As Prince Hamlet once said: “To run it back, or not to run it back, that is the question.”
Whether or not the New York Jets will keep Aaron Rodgers continues to be the prevailing storyline surrounding the star-crossed football franchise. With their new coaching staff and front office all but filled, the spotlight has returned to its usual position: directly above No. 8.
One of the most critical pieces of the Jets’ (and Rodgers’) decision will be the 41-year-old quarterback’s fit in the scheme of new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. With both sides teetering on the fence, Rodgers’ fit in Engstrand’s offense could be the factor that pushes this decision to one side or the other.
Recently, we broke down the makeup of the Detroit Lions’ offensive scheme during Engstrand’s three years as the team’s passing game coordinator. While it is unclear whether Engstrand plans to replicate this offense, create something new with only mild influence from Detroit, or find a middle ground between Detroit and his personal vision, his Detroit days still give us a solid starting point regarding what the Jets’ offense might look like.
Today, we will identify some of the most distinct qualities of Detroit’s offense and analyze whether those qualities are an ideal fit for Rodgers’ skill set at this stage of his career. Again, keep in mind that we do not know whether New York’s offense will actually operate this way. For now, though, it is the only reference point we can use to try and project what a Tanner Engstrand-led Jets offense might look like.
Let’s jump right into it.
12 personnel and play action
One of the Lions’ defining qualities in 2024 was their heavy reliance on 12 personnel packages (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR).
Detroit did not start out as a heavy 12 personnel team under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, but they massively increased their usage of the package in both 2023 and 2024, ultimately becoming one of the league’s top users of 12 personnel in 2024. They deployed 12 personnel on 32.3% of their offensive plays, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, ranking third-highest in the NFL.
The Jets ranked in the middle of the pack, placing 17th with a 20.9% usage rate of 12 personnel.
Rodgers was ineffective when the Jets utilized 12 personnel. He produced 0.01 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback, which ranked 25th out of 39 qualifiers. Rodgers also had a CPOE (completion percentage over expected) of -7.9%, placing 35th. His company at the bottom of that list is not very inspiring.
Lowest CPOE out of 12 personnel, 2024 (min. 200 total pass attempts):
- Kirk Cousins (-19.0%)
- Cooper Rush (-18.2%)
- Spencer Rattler (-10.5%)
- Deshaun Watson (-8.3%)
- Aaron Rodgers (-7.9%)
- Anthony Richardson (-5.5%)
- Mac Jones (-4.5%)
- Geno Smith (-3.8%)
- Bryce Young (-3.4%)
- Caleb Williams (-1.9%)
In fairness to Rodgers, these results could be partially due to the Jets’ lack of depth at tight end. However, his physical decline is likely the primary reason.
Rodgers was notorious for getting the ball out quickly in 2024. His 2.69-second average time to throw ranked fifth-lowest out of 39 qualifiers. This is mostly due to his declining mobility and accumulating injury history, as he’d prefer to hang in the pocket and release the ball before he gets hit or is forced to create. A quick-release mentality allows Rodgers to slice up defenses using his still-elite brain and arm talent while relying less on the lower-body athleticism that deteriorates with age.
However, on 12 personnel plays, Rodgers was forced to hang onto the ball and make things happen. He averaged 3.16 seconds to throw on 12 personnel plays, the NFL’s fifth-highest mark. Compare this to his 2.58 seconds on 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR) plays, which was fourth-lowest.
This is problematic when projecting Rodgers to a 12-heavy offense, because that disparity is not just a Rodgers thing. League-wide, passing plays with 12 personnel tend to take longer to develop. Since teams tend to run the ball at a much higher rate out of 12 personnel, they commonly use the run threat to call play action out of it, which extends the duration of a play. On 11 personnel plays, there’s less of a run threat, leading to less play action and thus quicker release times.
In 2024, the NFL average TTT on 12 personnel plays with 2.92 seconds, compared to 2.78 seconds on 11 personnel. An 11-heavy offense is more befitting for quarterbacks who prefer getting the ball out quickly, which is part of why the Jets leaned heavily on 11 personnel in 2024 (70.4% of plays, 11th-highest).
