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NY Jets: What will Tanner Engstrand’s offensive scheme look like?

Tanner Engstrand, NY Jets, OC, Harbaugh, Ben Johnson, Scheme, 2025
Tanner Engstrand, New York Jets, Getty Images, Jet X Graphic

With another defensive head coach at the helm, the New York Jets’ offensive coordinator hire was going to be a critical one. Former Detroit Lions passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand was ultimately chosen to shoulder the Herculean challenge.

Fixing the Jets’ offense is arguably the most daunting challenge in professional football. New York has gone nine consecutive seasons without ranking top-22 in points per game, and 26 consecutive seasons without ranking top-8. They have registered one top-10 finish in the 21st century (2008). The last and only time New York led the league in scoring was 1960, the franchise’s debut season – when there were only eight teams in the AFL.

Many have tried to reverse the Jets’ fortunes on offense, and while some coaches have managed to produce a respectable season here or there, none have succeeded for a sustained period. Engstrand will be the team’s 13th offensive coordinator since the turn of the century and 10th since the beginning of their active playoff drought.

The hope is that Engstrand can carry over the success he contributed to with the Lions. Across Engstrand’s three seasons as the team’s passing game coordinator (2022-24), Detroit led the NFL in scoring (29.0 PPG), finishing top-five in all three seasons.

Of course, hiring another team’s passing game coordinator does not guarantee a copy-and-paste of that team’s offensive production. Engstrand must establish his own identity and philosophy in a new situation, while incorporating bits and pieces of what he learned in Detroit.

This begs the question: What will the Jets’ offensive scheme look like under Engstrand?

Until the Jets’ new OC speaks to the media for the first time, we won’t have much of a clue. Even then, Engstrand may only leave us with tiny breadcrumbs to nibble on, leaving the definitive answer for Week 1 of the regular season.

It is easy to assume the Jets’ offense will simply become a replica of what we saw in Detroit over the past three seasons. However, Engstrand has been exposed to sveral other types of offenses in his football career.

In one interview, Engstrand said his “initial background is in more of a west coast offense.” Engstrand cited the influence of Jim Harbaugh, who he worked under at the University of San Diego (2005-06) and Michigan (2018).

Considering his west coast background, it is reasonable to believe Engstrand’s offense may be some sort of fusion between the influences of Harbaugh and former Lions OC Ben Johnson.

Again, though: we just don’t know yet. Engstrand might come over and try to completely mimic Johnson’s Lions offense. It wouldn’t be the first time a new Jets OC attempted to do that in the 2020s. Mike LaFleur essentially tried to replicate Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense when he came to New York.

Or, Engstrand could abandon what he learned in Detroit and make a full return to his west coast roots. If this is the case, it would be a reasonable explanation as to why Johnson and Dan Campbell both passed on him as their OC choice this year, which is an oft-cited concern on Engstrand’s resume. Perhaps Engstrand envisions himself running something completely different than what the Lions have become accustomed to, causing Johnson and Campbell to go in different directions. This is just a theory, but it’s certainly a possibility.

Maybe Engstrand abandons both backgrounds and creates something that is entirely his own. We’ll have to wait and see.

For now, what we can do is analyze the Lions’ offensive tendencies during Engstrand’s three years as the passing game coordinator to get a feel for what Engstrand’s Detroit influence really looks like. Time will tell how strongly Engstrand leans into his Detroit influence; today, the goal is to understand what exactly that is.

Last week, we dove deep into the schematic tendencies of Jets defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Analyzing Engstrand’s years with Detroit is a much different endeavor, as Wilks was in charge of his defenses (either as DC or HC) while Engstrand was only the passing game coordinator. The study of Wilks’ background is likely a more accurate indicator of his individual philosophies than this study is for Engstrand.

Still, there are plenty of interesting things to unpack from a schematic point of view, whether it’s personnel packages, motion usage, or play action – and much more.

What are some traits that Engstrand carry over from Detroit’s scheme?

