Another year, another what “could have been” for Garrett Wilson.
New York Jets fans like to believe that Wilson is one of the top receivers in the NFL. So do fans of many other teams, for that matter. After all, Wilson has put up Catch of the Year-worthy receptions in back-to-back seasons and has a flashy reputation from when he burst onto the scene as the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022.
Therefore, anything less than superstardom from Wilson is always pegged as an issue with his quarterback.
Still, it’s worth taking an under-the-hood look at Wilson’s 2024 season to try to answer a few fundamental questions.
- How good is Garrett Wilson, really?
- How much is he held back by the quarterback?
- What are the holes in his game, and can he improve them?
I performed the same exercise one season ago. A comparison with this 2024 review should provide a more complete picture of who Wilson is at this point in his career.
We will begin by reviewing Wilson’s analytical profile, followed by a film review to see whether the eye test supports the numbers.
By the numbers
Fans of Wilson love to point to his box score statistics. He put up his third consecutive 1,000-yard season, setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and touchdowns (7). That’s top-tier receiving production, right?
Not so fast. Wilson had the third-most targets in the NFL (152), which automatically gave him an edge in counting stats. As Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania correctly asserted, citing aggregate numbers without considering rates is highly flawed.
Think about it. Receiver A had 150 targets and Receiver B had 110. Is it fair to compare Receiver A’s receptions, yards, and touchdowns to Receiver B’s? Does that give us any basis for comparison?
(Incidentally, Receiver B could be Ladd McConkey — who had more receiving yards than Wilson and the same number of touchdowns on 42 fewer targets.)
Rate and efficiency statistics
When you look at Wilson’s rate statistics among 70 qualified receivers (min. 60 targets), the picture is far less rosy.
Wilson ranked 41st in yards per route run (1.69) and 59th in yards per target (7.26). Those marks were both significantly worse than his rookie year statistics (1.85 yards per route run and 7.94 yards per target) when he caught balls from Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, and Chris Streveler.
Wilson also ranked 59th in EPA per target (0.142), 55th in DVOA (per FTN Fantasy, -8.9%), and 53rd in DYAR (per FTN, 45).* He was near the bottom of the league in multiple efficiency metrics.
* Note: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Over Replacement) are two efficiency-based metrics that take into account game context and opponent.
Still, it’s worth looking at Wilson’s numbers before and after Davante Adams arrived on the scene. Did Rodgers spamming Adams with targets decrease Wilson’s production?
Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is no. Wilson actually had more yards per target once Adams arrived. His percentile rankings either stayed the same or improved in each of the five categories with Adams beside him.
- Weeks 1-6: 1.63 yards per route run (45th percentile), 6.14 yards per target (13th), -0.031 EPA per target (22nd), -20 DYAR (19th), -16.5% DVOA (25th)
- Weeks 7-18: 1.73 yards per route run (45th percentile), 8.10 yards per target (41st), 0.273 EPA per target (39th), 65 DYAR (43rd), -3.1% DVOA (30th)
Wilson was still inefficient with Adams, but not nearly to the same extent.
Those efficiency numbers (season-long and split) can be taken somewhat with a grain of salt because they are impacted tremendously by the efficiency of the offense as a whole. All three of those statistics are largely situation-dependent. Wilson has always ranked poorly in EPA, DVOA, and DYAR because the Jets’ offense is terrible.
However, that is not necessarily the case with rate statistics. There are plenty of receivers in bad offenses who are far more productive on a per-route and per-target basis. That being said, rate statistics have several of their own flaws; the question is how relevant they are to Wilson’s situation.
No. 1 WR vs. No. 2
As a player falls lower in the passing progression, his yards per route run will generally decline. The WR2 in an offense might run almost the same number of routes as the WR1, but given that he’s seeing fewer targets, he’ll usually have fewer yards per route run. That theoretically applies to Wilson considering that he played second fiddle to Davante Adams for 11 of his 17 games.
However, as we saw above, that was not the case. Wilson’s yards per route run remained roughly the same with Adams, and his yards per target increased significantly.
In other words, Wilson actually became more efficient once Adams joined the Jets to pull away some of the double coverage. Therefore, the argument that his lower target rate post-Adams caused lower per-route yardage totals is incorrect.
