D.J. Reed’s days as a New York Jet are likely numbered. He made his desire to leave New York quite clear on multiple occasions over the past few months.
Barring an unlikely change of heart from Reed, the Jets will be searching for a new starting cornerback opposite Sauce Gardner.
Could they find their man in one of Aaron Glenn’s former starters?
Detroit Lions cornerback Carlton Davis is set to be one of the most accomplished defensive free agents on the market in 2025. The former second-round pick has started 88 of his 89 career games across seven seasons and ranks 18th among active players with 84 career passes defended.
After spending his first six seasons in Tampa Bay, Davis joined Glenn and the Lions on a one-year, $14.5 million pact in 2024. At 27 years old, Davis had one of his best seasons under Glenn’s leadership.
In 13 starts, Davis posted the highest overall Pro Football Focus grade of his career (74.5), which included a tied career-high in PFF’s coverage grade (72.1) and his third-best run defense grade (77.7). Among the 77 cornerbacks to play at least 600 defensive snaps, Davis was one of eight to post a run defense grade of 75+ and a coverage grade of 70+. He helped the Lions navigate countless injuries to finish seventh-best in points per game allowed (20.1).
Glenn, whose players rave about him, already has an extended history of luring his former players to join him at a new spot. During his four years in Detroit, the Lions signed quite a few players who were drafted by the Saints while Glenn was on New Orleans’ staff, including Alex Anzalone, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Marcus Davenport.
Will Davis be the next defender to follow Glenn across the country?
Let’s dive into Davis’ profile as a free agent candidate for the New York Jets.
Zone coverage excellence vs. man coverage struggles: Does it make him a fit for New York?
In 2024, Glenn’s Lions defense was notoriously man-heavy, running man coverage at a league-high 47.7% rate.
Interestingly enough, while Davis had one of his best seasons under Glenn, he was actually a poor fit in this regard. Davis performed substantially better in zone coverage than man coverage.
Compare Davis’ 2024 numbers in each coverage type (ranks out of 97 qualified CB, min. 300 total coverage snaps):
- Man coverage (211 coverage snaps): 54.0 PFF coverage grade (55th), 106.0 passer rating allowed (61st)
- Zone coverage (215 coverage snaps): 82.4 PFF coverage grade (5th), 58.6 passer rating allowed (9th)
Despite playing man coverage on the fifth-highest rate of his coverage snaps among qualified cornerbacks, it was Davis’ elite zone coverage that powered his success. In man coverage, he was below average.
When playing zone, Davis allowed 18-of-27 passing for 206 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Comparatively, in man, Davis yielded 19-of-35 passing for 333 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions (none dropped).
This continued Davis’ career-long trend of performing better in zone. Across his six seasons in Tampa Bay, Davis’ average man coverage grade per season was 59.4, compared to 66.9 in zone.
Is this good news or bad news regarding Davis’ potential fit with the Jets? Well, that depends on how the Jets balance Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks’ backgrounds to determine their defensive identity in 2025.
If the Jets replicate Glenn’s man-heaviness from 2024, Davis might not be the best fit. Yes, Davis managed to succeed in that scheme, but going forward, he might view a zone-heavy scheme as a better environment to maximize his skill set.
This could be particularly true as Davis enters his late 20s and potentially begins losing the athleticism that is crucial in man coverage. Davis, who ran a 4.53 and posted a 6.37 Relative Athletic Score at the 2018 combine, already wasn’t the best athlete coming out of Auburn seven years ago.
But if Wilks’ past tendencies dictate the Jets’ zone-man preferences in 2025, Davis could be an excellent fit.
Across his past four stops as a prominent defensive leader (HC, DC, or interim HC), Wilks’ teams had an average zone-man split of 74.3%/25.7%, while all four ranked somewhere from 11th to 3rd in zone rate. Two of his teams, the 2018 Browns and 2021 Panthers, jumped from outside of the top-25 in zone rate before his arrival to top-10 after hiring him. Zone coverage is clearly a priority for Wilks.
In a scheme that emphasizes his strengths in zone and hides his weaknesses in man, Davis could be even more productive than he was in 2024.
Reliable run defense
Under Glenn, stopping the run was a strength of Detroit’s. In terms of run defense DVOA (per FTN Fantasy), Detroit ranked first in 2023 and 10th in 2024.