Personnel

Cumulative personnel usage across all three seasons

Averaging together their usage rates and rankings in each season from 2022-24, here were the Lions’ average usage rates and average rankings in each of the different personnel packages (per NFL Next Gen Stats):

  • 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR): 59.4% (21st) – NFL average: 61.4%
  • 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR): 21.5% (15th) – NFL average: 19.9%
  • 13 personnel (1 RB/3 TE/1 WR): 4.5% (11th) – NFL average: 3.8%
  • 22 personnel (2 RB/2 TE/1 WR): 1.1% (20th) – NFL average: 2.3%
  • 10 personnel (1 RB/0 TE/4 WR): 0.8% (15th) – NFL average: 0.5%
  • 20 personnel (2 RB/0 TE/3 WR): 0.2% (24th) – NFL average: 0.4%

Generally speaking, the Lions did not deviate very far from the NFL averages with their personnel usage. They used slightly more 12 and 13 personnel than average, which came in exchange for slightly less 11 personnel than average, but the overall distribution was quite typical.

Where the Lions set themselves apart from a personnel perspective was their usage of extra offensive linemen. From 2022-24, their average usage rate of 6+ offensive linemen was 7.1%, and their average ranking in that category was fifth. In each season, they used 6+ offensive linemen at least 5% of the time and ranked top-seven in the category. Comparatively, the NFL average from 2022-24 was 2.9%.

Only Buffalo and Cleveland utilized 6+ offensive linemen on a higher percentage of their offensive plays than Detroit from 2022-24:

  1. Buffalo Bills (11.5%)
  2. Cleveland Browns (9.1%)
  3. Detroit Lions (7.1%)
  4. New Orleans Saints (6.8%)
  5. Las Vegas Raiders (6.4%)
  6. Tennessee Titans (5.8%)
  7. Cincinnati Bengals (5.2%)
  8. Carolina Panthers (5.2%)
  9. Denver Broncos (4.6%)
  10. New England Patriots (4.2%)

Gradual increase in tight end reliance

More interesting than the Lions’ overall personnel tendencies from 2022-24 is how their tendencies shifted each year. Most notably, they incrementally became a more tight end-reliant team.

Rewind to the 2021 season. It was Dan Campbell’s first year as head coach, and Anthony Lynn was the Lions’ offensive coordinator. Ben Johnson was the passing game coordinator while Engstrand was an offensive quality control coach. That year under Lynn, Detroit deployed 2+ tight ends on a mere 18.8% of their offensive plays, ranking 29th in the NFL.

The following year, Johnson replaced Lynn as the OC. Engstrand stepped into Johnson’s role as the passing game coordinator. This was accompanied by a spike to 23.1% in multi-TE usage, although that still ranked 24th. It’s worth noting that Engstrand was also the Lions’ tight ends coach in 2022, although he dropped that title after the season.

In 2023, the number leaped to 29.5%, pushing Detroit all the way up to 11th. Then, in 2024, the Lions fully embraced this approach, skyrocketing to a 42.5% usage rate of multi-TE sets (7th).

Lions’ usage rate of multi-TE sets:

  • 2021: 18.8% (29th)
  • 2022: 23.1% (24th)
  • 2023: 29.5% (11th)
  • 2024: 42.5% (7th)

This is mostly due to the Lions’ increase in 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR). Here is how their usage rate of 12 personnel changed over the years:

  • 2021: 11.3% (28th)
  • 2022: 11.3% (27th)
  • 2023: 20.8% (14th)
  • 2024: 32.3% (3rd)

In 2024, 12 personnel became the core of Detroit’s offensive identity. They were one of multiple elite teams that can be found in the top 10 of 12 personnel usage this season (although it didn’t work for everyone):

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (35.9%)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (34.0%)
  3. Detroit Lions (32.3%)
  4. Houston Texans (31.5%)
  5. New England Patriots (31.4%)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (31.1%)
  7. New Orleans Saints (30.3%)
  8. Philadelphia Eagles (29.9%)
  9. Arizona Cardinals (28.8%)
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars (26.0%)

The top eight features five teams that advanced to the divisional round, including both Super Bowl participants. It also features the Raiders and Patriots, though, so dialing up the 12 personnel is not a surefire path to success.