Depth of target
Furthermore, a receiver is constrained by how his team uses him; a lower average depth of target could lower the receiver’s yardage output on a per-catch basis.
However, even that excuse does not hold up when compared to some of the best receivers in the NFL. Case in point is Puka Nacua, who had the 10th-lowest ADOT (8.0) but had one of the highest yards per route run marks of the last decade (3.56).
Although Wilson’s 9.4 ADOT was short (19th-lowest), it was 0.4 yards longer than Ja’Marr Chase — who won the receiving Triple Crown and ranked sixth in yards per route run. In today’s NFL where screens and other quick passes are the norm, top-tier receivers can produce efficiently no matter the depth of target.
This applies also to yards per target. Wilson’s 7.26 mark ranked in the 16th percentile among receivers. It’s easy to argue that his low depth of target had something to do with it, as shorter passes naturally lead to fewer yards on a per-target basis.
However, 16 of the other 19 receivers who had an ADOT at or below Wilson’s 9.4 mark had more yards per target; only D.J. Moore, Xavier Worthy, and Wan’Dale Robinson were lower.
Catchable passes
But, the other argument is, Wilson’s targets were far more erratic than other receivers’. After all, he caught passes from one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers was below average or worse in every single accuracy metric available (completion percentage, adjusted completion percentage, completion percentage over expected, catchable pass rate, bad pass rate, on-target rate, accuracy rate, etc.) from a number of statistical outlets (Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, FTN Fantasy).
Therefore, it would seem that Wilson’s statistics would be negatively skewed compared to other receivers.
However, that’s not quite accurate, either. According to FTN, Wilson’s 72.5% catchable pass percentage ranked 32nd out of 72 qualifiers. His catchable pass rate was higher than 55.6% of qualified receivers — in other words, average.
True, players like Amon-Ra St. Brown (83%), Ja’Marr Chase (80%), Puka Nacua (77.4%), and Justin Jefferson (74.5%) had higher catchable target rates. But ultimately, it’s not as if Wilson’s targets were so wildly off-target that his statistics should be significantly adjusted because of that.
Additionally, some of Wilson’s supposedly uncatchable targets were, in fact, catchable had Wilson run the proper route. As we will see on film, especially early in the season, countless targets fell nowhere near Wilson because he did not adjust his route properly, whether to the coverage or Rodgers’ tendencies. That’s not the quarterback’s fault even though it will show up in the “uncatchable” column.
The bigger issue for Wilson was not how catchable his targets were, but how many of those catchable targets he caught. According to FTN, Wilson caught 91% of his catchable targets, ranking 38th out of 72 qualifiers (47th percentile).
Of course, being average in this area isn’t bad, but it’s just — average. For a receiver who purports to be elite, that isn’t good enough.
The film analysis will further investigate the accuracy of Wilson’s targets.
Bad offense
The other argument often thrown out in favor of Wilson is not just his quarterback play but how poor the offense has been as a whole. The Jets’ offense was undoubtedly poor this season: they ranked 21st in offensive DVOA with the same rank in passing DVOA.
However, the following receivers played in offenses with a worse passing and overall DVOA, and here are their numbers compared to Wilson’s yards per route run (1.69) and yards per target (7.26):
- CeeDee Lamb: 2.27 yards per route run, 8.18 yards per target
- Nico Collins: 2.87 yards per route run, 10.2 yards per target
- Malik Nabers: 2.17 yards per route run, 7.30 yards per target
- Calvin Ridley: 1.84 yards per route run, 9.0 yards per target
- Davante Adams: 2.04 yards per route run, 7.87 yards per target
- Adam Thielen: 2.06 yards per route run, 10.08 yards per target (in 10 games)
- Josh Downs: 2.20 yards per route run, 7.87 yards per target
It is notable that Nabers’ yards per target number is very similar to Wilson’s, showing how the compiling aspect can happen to a No. 1 receiver in a bad offense. But still, Nabers was far more efficient on a per-route basis.
Yardage efficiency is far from the best way to measure a receiver’s impact, since it ultimately still relies on raw yards. However, it’s hard to go by EPA, DVOA, DYAR, or any other efficiency-based metric that is heavily dependent on the offensive environment, making the yardage metrics the best way to compare receivers.
