The New York Jets will almost undoubtedly add some quarterback this offseason. But who, and how?
At this point, there is no particularly obvious avenue to explore. The current free agent options include Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, and Jameis Winston. The Jets are highly unlikely to be in a position to draft one of the top two quarterbacks, Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, which makes the first round of the draft less attractive (though still certainly possible).
That has many eyes turning toward the trade market, as unlikely as it may seem. Over the last few years, quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson (twice), and (of course) Aaron Rodgers have been moved in the offseason.
Those moves have been made for a variety of reasons, but at least a portion of the time, it was because the trading team felt the quarterback was no longer worth the money.
With that in mind, could the Jets trade for one of these quarterbacks in the offseason?
Note: it is very important to keep in mind that you cannot designate a trade as post-June 1. In order to split the cap hit over two seasons, the trade must actually be executed after June 1, which is rarely feasible for NFL teams (Brett Favre notwithstanding).
Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Kyler Murray currently has the 10th-highest contract APY among all quarterbacks ($46.1 million). However, since signing his deal in 2022, his performance has not come close to matching his pay.
In 2022, Murray ranked 26th in DVOA (per FTN Fantasy) and 28th in EPA per dropback among 35 qualified quarterbacks in 11 games before tearing his ACL in December. He then missed the first nine weeks of the 2023 season, returning to rank 24th in DVOA and 21st in EPA per dropback in eight games.
In 2024, Murray stayed healthy throughout the whole season and had a highlight performance against the Jets in a 31-6 victory. He finished the year ranked 12th in DVOA and 15th in EPA per dropback. Still, Murray ranked 20th in yards per attempt (7.1) and couldn’t seem to form chemistry with No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
Murray’s cap hit in 2025 will be $43.3 million. If the Cardinals traded him, they would take $28.6 million in dead cap with $14.6 million in savings. Given those numbers, they would likely need to view Murray as a genuine liability to part ways with him.
Meanwhile, if they wait one more season, Murray will have a far higher cap hit ($53.3 million) but will also be far easier to trade ($17.9 million/$35.2 million dead cap vs. cap savings via trade).
Murray certainly has never turned into a superstar or significantly justified the deal as he signed it at the time, but he’s still a decent starting quarterback. The Cardinals’ offense had its successes in 2024, ranking 11th in offensive DVOA (per FTN Fantasy).
Having already signed James Conner to an extension during the 2024 season, it seems far more likely that Arizona will focus heavily on their defense and try to bolster their offense with another weapon and/or offensive lineman.
Still, Murray’s name may circulate due to the perception that he’s a mid-level quarterback on a large contract. Would the Jets want him? That’s a different story, because they may also view him as a mid-level quarterback on a large contract. But The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt mentioned Murray as a possible target on a podcast appearance with Jets X-Factor’s Connor Long, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Out of nowhere, there was an X post claiming that the Steelers had inquired about trading for Trevor Lawrence. It is hard to track the credentials of the poster.
ESPN’s Michael DiRocco reported shortly thereafter that a Jaguars source said there’s “no chance” the team would trade Lawrence. However, it is interesting that DiRocco did not deny that the Steelers had inquired.
Conceptually, it makes sense that any team needing a quarterback would view Lawrence as a potential target. He currently has the second-highest contract APY among all quarterbacks ($55 million) after signing an extension in the 2024 offseason. He also has the third-most fully guaranteed money ($142 million).
Meanwhile, Lawrence struggled mightily in 2024, posting the second-worst completion percentage among 34 qualified quarterbacks (60.6%) with an 11:7 TD:INT ratio in 10 games. He also ranked 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.005) and 26th in passer rating (85.2). By most traditional and advanced metrics, Lawrence was well below average when he played.
Lawrence also struggled with injuries, playing in only 10 games and missing the final five weeks of the season due to shoulder surgery.
If the Jaguars chose to trade Lawrence, it would be similar to the Rams’ choice to unload Jared Goff back in 2021. Goff had completed two years of his extension compared to Lawrence’s one, but he was just 26 at the time of the trade, the same age as Lawrence is now.
Goff and Lawrence are both former No. 1 overall picks. However, there are two fundamental differences between Goff and Lawrence. First of all, Jacksonville just brought in an offensive coach who earned the spot after helping Baker Mayfield raise his game to another level. It seems far more likely that they’re trying to get the right coach to unlock Lawrence rather than seeking to trade him away.
Additionally, the Rams traded Goff away to find an upgrade. A starting quarterback swap doesn’t seem all that likely at this point. With Jacksonville sitting at No. 5 in the draft, they may not have an opportunity to draft a new starter, which would leave them in the lurch at quarterback.