You must have the right players and the proper execution to make it work, but it does appear that a 12-heavy offense is a reliable path to success in today’s NFL. It makes sense given the leaguewide trends. Defenses have become faster yet smaller in response to trends such as the normalization of three-receiver sets, the quickening of release times, and play-calling becoming more horizontal and less vertical. In turn, this allows multi-TE sets to physically overwhelm defenses that don’t have the size and strength to match.

Between their heavy reliance on extra offensive linemen and their incremental rise to one of the league’s top users of 12 personnel, Detroit has been one of the leaders in the NFL’s recent resurgence of physical offense.

Motion

Motion is always discussed as one of the hallmarks of a “modern” NFL offense, and rightfully so. Almost all of the best offenses in today’s NFL use it to a substantial degree, while many of the league’s bottom-feeders (such as the team this website covers) strangely choose to stay behind the times despite the predictable results.

This is an area where Johnson (with Engstrand alongside him) clearly wanted to enforce a major shift. The 2021 Lions were 21st in the NFL with a pre-snap motion rate of just 51.1%. After promoting Johnson and Engstrand, Detroit immediately jumped to top-five in 2022, the first of three consecutive top-six finishes.

Lions’ pre-snap motion rate:

  • 2021: 51.1% (21st) – NFL average: 53.5%
  • 2022: 67.9% (5th) – NFL average: 56.5%
  • 2023: 68.0% (6th) – NFL average: 57.2%
  • 2024: 73.4% (6th) – NFL average: 62.3%

As you can see, motion is becoming more commonplace in the league each year. This is why it is crucial to get with the times.

Here are the eight teams who used pre-snap motion at least 70% of the time in 2024. This is a who’s who of respected offensive coaches.

  1. Miami Dolphins (Mike McDaniel): 82.8%
  2. Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay): 82.1%
  3. San Francisco 49ers (Kyle Shanahan): 76.7%
  4. Green Bay Packers (Matt LaFleur): 75.8%
  5. Buffalo Bills (Joe Brady): 75.1%
  6. Detroit Lions (Ben Johnson): 73.4%
  7. Kansas City Chiefs (Andy Reid): 70.6%
  8. Los Angeles Chargers (Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman): 70.2%

Seven of those eight teams finished top-12 in offensive DVOA (per FTN Fantasy), with the exception being Miami, who likely would have finished up there if not for Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries. Seeing the Chargers eighth is noteworthy regarding Engstrand, as Harbaugh is his other primary influence outside of Johnson, so it is promising for Jets fans to know that Harbaugh is also a proponent of motion usage.

Among the teams who used motion at a relatively low rate, most of them had poor offensive seasons, with only a handful of exceptions. These were the bottom 10 teams in pre-snap motion rate in 2024:

  • 23. Indianapolis Colts: 55.3%
  • 24. New England Patriots: 55.2%
  • 25. New York Jets: 54.3%
  • 26. Tennessee Titans: 53.1%
  • 27. New York Giants: 53.1%
  • 28. Cleveland Browns: 51.9%
  • 29. Washington Commanders: 51.7%
  • 30. Arizona Cardinals: 50.4%
  • 31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 49.5%
  • 32. Denver Broncos: 42.6%

Seven of those 10 teams finished outside the top 16 in offensive DVOA. The only exceptions were Washington (6th), Arizona (11th), and Denver (16th).

Heavily utilizing pre-snap motion is one of the most blatantly easy ways for an offensive coach to maximize his team’s chances of success in today’s NFL. Jets fans will be happy to know Engstrand’s background suggests he will likely push New York into the upper echelon of this category.