Think about who the quarterbacks were in some of these situations. Cooper Rush, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Joe Flacco threw to most of these other guys. C.J. Stroud might be an exception, but his season-long statistics were not as far off from Rodgers’ as you might think.
If you go back over the last few years, players like D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin have posted far superior efficiency metrics with equal or worse quarterback situations.
You can also argue that Moore’s return to earth in 2024 showcased just how bad things can get with a poor offense and quarterback situation. However, Wilson’s situation with the 2024 Jets was superior to Moore’s in both 2023 and 2024 in Chicago, with Justin Fields and Caleb Williams throwing him the football.
Contested catches
One area in which Wilson improved significantly was contested catches, at least from a statistical angle. After posting sub-35% rates in his first two seasons, he improved to 51.7% (15-for-29), which ranked 32nd among 70 qualifiers and 29th out of 56 receivers with at least 15 contested targets. In other words, he went from being at the bottom of the league to roughly average.
On film, there are many instances where Wilson failed to come up with a difficult catch. Not always were those labeled contested depending on the context. So while Wilson did a better job at catching balls in traffic than in his first two seasons, he still struggled with physicality at the catch point.
This will be explored more on film.
Yards after catch
Wilson’s most special trait was supposed to be his YAC ability. That was highlighted in his prospect profile and shone in his rookie season. However, his YAC production in 2024 was above average but certainly not elite; he averaged 4.4 YAC per reception, ranking 25th in the NFL (64th percentile).
That statistic becomes less impressive when considering that Wilson ranked 38th out of 84 qualified receivers (per NFL Next Gen Stats) with 36 YAC over expected. That means he was in the 55th percentile in creating more YAC than was readily available to him.
Ironically, this was despite Wilson’s No. 1 ranking among receivers in missed tackles forced (25). He also ranked third in missed tackles forced per reception (0.248). Although he made defenders miss routinely, he struggled to convert that into yardage.
To be completely fair to Wilson, YAC per reception can be a highly misleading statistic. Receivers who are given open space to work with on a regular basis will pile up YAC without necessarily having done much to earn it. Bill Belichick noted this in discussing the difference between yards after catch and yards after contact.
However, given the high number of missed tackles that Wilson forces and the relatively low output comparatively speaking, there does seem to be some indication that Wilson’s seeming proficiency after the catch comes in ways that do not necessarily impact his final yardage all that much.
Part of this was his inability to produce on screens. Among 20 receivers with at least 15 screen targets, Wilson ranked 19th with 4.4 yards per reception and last with 5.9 YAC per reception. Perhaps some of this was due to bad blocking, but Davante Adams managed to outdo him (6.5 yards per reception, 7.8 YAC per reception on screens).
We’ll see more of Wilson’s inability to produce YAC on the film and discuss why this happens.
Most receivers who produce at a high level with a low ADOT do so with elite YAC. Nacua, Chase, Chris Godwin, and Zay Flowers ranked in the top 10 in YAC per reception along with their low ADOT. Wilson had a below-average ADOT and somewhat above-average YAC, which does not lead to supreme efficiency.
Film
There are several ways to do a film review of a player, many of which are wholly unsatisfying.
- Show a snippet of a few plays and break them down in depth, using them to create a narrative about the player.
- Create reels of a number of plays each to highlight specific trends in the player’s performance without breaking down each play in detail.
- Create an hours-long review to get a very thorough sample of the player’s performance.
There is a further breakdown that can happen with each of these methods depending on the position of the player. For a wide receiver, a film review may focus only on plays where the receiver was targeted, or on all plays where he ran routes regardless of whether the ball came his way.
I watched every single route that Garrett Wilson ran in the entire 2024 season — targeted or not targeted. I do not have the time or the technical know-how to provide an hours-long review of Wilson’s performance; I leave that to Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett, who provides premium content unmatched anywhere else.
Jets X-Factor’s Andrew Fialkow also did weekly reviews showcasing a nice sample of plays, many of which involved Wilson.
However, I also feel that breaking down a play or two leaves this article open to accusations of cherry-picking. Anyone can choose one play and make a player look like a Hall of Famer or a practice squad player.
As some of the statistical evidence I provided above will undoubtedly be controversial, I feel that the only way to showcase Wilson’s performance is to create reels of plays showing trends in his performance.
I cannot provide a reel of all 653 routes that Wilson ran or even all 152 targets he had. In total, I clipped 151 plays of his season — some plays on which he was targeted and some on which he wasn’t.