Largely thanks to their heavy 12 personnel usage, Detroit called play action on 36.8% of their passing plays in 2024, leading the NFL. The Jets were down at 23.3%, slightly below the 23.6% league average. More play action correlates with a longer TTT. In 2024, the league average TTT with play action was 3.15 seconds, compared to 2.70 with no play action.
Rodgers made it clear in 2024 that he wants to get the ball out quickly, and a 12-heavy offense would make it tougher for him to do that. I could see Rodgers being hesitant to want to play in an offense that will call heavy 12 personnel and heavy play action, forcing him to hold the ball longer than he would like to at 41-going-on-42.
Pre-snap motion
Rodgers has spoken out against pre-snap motion in the past. In 2022, Rodgers admitted that he would get on Packers head coach Matt LaFleur for calling too much motion. “When you have so much motion, it’s hard to get tempo going. You always have to make sure you’re set, and you have a motion, or a double motion, or a jet off of it,” he explained.
Entering the 2024 season, Rodgers made comments that suggested he was opening his mind to the benefits of motion. Asked about his 2022 anti-motion comments in the week ahead of the 2024 season opener, Rodgers replied, “That was a long time ago. You’ve got to give us space to grow there.”
He continued, “As we’ve seen, there’s a lot of value in the pre-snap motion stuff because it creates a lot of consternation for the defense and it tests their gap control stuff, it tests their rules, it can move multiple guys in the same play, whether it’s the nickel or [line]backers or safeties. It gives them a lot to think about and I think it’s an important part of the offense.”
After Week 1, when the Jets ran pre-snap motion 60.4% of the time, Rodgers suggested that the Jets were committed to running more motion. Asked about it after the game, Rodgers said, “There was a meeting of the chefs. Everyone was in the kitchen throwing in their ingredients. A lot of sous-chefs figuring it out. Ultimately… it’s not different than what we were doing in practice.”
Despite the promising words, Rodgers and the Jets ultimately did not commit to getting with the times. The Jets finished 2024 ranked 25th in pre-snap motion rate at 54.3%. The league average was 62.3%. New York finished one spot behind the Patriots, one ahead of the Titans, and two ahead of the Giants – not the company you want to keep.
Meanwhile, the Lions, like most of the successful offenses in today’s NFL, were among the leaders in pre-snap motion usage. They utilized it on 73.4% of their plays, ranking sixth-highest. One spot ahead was Buffalo, and one spot behind was Kansas City – excellent company.
Detroit ranked top-six in pre-snap motion rate in each of Engstrand’s three seasons as the passing game coordinator. This was a night-and-day shift from their 21st-ranked placement in the season prior to Engstrand and Ben Johnson’s promotions.
Rodgers’ continued aversion to pre-snap motion is detrimental to whatever team he plays for. There is a strong correlation between motion usage and offensive success. In 2024, seven of the top eight teams in pre-snap motion rate finished top-12 in offensive DVOA (per FTN Fantasy). Meanwhile, only two of the bottom 10 teams in pre-snap motion rate finished top-12 in offensive DVOA; seven of the 10 finished bottom-16.
It is difficult to say how much of the Jets’ 2024 motion rate falls on Rodgers versus the coaching staff, but we know that Rodgers had significant input in the offensive scheme (the initial OC was one of his best friends, after all), so it seems likely that Rodgers remains opposed to motion relative to the lofty modern standards. That would probably not mesh well with Engstrand, a younger coordinator from a forward-thinking offense that loved pre-snap motion.
Route types
In-breakers/In routes
The Jets and Lions had vastly different route distributions in 2024, which can be broken down in a variety of ways.
Perhaps the main difference was the reliability on inside-breaking routes. Detroit’s offense was built around these throws; the Lions ranked second in the NFL with 36.7% of their pass attempts targeting in-breakers. Only the 49ers (37.7%) had a higher rate. Meanwhile, the Jets avoided these, ranking 25th with 29.5% of their pass attempts targeting in-breakers.
