The underrated motivation behind NY Jets’ free agent strategy

Led by first-year general manager Darren Mougey, the New York Jets have employed an economical approach to free agency in 2025. The team avoided the top tier of the free agent market, focusing instead on lower-risk signings with high ceilings.

This approach makes sense for a variety of reasons. The Jets have a brand-new regime that is embarking on a multi-year quest to reshape the culture of a downtrodden franchise, which incentivizes the preservation of future cap space. The team is working through the long-term ramifications of win-now moves made by the previous regime. The roster is thin at numerous spots and will require a patient rebuild to be filled out.

Fans are familiar with most of these explanations for Mougey’s free agency strategy. However, one underrated motivation has not received much attention: compensatory draft picks.

Most of the NFL’s consistently successful franchises have mastered the compensatory pick system. Rather than splurge on a bevy of blockbuster signings at every opportunity, smart franchises carefully approach free agency with the mindset of adding fewer big-money players than they lose. This allows them to recoup compensatory draft picks, which can be used to replace exiting veterans with players who are younger and cheaper. It is a fantastic method for facilitating sustained roster health over the long haul, so long as your team excels at drafting and developing talent.

According to Over The Cap, these teams earned the most compensatory draft picks from 1995-2019:

1. Baltimore Ravens (53)
2. Green Bay Packers (43)
3. New England Patriots (40)
4. Dallas Cowboys (38)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (35)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (34)
7. Los Angeles Rams (32)
8. Seattle Seahawks (30)
9. San Francisco 49ers (29)

Generally, these franchises have been quite successful. Six of the nine won at least one Super Bowl over that span; they combined to win 14 of the 25 championships from 1995-2019.

Now, here are the bottom nine teams in compensatory draft picks over that span:

1. New Orleans Saints (9)
2. Cleveland Browns (12)
3. New York Jets (13)
4. Houston Texans (14)
5. San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (14)
6. Washington Commanders (15)
7. Carolina Panthers (16)
8. Chicago Bears (16)
9. Detroit Lions (17)

You have quite a few consistent bottom-feeders on this list, including the Jets. While the top nine teams in compensatory picks combined for 14 championships from 1995-2019, the bottom nine teams combined for just one ring (2009 Saints).

The Jets have long struggled to net compensatory picks due to their star-chasing tendencies in free agency. Mougey is positioning the franchise for a reversal in this area.

According to Over The Cap, the Jets are projected to net a fourth-round compensatory pick in 2025 based on the results of free agency thus far.

Mougey is accomplishing this by focusing on signing players who do not qualify as compensatory free agents (CFAs). For instance, tight end Stone Smartt was a restricted free agent who was not offered a tender, so he does not count. Meanwhile, most of the Jets’ other signings do not count because their salaries are too low. Since Mougey knew he would lose (or was prepared to lose) four free agents who would qualify for the formula, he is taking advantage by making sure to sign fewer CFAs than he lost.

The Jets have lost four free agents that qualify for the compensatory formula: D.J. Reed ($16M per year), Javon Kinlaw ($15M), Haason Reddick ($14M), and Morgan Moses ($8M). They have signed three compensatory free agents (CFAs): Justin Fields ($20M), Brandon Stephens ($12M), and Andre Cisco ($10M).

Since they have lost one more CFA than they have gained, the Jets project to net one compensatory draft pick. Over The Cap projects that pick to be in the fourth round, which is the second-highest round out of the five that a compensatory pick can land. This is a result of the Jets losing three CFAs for high salaries (Reed, Kinlaw, and Reddick each signed for $14 million or more).

Over The Cap only provides accumulative compensatory pick data from 1995-2019, which precedes the tenure of Mougey’s predecessor, Joe Douglas. However, a quick scan of Douglas’ tenure shows that he exacerbated the Jets’ long-standing woes in this department.

Douglas was hired by the Jets in June 2019, but he did not run a full offseason until 2020, which means the first draft affected by Douglas’ preceding free agency moves was the 2021 draft. Douglas ran the Jets’ full offseasons from 2020-24, which means the Jets’ compensatory picks from 2021-25 were influenced by Douglas.

Here are the compensatory picks netted by Douglas in his tenure:

• 2021: 0
• 2022: 0
• 2023: 0
• 2024: 3 (R6-218, R7-256, R7-257)
• 2025: 0

Douglas netted three compensatory picks over five drafts. All three came in 2024, and they were low-quality, including the final two picks in the entire draft order. Over a half-decade, he failed to net a single compensatory pick that landed in the third through fifth rounds. Mougey is already projected to land a fourth-round compensatory pick from his very first free agency period.

NFL history clearly shows that franchises who consistently rack up compensatory draft picks tend to fare significantly better than those who do not. The Jets have been on the wrong end of the spectrum for three decades. It appears that Mougey is making an effort to right the ship.