Note that I ignored plays on which Wilson was double-covered or on which the route he was designated ran straight into the heart of the coverage (such as an in-breaking route with a hole defender). I also focused more on Wilson’s specific performance one-on-one than the coverage or concept as a whole.
Ultimately, there is no way for me to completely defend myself against the accusation of cherry-picking or framing the plays in a specific way. But I think self-honesty will require at least a careful consideration of the film evidence provided.
As Jets fans know, Wilson wears No. 5.
The good
Making good corners look bad
Wilson has a few plays on film where he made a defender look absolutely silly. The most famous is a big catch against the Dolphins’ Jalen Ramsey, who still has a reputation as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL (whether entirely true or not).
For example, a better throw on this ball would likely have been a touchdown. Adams’ deep route kept the safety occupied, giving Wilson a one-on-one with Ramsey. He torched Ramsey on the double move, slowing his route pacing to lull Ramsey to sleep before putting a subtle move into his break that knocked the cornerback completely off balance.
In general, Wilson made Ramsey look silly in the Jets’ Week 14 loss to the Dolphins. Wilson had similar success in route-running against Ramsey in 2023 but had nothing to show for it due to poor quarterback play.
This is classic Garrett Wilson: taking a hard step outside before swimming over Ramsey’s punch. After taking the ball in stride, Wilson outran Ramsey for a good chunk of YAC. Rarely did you see Wilson operate with this much space after winning one-on-one over the middle — something Mike LaFleur did a much better job scheming up in Wilson’s rookie season.
Wilson also had some success one-on-one against Christian Gonzalez when the Patriots weren’t closely doubling him. On this play, Wilson faked Gonzalez out of his shoes, causing the cornerback to fall. It looks like Gonzalez got a hand or maybe even a grab on Wilson to slow him down, perhaps causing the overthrow.
On this play, Mike Williams came open quickly on the slant with the short middle of the field wide open pre-snap, making this an easy one-read play. But with man coverage across the board, both Gonzalez (covering Wilson slot left) and the outside cornerback continued to cover well past when the ball was released.
You can see Wilson threaten Gonzalez’s blind spot inside, causing the cornerback to start to flip his hips and giving Wilson tremendous separation to the sideline. Wilson often utilizes an unorthodox double-fake to fool cornerbacks.
Here, Wilson (slot left) made Taron Johnson, one of the best slot corners in the NFL, look silly. Although Johnson lined up with heavy inside leverage, Wilson’s hop release and hard outside step froze Johnson’s feet, giving Wilson the inside and an easy first down plus some YAC.
On another one, Wilson (wide left) beat Rasul Douglas, who has been a solid cornerback for a while. He swam over Douglas’ attempted punch, then came to a stop as Douglas attempted to sprint to catch up.
Wilson struggled far more against Patrick Surtain II, but he did have a few nice reps against the Defensive Player of the Year.
Here, Wilson’s initial release froze Surtain enough to allow him to work outside, although Surtain remained in his hip pocket. Wilson intentionally leaned his route vertically into Surtain’s coverage before snapping outside to gain separation. Rodgers felt the pressure and couldn’t get the ball there.
It is extremely difficult to create separation against Surtain. That makes catching difficult balls a necessity against him.
Pre-snap, Rodgers saw the single-high safety playing so deep that there would be plenty of space to throw to Wilson outside, even with the safety shaded slightly to the field.
Here, Wilson did a great job of showing late hands and did not clue Surtain in to when the ball was coming, allowing him to snag the catch in a tight space.
Difficult catches
Wilson made some excellent contested or difficult catches this season that he likely would not have caught in previous seasons.
He made the hands-down Catch of the Year against the Houston Texans. Enough said.
Wilson also had a second one-handed catch in that game (which may not have been as impressive as it looked because he may have run the route wrong, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt).
Wilson (slot right) was at a leverage disadvantage against the cornerback but was able to freeze his feet with a hop step and a quick outside jab. He had his hands up to defeat contact (which missed) and then ran away from the cornerback, coming down with the one-handed catch and then walking in for a score.
(It looks like he was supposed to be further upfield, which would have made it impossible for the cornerback to undercut the throw and given Wilson an easy catch.)