Rodgers’ preference for avoiding the middle of the field has been well-documented for much of his career. It is one of the main reasons why Rodgers is historically great at avoiding interceptions. The middle of the field is where passes have the highest chance of being intercepted. By focusing on throws outside of the numbers and checkdowns, Rodgers rarely puts the ball in harm’s way.
Detroit’s favorite in-breaking route relative to the league average was the “in” (also known as the “dig”), which comprised an NFL-high 11.1% of Detroit’s pass attempts. This is almost double the league average (6.2%). Conversely, the Jets ranked 30th, with just 3.5% of their attempts targeting in routes.
When targeting in routes, the Lions completed 44-of-61 attempts for a league-high 689 yards. Rodgers went 9-of-19 for 154 yards, ranking 32nd out of 39 qualifiers with a -15.0% CPOE.
This is another potential area of conflict between Rodgers and Engstrand. Throwing over the middle is Detroit’s bread and butter. Not only does Rodgers prefer to avoid these throws, but he struggled mightily when targeting them in 2024.
Vertical routes/Go routes
The flip side of the in-breaking disparity in Detroit’s favor is the vertical disparity in New York’s favor.
The Jets ranked sixth in the NFL with 19.6% of their pass attempts targeting a vertical route. Detroit neglected these throws more than any other team, ranking last with a 12.2% rate.
Rodgers loved the “go” route. The Jets led the NFL with 14.2% of their pass attempts targeting go routes. Detroit ranked 32nd at 5.2%.
Detroit’s offense is horizontal. They want to use the threat of their run game to draw the linebackers with play action and throw the ball over their heads to receivers across the middle. The 2024 Jets offense was the polar opposite. It actively avoided the middle of the field and preferred to work outside.
If Engstrand even comes close to Detroit’s route distribution tendencies, Rodgers will have to be open to some major adjustments in his play style to make this work.
Not a fit
In many ways, the Jets and Lions’ offenses could hardly have been more different in 2024. That is worrisome regarding Rodgers’ potential fit under Engstrand, and it is because of one crucial factor: New York’s offense was built to Rodgers’ exact specifications.
The Jets hired one of Rodgers’ best friends as the OC. Two of the top three wide receivers were his friends from Green Bay. He was given extensive control at the line of scrimmage. Considering these factors, it is easy to surmise that the 2024 Jets offense is an accurate model of Rodgers’ personal preferences.
And if those are Rodgers’ personal preferences, he would have to do a complete 180 in many areas to match what the Lions did in 2024.
Rodgers likes spreading things out with three receivers and getting the ball out quickly. Detroit liked using two tight ends and calling play action, extending the play duration.
Rodgers is not a fan of pre-snap motion. It is a core aspect of Detroit’s identity.
Rodgers avoids throwing over the middle, whereas it is the primary weapon of Detroit’s offense.
Rodgers loves throwing go routes. Detroit throws them less than anybody.
The outlook for Rodgers would be different if we could fully attribute the Jets’ 2024 offensive scheme to the coach/coaching staff. It would be easier to project Rodgers as malleable enough to make significant stylistic changes under a new coach.
That was his offense, though. It showed us how Rodgers wants to play the game in his perfect world. Now, he is expected to switch up his entire game for a rookie OC? Hey, maybe Rodgers will surprise us all, but color me skeptical.
The catch in all of this is that we don’t know whether the 2024 Lions are an accurate model for what the 2025 Jets will look like. Engstrand could go in a completely different direction that is a better fit for Rodgers. That is not to say Engstrand will mold his offense for a stopgap quarterback who will play one more season with the team, but Engstrand has roots from various different schemes, so he might end up creating something that strays from Detroit’s identity and moves closer to something that Rodgers would be on board with.
We won’t know until we see the Jets on the field. For now, though, all we can go off of is the influence that Detroit had on Engstrand over the past three years. And if the Jets do end up running an offense that is anywhere close to the Lions, Rodgers would be required to play a completely different style of football to make it work.
Maybe Rodgers is open to that, maybe not – only he knows. The only fact at hand is this: Engstrand hails from an offensive scheme with a nearly polar opposite identity from the one Rodgers handcrafted in 2024.
