The search for the New York Jets’ next franchise quarterback has begun.
Many people, myself included, have argued that the Jets’ best course of action is to punt their pursuit of a long-term answer to 2026. For those of us in this camp, the main argument is that the Jets don’t have any appealing options in 2025 through either the veteran market or the draft. Therefore, they should avoid forcing a move and instead strengthen the roster before taking another crack at a QB in 2026.
Allow me to play devil’s advocate to myself for a moment.
If the Jets punt… who exactly are they punting for?
It may seem easy to suggest the Jets should elect to build up the team in 2025 and add a franchise QB in 2026 when the infrastructure around him is sturdier, but as I look toward the future, I start to ponder: if it is so difficult for the Jets to find a franchise QB in 2025, why would it be any easier in 2026?
The more I think about my stance that New York is best suited punting on the QB position this offseason, the more I question whether it is the wisest path.
Punting at QB is an appealing option for teams who know they have a strong chance of earning a top-three draft pick based on the makeup of their roster (a verbose way of saying “tanking”). This is what the Giants did in 2024.
Coming off a 6-win season and already letting Saquon Barkley go, the Giants knew they were probably in for a rough year (even if they would never say that publicly). So instead of forcing the selection of a QB they did not love, they drafted a blue-chip QB-supporting player at No. 6 in Malik Nabers, passing on QB prospects like J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix despite knowing Daniel Jones’ days were likely numbered. One year later, the Giants find themselves three spots higher in the draft, easily positioned to draft their franchise QB, with Nabers in tow.
Unlike last year’s Giants, this year’s Jets are not in an ideal position to tank. While they are not a championship-caliber team and may not even be a wild card team, it is difficult to see them winning any fewer than the five games they won in 2024, which landed them in the draft’s No. 7 slot.
The Jets are more talented than a typical 5-win team. They underachieved in 2024 due to poor performance in close games. Based on their point differential, they were actually expected to win 6.7 games, per Pro Football Reference. So, going into 2025, the Jets’ jumping-off point is closer to that of a 7-win team than a 5-win team, at least based on their cumulative performance across the entire 2024 season.
Compare that to the Giants’ 4.5 expected wins in 2023 (they overachieved by winning 6). Coupled with the ensuing loss of Barkley and an overall uninspiring offseason, it was reasonable to expect the Giants to regress in 2024. The Jets, meanwhile, appear more likely to improve than regress.
With most of the team’s best players returning, more moves to come at areas of weakness across the roster, and a new coaching staff that has immense room for improvement over the previous one, the Jets do not seem poised to win fewer than five games. Again, this is not to paint a rosy picture of the Jets being this year’s Commanders; rather, it is simply to point out that they do not have a strong likelihood of tanking their way into the opportunity to easily draft a new franchise QB in 2026.
It feels more likely than not that New York will end up picking later than seventh overall in the 2026 draft. This means that if they punt on a QB this year, they would probably have to offer a crippling trade-up package to get one of the top prospects in 2026. The alternative is reaching on the best QB available at the slot they land in.
Given that outlook… should the Jets just go ahead and pounce on a QB this year?
There would be more buzz about the Jets selecting a QB in 2025 if the QB class was held in a higher regard. Unfortunately for New York, it is widely viewed as one of the weakest classes in recent history.
According to NFL Mock Draft Database, there are only two QB prospects ranked in the top 38 on the consensus big board: Miami’s Cameron Ward (No. 1) and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (No. 4). After Ward and Sanders, no other QB is currently viewed as a first-round prospect by the consensus. The third-ranked QB prospect is Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart, all the way down at No. 39. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe closely follows Dart (No. 42).
Even Ward and Sanders are likely being propped up solely due to positional value. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport recently reported that Tennessee is open to trading the first overall pick. Considering the Titans are in dire need of a QB, it would be a severe indictment on this QB class if they would rather trade back than stay put and select their favorite QB.
This QB class’s lack of intrigue is the primary driving force behind the argument for New York to punt at QB this offseason. As murky as their path to a QB may be if they wait until 2026 and beyond, the options in 2025 are flat-out unappealing.
But things could be just as bleak a year from now. While many people are hyping up the 2026 QB class, everything can change in the course of one year. Remember when Christian Hackenberg was getting buzz for the No. 1 pick? It is unwise to push your chips in on a class of prospects who still have another full season of football ahead of them.
Even if the 2026 QB class is significantly better, that would only make it more difficult for the Jets to get their hands on one of the top guys if they do not finish with a higher pick. QBs will fly off the board earlier, as teams in a position similar to this year’s Titans – who are thinking twice with a class like 2025’s – will not hesitate to grab one. The competition to trade up will be fiercer.
What happens then? Are the Jets forced to get a QB by any means necessary, even if it means dumping a ludicrous trade package or reaching on a prospect they are not smitten by? Do they kick the can down the road again to 2027?
All of that brings us back to the 2025 draft. Unappealing as the class may be, are the Jets better off skipping the waiting process and getting their hands on a franchise QB now? While they are fairly high in the draft and in the first year of a new regime?