Here, he didn’t create a ton of separation but was able to hang on to the back-shoulder ball through the cornerback’s contact.
Wilson (slot right) got caught up in the cornerback’s contact and did not initially create much separation. However, he was able to use his arm to wall off the corner and maintain a measure of distance and then adjusted to the ball well in the air, coming down with the tough diving catch through pass interference.
Defeating contact (at times)
At times, Wilson uses a throw-by effectively to counter a cornerback’s punch at the point of contact. At others, he gets caught up and creates zero space for the quarterback to throw the ball.
YAC reputation
You can see why Wilson has a reputation for YAC. He had the most missed tackles forced among receivers. He can make people miss.
Miscellaneous
On this play in Week 2, Wilson did a phenomenal job of ad-libbing his route and reacting in midair to where Rodgers threw the ball. It was a critical 3rd-and-1. This is the big-boy kind of play you expect from your WR1.
Wilson did some good work in the blind spot of the bailing cornerback, snapping off his route where the cornerback could not see him.
The negative Rodgers effect
There were also plenty of times on film where Wilson was open and Rodgers either threw to Davante Adams or just didn’t target him.
Rodgers was asked about this play and claimed that the timing was off. It’s difficult to believe that was the case. What really happened here was that Wilson (split left) wiped away the cornerback’s hand and then mossed him to the corner — and Rodgers looked right at him but inexplicably chose not to release the ball. If that pass was thrown in rhythm, it could have been a huge play or even a touchdown.
It’s inconceivable that the ambiguous pre-snap look caused Rodgers to forgo the throw since he was looking right at it post-snap. Fear of the underneath safety falling back (especially after he got caught up in play-action and had his feet tangled up for a second) was absurd given the leverage and how far past him Wilson was.
Third and short. Wilson open on the slant. Rodgers doesn’t throw it. Sounds familiar?
When a receiver is in the slot, there should be more chances to play with coverage using motion and isolate him on a linebacker. On this play, Wilson ducked his shoulder and was as wide open as a receiver can be against the two-high shell.
Even on this play, though, Wilson had to cut his route flat as Rodgers scrambled outside the pocket. His tendency to drift straight into coverage was a repeat problem. But still, he was open enough that Rodgers should have been able to identify that the safety did not come down and quickly located Wilson’s route.
Here, even if Adams was Rodgers’ first read against a man coverage look, his eyes should have snapped to Wilson (slot left) far more quickly given how covered Adams was. (If he was afraid Minkah Fitzpatrick would come down and rob on the in-breaker, he could have confirmed post-snap that that was not the case.)
Rodgers still could have thrown the ball to Wilson but got scared of the pressure and quickly dumped the ball off to Breece Hall.
Wilson didn’t run the best route — he ran his feet more than actually covering ground with his release — but he got the cornerback to freeze outside and may have had a nice YAC opportunity.
He did a great job of turning upfield and getting open against Minnesota for what would have been the go-ahead and potential game-winning touchdown (the Jets were down 23-17 and would lose by that score). Rodgers overthrew him terribly.
Then, there was an even worse one. A receiver will never be this open.
The bad
Lack of adjustment to QB and coverage
Wilson could not get on the same page with Rodgers, and a lot of it was Wilson’s fault. That seemingly disappeared as the season progressed, but on the film, it was evident that this was not because quarterback and receiver got on the same page. Rather, Rodgers stopped targeting Wilson on timing or coverage-dependent routes and directed those throws toward Davante Adams.
Matt Ryan’s words on this play at the end of the Jets’ 10-9 loss to the Broncos exemplified this issue that showed up repeatedly on film.
“Listen, you need to get on my (Aaron Rodgers’) page… There was a chance late in that game where he’s expecting Garrett Wilson to bend up the seam, two-high look, to kind of bend that thing in toward the hash. He’s expecting him to be there. His frustration after, the hands go to the helmet, you could see clear as day where the camera was right on his eyes. They’re not on the same page, right? I expect you to be at a certain spot at a certain time, forget all the rest. That’s what I need.”
Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo broke down another play the next week where Wilson did not run his route the way Rodgers expected him to. A casual viewer on TV thinks that Rodgers made a bad throw, but in reality, he threw it where Wilson should have been. (And, as an aside, Wilson had a chance to catch the ball anyway but couldn’t come up with it.)