There may be a third linchpin reason why Lawrence won’t go anywhere: his contract may be impossible to trade. Over the Cap and Spotrac differ wildly in their listings of how much it would cost the Jaguars to trade Lawrence.
According to Over the Cap, Lawrence’s dead cap hit for a regular trade (before June 1) would be $100 million, which would be an $83 million cap loss (because Lawrence’s cap hit in 2025 is $17 million).
Meanwhile, Spotrac lists a far less punitive split, with $30 million in dead cap, representing a $13 million cap loss. If Jacksonville really wanted to trade Lawrence, that would not be an unrealistic number.
Over the Cap is usually the more accurate site, and the fact that they originally listed the same numbers as Spotrac before changing their numbers seems to indicate that they learned new information about the breakdown of the deal.
Here’s the catch: if Spotrac’s numbers are correct, that split would be accurate only until the 10th day of the 2025 league year (March 22). At that point, Lawrence’s 2025 option bonus is exercised, which means it would cost the Jaguars $65 million to trade him and a loss of $48 million. Lawrence has option bonuses in 2026-28, as well, which will make him progressively more difficult to trade in each subsequent season.
As an outsider, I cannot independently verify the details of the contract. But If the Over the Cap numbers are accurate, there’s nothing to talk about. Lawrence won’t be traded this offseason.
However, if the Spotrac numbers are right, I can see why a team would seriously inquire about trading for Lawrence. The Jaguars would need to decide whether they want to start digging themselves into a deeper cap hole each year with his option bonuses or to wash their hands of him altogether without too steep a cap penalty.
That brings us to the Jets. If Jacksonville is willing to part with Lawrence, would it make sense for them to try to trade for him? It would undoubtedly cost multiple high picks to trade for him, and realistically, he has posted only half a season of high-level production (the second half of the 2022 season) in his four-year career. Still, he has his former No. 1 overall pedigree and supposedly “generational” talent.
There will undoubtedly be a sentiment around the NFL that Lawrence can still be unlocked by the right coach. The resurgence of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold in recent seasons will only bolster the belief that coaching can change Lawrence’s fortunes.
However, what signal would the Jaguars send the NFL if they chose not to try to rejuvenate Lawrence after bringing in a so-called quarterback whisperer as a head coach?
Maybe they would simply show a need to rebuild. For example, if Tennessee were not in Jacksonville’s division and Jacksonville traded Lawrence to Tennessee for the No. 1 overall pick, that would be a clear signal that they felt they needed a cheaper option to try to build around.
But in any other scenario, Jacksonville’s theoretical willingness to trade Lawrence should give pause to any team attempting to trade for him. From a Jets angle, the chief concern would be compensation. If such a scenario is possible, they should definitely inquire about it, but it’s far from a slam-dunk move.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys made a critical mistake with Dak Prescott, waiting until they had painted themselves into a corner to give him a contract extension. Therefore, Prescott has the most onerous and player-friendly contract in the NFL, and he will have an $89.9 million cap hit in 2025. Coming off a rocky age-31 season that culminated in hamstring surgery after eight games, Prescott seems like exactly the kind of quarterback a team would try to unload.
However, Prescott’s contract also makes him completely prohibitive to trade. Somehow, his cap hit would get even worse if the Cowboys traded him, as they would have $103.2 million in dead cap while losing $13.3 million in cap space.
This essentially obviates the question of whether trading for Prescott would be worthwhile (to which my answer would be no, anyway). Prescott isn’t going anywhere.
Matthew Stafford
Unlike Prescott, Matthew Stafford could be on the move this offseason. Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd reported that the Rams’ front office is tired of public criticism from Stafford’s wife and the talk surrounding Stafford. According to Cowherd, the Rams don’t want to give Stafford a new contract. However, they have been declining trade calls.
Still, Stafford’s contract isn’t really tradable right now. The Rams would save just $4.3 million with $45.3 million in dead cap. Obviously, if the Rams just wanted to get rid of Stafford, they could do this in the mold of the Broncos’ dump of Russell Wilson in the 2024 offseason. However, the Rams don’t seem to be in rebuilding mode, which would beg the question of who Stafford’s replacement would be.
From a Jets perspective, I think trading for Stafford would be foolish. Although Stafford played at a significantly higher level than Aaron Rodgers in 2024, Stafford just turned 37, and trading for him would be an all-in move in the mold of when the Jets first traded for Rodgers. It doesn’t make sense given where the Jets’ roster is right now.
Kirk Cousins
I mention Kirk Cousins as a trade target only because it was suggested recently. There is no way the Jets will trade for Cousins, as he is not worth giving up any capital for after posting an 18:16 TD:INT ratio in 2024 and looking physically washed up. However, the possibility that the Jets could sign Cousins if the Falcons release him has been gaining some steam in recent weeks.