There is an argument to be made for it. However, even if the Jets want to go that route, the hard part is finding a way to make it happen.
While the hype around Ward and Sanders is unusually tame for QB prospects projected to go early in the first round, it still seems unlikely they will fall below the third pick. Each of the top three teams on the board – Tennessee, Cleveland, and the Giants – badly need a quarterback.
Sanders-to-the-Giants almost feels like a lock if he gets there. Cleveland would have a difficult time passing up on the chance to grab a young quarterback after the disastrous past few years they have endured under center. Despite the rumors, Tennessee could still end up taking one of the two QBs if they like what they see throughout the next two months.
It is difficult to tell what it would take for the Jets to get their hands on Ward or Sanders. Perhaps the league is lower on Ward and Sanders than expected, and one will shockingly fall to the seventh pick. Maybe the top three teams aren’t desperate to take one or both of them, and the Jets could grab one by trading up to fourth (Patriots) or fifth (Jaguars) to leapfrog the Raiders at No. 6. Or, maybe the only way is to go all-in and see what Tennessee wants for the top pick.
If Ward or Sanders are unavailable, should the Jets take their favorite remaining QB at No. 7? It seems like an indefensible proposition now, but one or more of the lower-ranked prospects could see their stock skyrocket through the pre-draft process over the next few months. Or, given the current large gap between the second and third-ranked QB prospects, it is also possible that New York could trade back and still select the third-ranked QB prospect later in the first round.
If the current consensus board holds, the Jets might have a chance to take the third or fourth-ranked QB prospect with their second-round pick (No. 42).
All of these proposals are completely hypothetical. Each prospect’s stock will fluctuate between now and the draft. The combine, pro days, and visits remain ahead, along with weeks of intense film-watching and spirited deliberation by each team. We have no idea what the Jets’ options will be by the time draft weekend arrives.
Nonetheless, it is worth pondering whether drafting a QB in 2025 is the Jets’ best course of action. It may seem unappealing in a vacuum given the options, but when considering the total uncertainty of their options in the future, it is not inconceivable to think New York’s new regime may prefer to go ahead and grab their guy ASAP instead of kicking the can down the road.
It would not be unprecedented if the Jets elected to “reach” (in the eyes of the public) for a QB to avoid falling into a perpetual cycle of can-kicking. We saw multiple instances of it in the 2024 draft. Atlanta took Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick; he was the No. 25 overall prospect on the consensus big board, per NFL Mock Draft Database. Denver took Bo Nix, the No. 32 overall prospect, with the 12th pick.
I don’t think either franchise regrets their move. Penix showed flashes of intriguing potential in his three starts, and he will allow the Falcons to quickly move on from their failed Kirk Cousins signing. Nix gradually improved throughout the season and led Denver to the playoffs; his ceiling is high going into 2025.
It is worth noting that Jets general manager Darren Mougey was the assistant GM for Denver last year. He played a significant role in a QB-transition process that is very similar to the one New York is going through. Like the Jets with Aaron Rodgers, the Broncos swung and missed on a big-ticket veteran QB (Russell Wilson), eating a massive cap hit in the wake of their failure. Instead of taking the “bridge” route while they recovered, they immediately jumped on a young QB they felt drawn to.
The Nix pick was primarily driven by the inclination of head coach Sean Payton, one of Aaron Glenn’s biggest influences in his coaching career. In addition to Mougey and Glenn, multiple other members of the Jets’ new regime hail from the Payton coaching tree. It is easy to connect the dots and envision the Jets taking the same approach that Payton did in a very similar situation.
The Penix and Nix selections were made by teams who followed their gut. Neither pick made “sense” if we are judging by the consensus ranking of each prospect, but the Falcons and Broncos fell in love with their respective quarterbacks, believing they were perfect scheme and culture fits. So, instead of throwing a season away with no future at QB, they bet on a guy they felt strongly about, even if it was unpopular.
The jury is out on both players. Perhaps one or both will ultimately go down as a reach of a pick that should not have been made. Still, there is something to be said for valuing “fit” in a quarterback above anything else.
If the Jets are head over heels for one of this year’s QB prospects, believing he is a dreamlike fit for Aaron Glenn’s culture and Tanner Engstrand’s offense, they should go get him. Perhaps that entails trading up, perhaps that entails staying put and “reaching” on a prospect who is lower-ranked by the masses.
Either way, the Jets should not automatically punt on this class simply because the consensus views it as weak. They must follow their own intuition. Quarterback is this franchise’s primary need, and if they can avoid kicking it down the road by drafting a young prospect who fits what the New York Jets are all about, they need to do it.
The same goes for the other side of the coin. If they are not enamored with anyone in this class, they should not force a move. It is a feasible path to build up the strongest football team possible and take another stab at the QB position in 2026, unpredictable as the future options may be.
Don’t rule out a surprising QB move in this year’s draft, though. The consensus may deem it unlikely, perhaps even foolish, but the Jets, like every NFL team, will draw their own conclusions independent of popular opinion. Given how gaping their hole at QB is, it should not be viewed as shocking if the Jets are drawn to make an aggressive QB move on draft weekend.