It looks like something similar here: Rodgers saw the single-high coverage with the bailing corner and expected Wilson to bend his route inside and away from the corner. Instead, Wilson ran straight into the coverage.
Anyone who has ever studied five seconds of Aaron Rodgers film knows that he likes to throw the back-shoulder fade at the sticks. Anyone, apparently, except Garrett Wilson.
While most fans saw this as an errant throw from Rodgers, Blewett pointed out that it was actually a route that was meant to be adjusted to coverage, something Wilson did not do.
If Wilson was upset that Rodgers trusted Adams more than him, perhaps refining his own game would’ve been the way to do it rather than throwing a tantrum on the sideline and in the media.
Route-running/separation
Wilson’s route-running also needs work. The best receivers in the NFL win with technique more than just outright physical superiority. Wilson often runs his feet post-snap without actually threatening the defender, allowing him to keep pace with Wilson and creating very little separation. He frequently does not eat up ground with his release.
Watch Wilson to the bottom against Charvarius Ward’s press coverage. His false step off the ball already gave Ward an edge on the play. He then essentially got even with Ward and ran his feet, but it didn’t move Ward much, if at all.
There were multiple issues on this play. First of all, Wilson (top) began the play halfway between the numbers and the sideline; three steps off the line, he was half a yard away from the sideline, giving Rodgers no place to throw the ball had he wanted to.
This is a regular problem on Wilson’s tape: he bows his routes out to the sideline, presenting very little target area for the quarterback. In part, this is because he is unable or unwilling to use his hands and body to wall off a defender and still gain leverage against them.
Physicality/hand-fighting
Additionally, Wilson often struggles with physical coverage, whether it’s press at the line or contact during the route. He’s either not ready for the contact or doesn’t have a good enough plan to defeat it quickly.
Look at Wilson’s route. There were at least two seconds of dead time at the top of the route as Wilson fought to shake the cornerback’s contact. Rodgers’ throw was late and a bit inside, but it is not a stretch at all to say that it was late precisely because Wilson took too long to get open.
Some of these plays recall a comment Wilson made during the 2023 offseason. He admitted that Sauce Gardner got the best of him in their battles during rookie minicamp in 2022. Watching Wilson’s film now, that is unsurprising. Gardner is one of the most physical cornerbacks in the NFL, and Wilson struggles to consistently defeat contact.
Dancing for YAC
As talented as Wilson is with the ball in his hands, it just isn’t showing up on film for the second consecutive season.
For example, an elite receiver has to score a touchdown with this kind of spacing on a screen, even though the safety closed ground quickly.
A major part of this is Wilson’s incessant need to dance around in search of the big play.
There are so many opportunities for Wilson to simply run straight ahead and take the yards that are there instead of stopping his momentum and trying to get under the closest defender, allowing other defenders to rally to the ball.
Some of these might seem nitpicky, but there is a common theme: Wilson could have gained more yardage by running straight ahead (or continuing in the same direction) than by stopping and trying to dance around defenders.
Tough catches
Despite better contested catch statistics, Wilson still did not come down with many balls that a No. 1 receiver must come down with. A classic one was a non-catch in the end zone where Wilson got blasted by two defenders right after the ball got to him. Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo broke that play down.
Tied 20-20 in the same game, Wilson could not come down with this contested ball on 3rd-and-3. Although it looked like it was broken up on the TV screen, a closer look shows that the ball went through Wilson’s hands. Is this an easy catch? By no means. But do you expect your No. 1 receiver to come up with at least one of the two plays in that game? Absolutely.
Not every difficult catch is contested; therefore, contested catch statistics do not fully encapsulate a receiver’s ability to make difficult catches. This ball was not contested, but a supposedly elite receiver must come down with this catch.
Again, not contested, but he’s got to catch this ball.
This is an exact case in point. 22 seconds left, down 25-22. The Jets were trying to overcome a devastating touchdown drive by the Patriots and drive down for a game-tying field goal. A catch by Wilson could have jump-started a possible drive. Whether the defender got a hand in there or not, you need your No. 1 receiver to catch that ball.
This is a two-in-one: Wilson did not attack the ball, which allowed the defender to contest it; and then he could not hang on through contact. This has happened many times on Wilson’s film, making it look like the quarterback threw the ball too late when in reality he expected Wilson to come back to the ball.