The Lions’ defensive backs were a primary factor in that success. In 2024, Detroit had four DBs who posted a run defense grade above 75 at PFF. In 2023, the back end was less star-studded, but it provided a phenomenal team effort; all nine DBs to play at least 100 defensive snaps had a plus run defense grade (above 60.0).
The Jets tumbled to 20th in run defense DVOA in 2024 after placing 14th in 2023. As Robby Sabo recently broke down, you can rest assured that improving the Jets’ run defense will be a priority for Glenn in 2025. Based on the makeup of Detroit’s roster, the DBs will be a critical piece of that.
Losing Reed would hurt the Jets’ run defense on the outside, as he posted a run defense grade above 70 in each of the past two seasons. Michael Carter II is a consistent presence in the slot, but Sauce Gardner has regressed into a weak link against the run after a solid rookie year. New York needs a reliable run defender on the other side to avoid the possibility of becoming extremely susceptible on outside runs.
Davis can provide that reliability. He has posted a run defense grade of 60+ in all seven of his NFL seasons, with an average yearly mark of 70.7. In 2024, his 77.7 run defense grade placed 17th out of 92 qualified cornerbacks.
Davis was an extremely active stopper for Detroit, placing fourth at his position with a 5.1% run stop rate. The Lions relied on him to contribute much deeper in the trenches than most cornerbacks, as his average depth of tackle was 2.1 yards downfield, third-closest to the line of scrimmage among qualified cornerbacks. The two players above him, Roger McCreary and Kyler Gordon, played nearly all of their snaps either in the box or in the slot, meaning Davis (who lined up at outside corner on 84.4% of his snaps) ranked first in the category among outside corners.
At 6-foot-1 and 206 pounds with long arms (32.75 inches, 89th percentile for the position), Davis has the size and tackle radius to finish tough tackles around the line of scrimmage.
Durability
While Davis has avoided catastrophic injuries in his career, he is injury-prone and misses chunks of games on a consistent basis.
Davis has played at least 10 games in each season of his career, but he has never played more than 14 games. He has missed an average of 3.9 games per year, including multiple games in all seven of his seasons.
Over the last three seasons, Davis has missed at least four games per year. In 2024, he missed four games (plus one playoff game) with two separate injuries. Davis sat out one game with a knee injury. He later suffered a fractured jaw that was expected to sideline him for six weeks, ultimately ending his season as Detroit could not advance far enough in the playoffs for him to potentially return.
Contract
Spotrac projects Davis to have a market value of $13.8 million per year. The salary cap hub cites recent examples such as Jamel Dean (4 years, $52 million at age 26), Charvarius Ward (3 years, $40.5 million at age 26), Darius Slay (3 years, $42 million at age 32), and L’Jarius Sneed (4 years, $76.4 million at age 27).
It is worth noting that Davis netted $14.5 million on a one-year deal in 2024, and he arguably improved his stock with solid production for a successful Detroit team. With this in mind, it seems plausible that Davis could eclipse a $15 million salary.
Davis has seven seasons under his belt, but since he entered the league at 21 years old, he is still just 28, which is relatively young for a player of his experience level. It puts him on the fence of where cornerbacks tend to begin falling off. Some corners still have a few more quality years left at this stage, while some begin declining right here.
Davis is coming off one of his best seasons, which suggests he has plenty of mileage left. However, even if a player is coming off a good year, you never know when he is about to suddenly drop off a cliff. That is a concern with Davis, especially considering his injury history and the precedence for cornerbacks to decline earlier than most other positions. The Jets’ organization is no stranger to this situation; in 2019, Mike Maccagnan signed former Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson to a monster contract going into his age-28 season, and New York quickly regretted it.
With many of their young homegrown players due for extensions in the near future, the Jets might not be in the best position to sign a free agent cornerback to a lucrative multi-year deal into his 30s. However, if they can snag Davis on a contract that will not cripple them for the long term (while still paying Davis fairly for the next one or two years), he stands out as a fantastic target for New York.
Davis is familiar with Glenn, would be a stellar fit in Wilks’ zone-heavy scheme, is a reliable run defender, and has Super Bowl-winning experience that can positively impact the Jets’ younger players. As long as his contract does not hurt the Jets’ future, Davis would be an excellent piece to help Glenn start his cultural overhaul on the right foot.