Other tendencies

Heavily under-center

The NFL has become a shotgun-heavy league, with teams using a shotgun formation on 62.3% of all plays in 2024. However, Detroit went against the grain in this area.

Detroit’s average shotgun usage rate from 2022-24 was 51.7%. They ranked in the bottom three each season, including a 30th-ranked rate of 43.6% in 2024. Only the Falcons and Rams utilized shotgun less often.

Meanwhile, the Lions ranked top-three in under-center rate in each of the past three seasons, including a top-ranked 54.2% in 2024.

The type of player at quarterback significantly influences this metric. With Jared Goff running the offense, Detroit had a player whose skill set made him the perfect fit for this type of usage. It’s not a guarantee that Detroit’s offense would have looked the same with a different quarterback. Still, Detroit took things to such an extreme degree that it is definitely worth noting.

This would be quite the change of pace for the Jets, who ranked 21st in 2024 with an under-center rate of 25.5%. They were 11th in shotgun rate (68.2%).

Spike in play action

Goff’s success out of play action has been one of the Lions’ defining traits over the past few years. However, it actually was not until this past season that Detroit became one of the NFL’s heaviest users of play action.

Lions’ percentage of offensive plays using play action:

  • 2022: 15.5% (14th)
  • 2023: 13.8% (18th)
  • 2024: 19.8% (1st)

Detroit led the NFL with a 19.8% play action rate in 2024, but they only ranked 18th and 14th in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Interestingly enough, right behind Detroit as the second-ranked team in 2024 was… Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers (18.8%).

If Engstrand stays true to his influences, we should certainly expect him to count on a heavy dosage of play action.

Run vs. pass

Analyzing run-pass tendencies is difficult due to the number of variables involved, but it’s still something worth checking out.

These were the Lions’ called run-play rates over the past four years (i.e. QB scrambles are pass plays):

  • 2021: 39.2% (17th)
  • 2022: 42.5% (12th)
  • 2023: 43.3% (5th)
  • 2024: 46.3% (4th)

The first thing that stands out is the clear emphasis on increasing the run-heaviness once Johnson and Engstrand were promoted. Detroit’s rate of called run plays increased by over 3% in 2022.

That increase is especially noteworthy because it was not an ideal year for Detroit to run the ball. The Lions were playing from behind for much of the 2022 season; they started 1-6 and finished the year allowing the fifth-most points per game (25.1). There were few opportunities for Detroit to play with a lead and milk the clock, yet they still ran the ball 42.5% of the time.

Over the next two seasons, Detroit’s defense vastly improved, giving the offense more chances to play with a lead. In turn, the Lions became the run-heavy team they clearly wanted to be in 2022, recording back-to-back top-five finishes in called run-play rate.

The only teams who called run plays on a higher percentage of plays than Detroit in 2024 were the Eagles (51.3%), Packers (49.1%), and Ravens (47.9%). Meanwhile, the Jets struggled to establish the run, ranking 29th (34.1%).

Establishing the run is a goal that Harbaugh shares. His Chargers ranked 10th (42.2%), while back in the early 2010s, Harbaugh’s San Francisco teams ranked top-10 in rush attempts in each of his four seasons there.

Most signs point to Engstrand trying to build an offense around the run game.

A jumping-off point for Engstrand’s offensive vision

As we discussed earlier, it is impossible to know what Engstrand has planned for the Jets’ offense. His vision could look like any possible combination of his past influences. Additionally, other members of the Jets’ coaching staff will have input, namely head coach Aaron Glenn and passing game coordinator Scott Turner.

The point of today’s article is to paint a picture of the influence that Engstrand’s Detroit tenure had on him. To whatever degree he may attempt to emulate Detroit’s offense, these are some of the defining traits he may prioritize:

  • Heavy 12 personnel
  • Relatively frequent usage of 6+ offensive linemen
  • Heavy pre-snap motion
  • Strong preference for under-center over shotgun
  • Heavy play action
  • Build around the run game

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