(Compare Wilson’s attempt to come back for the ball to this shot from Blewett’s Justin Fields review, showing George Pickens coming back for the ball on a similar play, though in this case, the ball from Fields was late. And this is George Pickens, the laziest receiver in football.)
It’s not that you expect Wilson to catch every one of these balls, but there’s enough of a pattern of him not catching them that it becomes a bigger narrative.
A big reason for this is that Wilson consistently jumps for no reason and body-catches. He rarely catches a ball with his hands unless he’s trying to one-hand it. In traffic, cradling a ball to the body as opposed to bringing it in with the hands makes it easier to jar out with contact.
The ugly
Wilson has a fumbling habit that has shown up since his rookie season. He has six fumbles in three years in the NFL. The two he had in 2024 were extremely ugly. Although it seems silly to nitpick on what amounts to two plays a season, ball security is an issue for Wilson whenever he has the ball in his hands. That’s a big problem for a receiver who loves to dance and weave his way in traffic.
Two fumbles per year is a lot for a wide receiver. Excluding fumbles on muffed punts, Wilson’s six career fumbles are the most among wide receivers since 2022.
While anomalous, Wilson also could not keep his feet in bounds on two plays early in the season, one of which was about as ugly as you’ll ever see. Average NFL receivers, let alone great ones, must get their feet down in these situations. This is as bad as you’ll ever see — there were five yards for him to work with.
Ordinarily, this might amount to a brain fart, but in a review filled with a lack of attention to detail and poor fundamentals, this stands out as an issue.
Wilson’s drop that turned into an interception against the Steelers was perhaps the biggest turning point in the game. The Jets were down only 16-15 at that point, and a 19-yard reception could have gotten their drive going. Instead, Pittsburgh scored a touchdown on the next play.
Again, this is a play that happens from time to time, but these kinds of plays seem to happen too often with Wilson.
The lowdown
This article may seem to take an aggressively negative stance on Garrett Wilson. To a large extent, that’s because the inertia and the common narrative among Jets fans is that he is one of the top receivers in the NFL.
Therefore, the premise of the article is not to prove that he’s good (which most readers already believe and therefore needs little reinforcement) but to showcase that many areas of his game require significant improvement.
The idea is not that Wilson isn’t very good. It’s that he’s not great, and he’s certainly not elite.
Could he get there one day? Possibly, if he’s willing to put in the work. After all, Davante Adams had excellent seasons in Years 3 and 4 but did not truly establish himself as elite until Year 5. He also had the benefit of playing with a younger Aaron Rodgers.
However, the concerning part of Wilson’s performance is that it’s not headed on an upward trajectory. His best season remains his rookie year, and the flaws on tape appeared far more in Years 2 and 3 than in Year 1.
For Jets fans who believe that Aaron Rodgers played well in 2024, Wilson’s lack of statistical dominance should be even more concerning. For those who believe Rodgers played poorly (like I do), he still played okay enough that Wilson’s statistics shouldn’t have been so lackluster.
Wilson reportedly wants a contract extension with a value north of $30 million per year. After D.K. Metcalf received a four-year, $132 million extension ($33 million APY), Wilson will undoubtedly receive the same or more money. The question is if it will happen this offseason, and if it will happen with the Jets.
When I started writing this article before the frenzy of free agency and trades, my argument was that Wilson was not worth $30 million per year. With the insanity of the current market, that talking point is now absurd. Unfortunately, good players are getting paid like great ones, and Wilson will be along for that ride.
But ask yourself this: if the name on the jersey was not Garrett Wilson, and the color of the jersey was not green and white, would you think the receiver with the above statistics and film was the cream of the crop in the NFL? Is it all just his quarterback play?
The talent is there. That’s not the question. But the results on the field have not matched the talent. Darren Mougey may well want the year to evaluate how good Wilson is before committing to him long-term — and, unlike most Jets fans, I’m not completely opposed to the idea.
When I thought the Jets could possibly give Wilson a DeVonta Smith or Nico Collins-style deal, I was in favor of extending him. Now I believe he needs to prove that he’s more than a compiler and can actually be the focal point of a passing game.
The reality of Garrett Wilson right now is that he’s a good player at a position rife with good players. It would do well for both the Jets and their fans to remember that.
