It has been nearly two decades since the New York Jets hired a general manager who eventually took the franchise to the playoffs.
In 2006, the Jets promoted their assistant general manager and director of pro personnel, a burgeoning 37-year-old by the name of Mike Tannenbaum, to the GM chair. Across seven seasons, Tannenbaum led the Jets to three playoff appearances.
Since the ouster of Tannenbaum, the Jets have cycled through three GMs, each failing to bring New York back to the dance: John Idzik, Mike Maccagnan, and Joe Douglas.
Darren Mougey does not want to join that list.
Like Tannenbaum before him, Mougey steps into the Jets’ GM chair before his 40th birthday and after serving as an assistant GM in his previous role. Mougey also has experience as a director of pro personnel, another parallel to Tannenbaum.
If Mougey wants to join Tannenbaum as a multi-time playoff GM, he must avoid the mistakes that plagued his three predecessors. Today, we will be specifically focusing on the mistakes of Mougey’s director predecessor, Joe Douglas.
Douglas had his moments in the draft, but in the end, he had five drafts to work with, and the Jets could not muster a single season of 8+ wins under his watch. While Douglas netted some stars here and there, that is to be expected with the excessive capital he had to work with (seven top-15 draft picks). Ultimately, he left Mougey with a porous roster that includes too many holes for Mougey to fill in one offseason.
Douglas’ demise in New York began with the failure of his very first draft pick. As Mougey prepares for his own NFL draft debut, here is what he can learn from Douglas’ inaugural mishap.
Mekhi Becton over Tristan Wirfs
Mekhi Becton was selected to be the long-term anchor of Douglas’ handcrafted Jets offensive line. After a promising start, Becton’s Jets tenure was mired by injuries, off-field drama, and poor on-field performance. The Jets declined his fifth-year option and let him walk after just four years with the team.
Becton wasn’t necessarily a bad pick. The Jets desperately needed offensive tackle help, and Becton was an extremely high-upside prospect who deserved to be chosen 11th overall. He was frequently mocked to New York before the draft.
The problem with the Becton pick was not Becton himself, but the player Douglas took him over.
Becton was one of four offensive tackle prospects who were widely expected to be chosen in the top 15, joining Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills, and Tristan Wirfs. The widely held pre-draft belief was that the Jets would choose their favorite available prospect from the aforementioned quartet.
Thomas and Wills went off the board to the Giants (4th) and Browns (10th), respectively, before the Jets were on the clock. When the Jets were up, Becton and Wirfs were still on the board.
Going into the 2020 draft, Wirfs was the consensus OT1, per NFL Mock Draft Database, based on data scraped from over 70 big boards and 500 mock drafts. Becton, on the other hand, was the OT4.
The difference wasn’t large – Wirfs was the No. 7 overall prospect, Wills was No. 9, Thomas was No. 10, and Becton was No. 11. These prospects were all held in a very similar regard, and their eventual order on draft day would come down to a matter of preference. It wasn’t a reach for the Jets to take Becton.
However, considering the choice was between the consensus OT4 and the consensus OT1, it was certainly a little surprising the Jets went with Becton. He was considered the home-run swing of the group, possessing arguably the highest ceiling but also the lowest floor, which is why he landed fourth in the consensus rankings.
Wirfs, however, offered arguably the best combination of potential and reliability. His supposed ceiling may not have been as tantalizing as that of the 6-foot-7, 364-pound Becton with 5.1 speed, but Wirfs was a specimen in his own right.
While Wirfs had a more traditional frame at 6-foot-5 and 320 pounds, he displayed world-class athleticism at the combine, running a startling 4.85 in the forty (98th percentile all-time among OT) along with a 36.5-inch vertical (99th) and 121-inch broad jump (99th). His Relative Athletic Score was 9.74, marginally lower than Becton’s 9.85.
Wirfs not only matched Becton’s athletic profile, but he offered a more reliable track record of on-field production, making him appear to be less of a project entering the NFL.
In his junior year at Iowa, Wirfs earned a 91.5 overall grade via Pro Football Focus, ranking fourth-best among qualified FBS tackles. Here are the grades of the top four tackles from that 2019 season:
- Andrew Thomas, Georgia: 93.1 (3rd)
- Tristan Wirfs, Iowa: 91.5 (4th)
- Jedrick Wills, Alabama: 90.9 (6th)
- Mekhi Becton, Louisville: 83.0 (19th)
Becton was no slouch, performing at the level of a top-20 college tackle, but there was a noticeable gap between him and the other three tackles. Wirfs was simply a better football player going into the NFL (which was backed up by the film).
Not to mention, since Becton had such an atypical frame for an NFL starter, there was naturally going to be more of a development curve for him than for his more archetypal peers. The fact that he was also the least impressive collegiate performer of the four only added to the risk-factor gap between Becton and the others.
Choosing Becton over Wirfs could have been justifiable if Becton had a definitively higher ceiling, but due to Wirfs’ similarly otherworldly athletic profile, their ceilings were actually quite similar, even if Becton’s frame made him pop out more.
Following his gut to choose between similarly-graded prospects, Douglas ultimately decided to “swing for the fences” with Becton. Wirfs was chosen two picks later by Tampa Bay. Fast forward to 2025, and Wirfs is a three-time All-Pro. He is the most productive non-quarterback player from the 2020 draft class based on Approximate Value.
What can Mougey learn from this?
Again, let’s be clear: This was not a terrible decision by Douglas. He was not panned for this pick at the time, so it would not make sense to look back now and pan him. Wirfs and Becton were similarly regarded prospects. Douglas and the Jets’ brass picked the guy they felt better about, and they missed – it happens.
Nonetheless, before Becton or Wirfs ever strapped on an NFL helmet, there were signs Douglas may have made the wrong selection. The justification for choosing Becton over Wirfs was that Becton had a higher ceiling, a claim that was made based on Becton’s physical profile. Yet, Wirfs’ physical profile was just as elite, even if it was in a less flashy way than being 6-foot-7 and 364 pounds.
Hindsight is 20-20, but as we look back today, the Jets should have viewed Becton and Wirfs’ ceilings as equal. Therefore, Wirfs would be their higher-ranked prospect due to his higher floor, based on his college production and film.
Going into the 2025 draft, Mougey should try to avoid falling for supposed “potential” in the way that Douglas did. Swinging for the fences on a high-upside prospect is fine, but the ceiling and floor must be weighed equally. Even if you argue that Becton did have a higher ceiling than Wirfs, it was only slightly higher at best, while Wirfs clearly had a large advantage in the floor department. It is reckless to blindly lean towards the supposedly highest-ceiling prospect without accounting for the risk factor.
Looking ahead to the Jets’ first-round pick in 2025, it does not appear Mougey will have to make a similar decision regarding multiple prospects at the same position. For the most part, it appears New York will be choosing between a variety of prospects who play different positions.
Still, the same logic can apply. While Mougey should undoubtedly prioritize prospects with high ceilings (especially as the team builds with a long-term approach), he should not favor the higher-ceiling prospects with no questions asked. College production, film, intangibles, whether the prospect has an archetypal NFL frame – all of these factors must be weighed equally against the player’s hypothetical best-case scenario.
If not, the Jets will take a lot of swings and misses.
Douglas got a hanging curveball over the inside of the plate and could have pulled an easy grand slam over the short porch in right, but he got greedy trying to hit it out of the park for the sake of grandeur (possibly aiming to show off his “scouting chops” to kick off his GM career), and he went down swinging. Sometimes, you just have to accept the gift that is handed to you and save the boundless ambition for another time.
