: Liam Coen
New Orleans Saints
I believe the Saints will lean toward a defensive hire after a 2024 season in which their team became soft on that side of the ball.
Previously a proud defensive organization, New Orleans ranked 21st in defensive DVOA, its first time finishing outside the top 15 since 2016. Additionally, while it is an archaic stat, they were an abysmal 30th in total defense, allowing the seventh-most yards per game in the franchise’s 58-year history (379.9). This stat will probably carry even greater weight in the eyes of the front office and ownership than DVOA.
After years of seeing Drew Brees’ elite offenses wasted by horrid defenses in the 2010s, I think longtime general manager Mickey Loomis has nightmares from that era and will continue to prioritize giving New Orleans a defensive identity. He tried (and failed) to do this with his previous hire, Dennis Allen.
The Saints have tended to value familiarity. In 2022, Allen was promoted from the defensive coordinator position, and Aaron Glenn, the Saints’ defensive backs coach, was the runner-up in that search.
Three years later, Glenn finds himself back in the mix for the New Orleans job, although he is a much more popular candidate this time around. With other franchises leaning toward offensive hires, I think the Saints will scoop up a familiar face who has become one of the league’s most coveted defensive minds.
Prediction: Aaron Glenn
Chicago Bears
Offense, offense, offense. That is the lone word on the minds of Chicagoans.
This is not to say that Chicago’s defense (22nd in DVOA) is without faults, but the Bears’ desperation for an offensive resurgence is reaching dire levels. Despite adding number-one pick Caleb Williams and numerous offensive weapons, the Bears still ranked 27th in offensive DVOA. It is their sixth straight season outside of the top 20, and they have not finished top-10 since 2015. Their last top-5 season was 1995.
It was same-old, same-old for the offensively challenged franchise. Most importantly, Williams’ rookie season was rocky, paling in comparison to fellow rookies Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. Getting Williams on track is the only thing that matters for Chicago.
The Bears are a team equipped to hire someone like Ben Johnson or Joe Brady – a young, hotshot offensive coordinator who is oozing with potential as a schemer, but may have questions regarding their ability to lead an entire team. For Chicago, the latter issues simply do not matter right now. They just need to make sure Williams fulfills his potential and the offense pulls itself out of the mud. The defense and the rah-rah locker room speeches can take a back seat.
Personally, I think it is between Johnson and Brady for Chicago. Their ownership is going to prioritize a recent track record of elite offensive production above all else, particularly with a forward-thinking mindset. Johnson and Brady are the clubhouse leaders in that department.
This might be a hot take, but I have a hunch that Johnson will not land a head coaching job. Johnson reportedly has strict demands to leave his comfortable position in Detroit and become a head coach. He has already turned down head coach interviews in multiple prior head coach cycles, denying the Panthers in 2023 and the Titans in 2024.
I get the sense of two things: 1) Johnson is not eager to throw away a role that is perfect for him, and 2) Johnson’s selectivity could rub teams the wrong way in interviews. While he is an intriguing candidate based on his on-field accomplishments, the rumors about his actions in the head coaching cycle suggest he may be somewhat arrogant regarding his status in the league. That might be off-putting to some owners.
That leaves Brady. Still only 35 years old after putting multiple impressive stops on his resume – a breakout 2019 season as the passing game coordinator at LSU, an overachieving 2020 season as the OC in Carolina, and a fantastic 2024 season as the OC in Buffalo – I think Chicago will view Brady as the best potential solution to their offensive woes.
Prediction: Joe Brady
New England Patriots
The writing is all over the wall.
New England immediately fired its head coach after the season, only for reports to soon follow that a certain candidate was using the Jets to pressure the Patriots into making a move. After that, New England rushed to satisfy the Rooney Rule with two candidates who they probably are not seriously considering (Pep Hamilton and Byron Leftwich). An interview with their real target will commence on Thursday.
I would be surprised if Mike Vrabel is not the next head coach of the New England Patriots.
Prediction: Mike Vrabel
New York Jets
Hopefully you did not skip to this section, because if you didn’t, the suspense is running high right now. Many of the Jets’ most popular options are off the board.
Among the 13 candidates who have been officially linked to the Jets, here are the nine remaining names who I have not attached to a team:
- Rex Ryan
- Matt Nagy
- Ron Rivera
- Darren Rizzi
- Brian Griese
- Arthur Smith
- Bobby Slowik
- Vance Joseph
- Josh McCown
Knowing the New York Jets, I’ve come to realize that the best prediction is usually the least exciting one. Any of these nine candidates would probably garner a collective groan from the green faithful. But what volume of a groan am I going with?
Think about what Woody Johnson is likely seeking. “Experience” is likely a word he has double-underlined in his notebook. Under the pressure of a 14-year playoff drought, I sense that Johnson is unwilling to take the supposed risk of a first-time head coach.
With that in mind, though, here are the remaining options after removing candidates who do not have head coach experience in the NFL (excluding interim experience):
- Rex Ryan
- Matt Nagy
- Ron Rivera
- Arthur Smith
- Vance Joseph
Johnson also knows that, like the Bears, this franchise’s issues are primarily rooted in the offensive side of the ball. He is surely tired of watching the offense flounder every season and wants to start putting up points in a world where fantasy football stars rule the headlines.
And then there were two:
- Matt Nagy
- Arthur Smith
Between Nagy and Smith, Johnson will pick the coach who is closely connected with the league’s current dynasty. He is the man who has been an OC for Patrick Mahomes, has the approval of Andy Reid, and brings head coach experience to the table: Matt Nagy.
Again, this is a prediction, not an endorsement. I had Nagy in the D tier of my rankings.
Prediction: Matt Nagy
As a bonus, for their general manager hire, I predict the Jets will pair Nagy with another longtime prominent member of the Chiefs organization during the Andy Reid era: assistant general manager Mike Borgonzi.
Final predictions
- Raiders: Brian Flores
- Jaguars: Liam Coen
- Saints: Aaron Glenn
- Bears: Joe Brady
- Patriots: Mike Vrabel
- Jets: Matt Nagy (with GM Mike Borgonzi)
