Who?
That was the first reaction of most New York Jets fans when they heard the news of Brandon Stephens joining the team on a three-year, $36 million contract with $23 million guaranteed.
A simple “Who?” is the typical response of an NFL fan when their team signs a non-star free agent. Typically, though, the fan’s next step is to use the Twitter search bar and find some flashy highlight reels and cool stats about the player, which convinces them to buy into him and tweet about how amazing of a pickup he is.
That did not happen here, though. With Stephens, once fans began digging into the player, all they found was negativity.
Baltimore Ravens fans on social media practically rejoiced when they learned of Stephens’ exit. Gauging the other fanbase’s reaction is always a good measuring stick of how you should feel when your team signs a new player, and this is the opposite of what you want to see if you’re a Jets fan.
Fans are fans, though. They are not experts on the sport of football. They react emotionally and do not take the time to fully dissect things. Perhaps Ravens fans are sending the wrong message because they do not fully understand Stephens’ game.
However, even when you do unpack Stephens’ body of work, it raises skepticism about the Jets’ decision to sign him to the contract they did. As of this writing (8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday), Stephens’ contract currently ranks 21st among cornerbacks in average annual value and 22nd in total guarantees. Yet, his body of work does not put him anywhere close to that tier of the position.
Let’s unpack Stephens’ career to highlight why this deal is a poor process by New York regardless of the outcome. Along the way, we will try to understand what they may have seen in Stephens to justify the contract.
2024
Stephens was one of the most exploited cornerbacks in the NFL last season.
Across 17 starts, Stephens allowed 65-of-96 passes in his direction to be completed (67.7%) for 806 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. It was the second-most yards allowed among cornerbacks, trailing only Alontae Taylor.
Most yards allowed among CB, 2024 (per Pro Football Focus):
- Alontae Taylor, NO: 998
- Brandon Stephens, BAL: 806
- Byron Murphy Jr., MIN: 774
- Ja’Quan McMillan, DEN: 755
- Cam Taylor-Britt, CIN: 751
Stephens’ four touchdowns allowed tied him for the 18th-most at the position, including the eighth-most among cornerbacks who also had zero interceptions.
In addition, Stephens had seven penalties. Six of those were for defensive pass interference, tying him for the fourth-most DPIs among all players.
Stephens’ 54.2 coverage grade at PFF ranked 84th out of 92 cornerbacks. His 107.4 passer rating allowed ranked 77th.
It is difficult to find any intriguing aspects of Stephens’ 2024 season. He deserves credit for his above-average run defense and tackling, as he ranked 32nd of 92 with a 70.7 run defense grade and 37th with a 12.0% missed tackle rate. However, this does little to make up for some of the worst coverage metrics in the league among starting cornerbacks.
Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta sounded very non-committal when asked about Stephens in January.
“’B-Steve’ is a great pro – an awesome attitude, a great teammate. He’d probably say he didn’t have as good a year this year, but his attitude never wavered. … He’s a free agent, so there is a lot of pressure on him in his mind. We’ll have to see what happens with him. He’s probably going to have a chance to test the market and see what his value is.”
Baltimore (one of the NFL’s most respected organizations) seemed unenthused about the idea of re-signing Stephens, and yet, the Jets went out and paid him like a top 25 corner on the first day of free agency.
No matter how you slice it, this is a questionable call by Darren Mougey and the Jets. You can throw out whatever excuse you want – the cap is rising, he has starting experience, the eye test is better – it hardly justifies paying a player substantially beyond the level of production he provided in his most recent season. The Jets committed starter money to one of the most detrimental defenders in the NFL from a season ago.
However, if we go back to Stephens’ 2023 season, we can find signs of hope.
2023
The 2023 season was Stephens’ first as a full-time starting cornerback. He began his career as a safety in 2021, starting 11 of 17 games. The Ravens moved him to cornerback in 2022, and he started four of 15 games. Stephens earned a starting cornerback spot in 2023 and started in all 16 of his appearances.
In 2023, Stephens allowed 66-of-107 passes in his direction to be completed (61.7%) for 706 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Teams went after him constantly, as the 107 targets ranked third-most at the position. However, Stephens responded well on a per-target basis. He ranked 19th-best out of 88 qualified cornerbacks with only 6.6 yards per target allowed, while his 79.4 passer rating allowed was 22nd.
Stephens was also more disciplined. He had four penalties compared to his seven in 2024. It is concerning that all four of them were for defensive pass interference, however, which gives him 10 DPIs over the last two seasons.
In addition, Stephens’ run defense and tackling remained above-average alongside his improved coverage. His 65.4 run defense grade was 39th out of 88 qualifiers while his 10.3% missed tackle rate was 27th.
Stephens’ first year as a starting cornerback was nothing spectacular. However, it was much better than his second, and it was a promising jumping-off point considering it was his first year as a full-time starter at the position. Coming off 2023, it made sense to value Stephens in the price range he winded up settling into with New York.
The problem is that he regressed immensely in 2024. If Stephens replicated his 2023 production in 2024, then his Jets contract would be fair. His 2023 season warranted a top-25 contract for cornerbacks. He was peppered with targets, but rose to the occasion, producing top-22 rankings in both yards per target and passer rating. He allowed an even touchdown-to-interception ratio and was above-average as a run defender and tackler. All of that is enough to justify the contract he eventually received.
But Stephens followed that up with one of the worst seasons in the league among cornerbacks. As a result, his body of work across his two seasons as a starting cornerback is below the level he played at in 2023. Going forward, the best bet is that Stephens is not quite as bad as he was in 2024, but not quite as good as he was in 2023. That puts him well below the caliber of a three-year, $36 million contract with $23 million guaranteed.
If Stephens can return to his 2023 form in New York, he will be worth the contract. Nonetheless, it is unwise to bet on that when it was merely his peak and did not even occur in his most recent season.
Stephens’ decline from 2023 to 2024 is all the more important in his valuation because his first two seasons also provided little of intrigue.
2021-22
Stephens’ 2023 season is the only feather in his cap that can justify the Jets’ valuation of him. If you add his first two seasons into the body of work, his value drops even lower.
As a backup cornerback in 2022, Stephens allowed 33-of-55 passing (60%) for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He yielded a 92.3 passer rating and committed a whopping six penalties despite playing just 452 defensive snaps, which equates to 13.2 penalties per 1,000 snaps.
Stephens played safety in his rookie year but struggled mightily, prompting the position change. In 2021, Stephens allowed 33-of-42 passing (78.6%) for 506 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 148.6 passer rating.
You can give Stephens credit for consistently providing above-average run defense and tackling throughout his career. He had a PFF run defense grade of at least 65 in all four of his seasons, and his career missed tackle rate is 9.7%. Neither number is groundbreaking, but he is reliably better than the average cornerback in both areas.
Coverage-wise, though, Stephens has been a liability in three of his four career seasons. And even his best season was “solid” rather than fantastic. If Stephens’ peak were higher, perhaps it would be enough to lift his body of work to a level that justifies his contract, but that is not the case. His peak season was up to par with his contract, but the rest of his career, especially his most recent season, was substantially below.
Not to mention, Stephens is going to turn 28 years old in late December. The Jets locked him up through age-30. This is not a raw prospect oozing with room to grow. Age is a particularly important factor at cornerback, where players tend to start declining earlier than most other positions.
All in all, this is a clear overpay by the Jets. Stephens has every opportunity to prove his critics wrong, but at this point in time, there is nothing of substance that can be used as evidence to justify New York’s decision to commit as much money to Stephens as they did. It is a concerning way for Darren Mougey to kick off of his first free agency period as a general manager.
