Jets X-Factor’s Nick Faria took a shot at predicting the New York Jets’ 2025 schedule after last night’s official release, and now it’s my turn.
As things stand, here is how I see the Jets’ 2025 schedule playing out.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh
Aaron Rodgers or no Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers are long overdue for a down year. This team has a -80 point differential over the past four seasons, yet, by some stroke of inexplicable luck, managed to pull out a winning record in every one of those seasons. The roof will cave in at some point, and with no sign of a significant upgrade at quarterback, there is a good chance it will happen this year.
If the Steelers do not have Rodgers, they might have the worst starting quarterback in football, regardless of who wins their competition. If they do have Rodgers, they will have a below-average starter. Justin Fields, who the Steelers allowed to walk to the Jets, was a more efficient passer last season.
This will be one of the few games where the Jets are not significantly overmatched at quarterback. Couple that with the Jets having the offensive line to stifle Pittsburgh’s pass rush – the source of the tide-turning plays that allow them to win so many close games – and the Jets match up quite well.
With New York playing at home, give me the Jets in the season opener.
Win (1-0)
Week 2 vs. Buffalo
Josh Allen is a turnover machine at MetLife Stadium, coughing up the rock 12 times in six road games against the Jets. New York won its 2022 and 2023 home dates with Buffalo, while the Bills barely escaped the Meadowlands with a win in 2024.
However, I don’t think the current iteration of the Jets’ defense has the pass-rush firepower to give Allen the same headaches they did in the 2022 and 2023 victories. Allen figured out the Jets’ declining defense in 2024, posting a 127.9 passer rating to spark the Buffalo victory. Outside of Jermaine Johnson’s return, the Jets have done very little to improve their pass rush since that game.
Buffalo takes another close one.
Loss (1-1)
Week 3 at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is superb in pass protection, and if you can’t get home to Baker Mayfield, he will shred you from a clean pocket. Mayfield led the league with 36 clean-pocket touchdown passes in 2024.
This is especially true when you face him in Tampa. Mayfield led the NFL with 24 touchdown passes at home, the ninth-most in a season in NFL history.
The Jets won’t have a shot if they can’t create pressure, and as we discussed regarding the Buffalo game, I am not confident in their pass rush. To boot, with Vita Vea and Lavonte David in the middle of that Buccaneers defense, it will be difficult for the run-heavy Jets offense to establish its ground game in the first half and build an early lead.
This seems like a brutal matchup for the Jets.
Loss (1-2)
Week 4 at Miami (MNF)
The Jets’ defense struggled mightily with Mike McDaniel’s offense in the Robert Saleh era. That might continue under Aaron Glenn. His man-heavy approach is susceptible to being exposed by motion-heavy offenses.
Miami led the NFL with an 82.8% pre-snap motion rate in 2024. While the Lions did not play the Dolphins, they faced each of the other four teams ranked top-five in motion rate: the Rams, 49ers, Packers, and Bills. Detroit yielded 29.4 points per game in those contests, compared to 16.3 in their other 12 games.
Unless Tua Tagovailoa is out of the lineup, I expect the Dolphins to run circles around the Jets’ defense in Miami. The Dolphins are littered with concerns, but they have generally played well at home under McDaniel, especially early in the season.
Loss (1-3)
Week 5 vs. Dallas
Glenn made the Cowboys look silly in a 2024 blowout win, holding them to 9 points and 251 yards of offense with a healthy Dak Prescott. The Lions also held Dallas to 20 points in a 2023 meeting (the Cowboys’ season-low at home that season), although Dallas won the game.
With the Jets’ pass rush lacking depth, I think the opponent’s offensive line will strongly dictate how well New York performs each week. Against great offensive lines, the Jets’ pass rush will get locked up, and they just don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with better quarterbacks who are being allowed to rack up points from a clean pocket. But against weaker offensive lines, the Jets might be able to get enough pressure to keep the game within striking distance for a run-first, Justin Fields-led offense.
This could be one of those games. Dallas’ offensive line is a major question mark. I think the Jets will cause some problems for Prescott and give Fields a chance to take control early. The Cowboys’ defense allowed the third-most yards per rush attempt last season, and they made no significant changes to their defensive line to address this issue.
Look for Prescott to make some early under-pressure mistakes on the road, and for the Jets to dictate the flow of the game with their rushing attack.
Win (2-3)
Week 6 vs. Denver (London)
Unfortunately, the Jets will have one of their home games reduced to a neutral-site game. That will come up big, as the Jets could have used the home-field advantage for a team they do not match up well against.
Denver allowed the second-fewest yards per rush attempt last season, and 10 of their top 11 players in run stops have returned for the 2025 season. It will be tough for the Jets to get their run game going, which means Fields will have to drop back and throw against Patrick Surtain – with a thin wide receiver depth chart.
Vance Joseph’s man-heavy defense maximizes Surtain’s dominance by moving defenders around to dictate matchups. They will not sit in zone coverage and leave their corners on one side of the field, allowing their opponent to move their star receiver away from Surtain.
Joseph has multiple options to give Fields nightmares. He can either shadow Wilson with Surtain or throw double teams at Wilson and have Surtain completely erase the Jets’ lackluster No. 2 weapon (whoever that may be).
No matter how you slice it, the Broncos have answers for whatever the Jets’ offense can throw at them. This should be a rough one in London.
Loss (2-4)
Week 7 vs. Carolina
I think Bryce Young will take a big leap this year, especially behind a strong offensive line. This could be a solid offensive team in its second year under Dave Canales.
Carolina’s defense is still a work in progress, though. The Panthers made some decent additions in free agency, and Derrick Brown will return. However, after allowing a 32nd-ranked 31.4 points per game, even a large step forward would still have them as one of the NFL’s worst defenses. It will take multiple years to climb out of the hole they were in.
The run defense is particularly troubling. Carolina allowed a league-worst 5.2 yards per rush attempt in 2024. Unless they forge a night-and-day turnaround, this will still be a mediocre run defense at best. That will be a tremendous way for the Jets to seize control of a game, especially with home-field advantage.
I have the Jets getting off to a 3-1 start at MetLife Stadium.
Win (3-4)
Week 8 at Cincinnati
The Jets match up surprisingly well with the Bengals.
Glenn’s man-heavy scheme will allow the Jets’ lengthy bump-and-run corners to compete with Cincinnati’s vertical passing game down the field. Look for Sauce Gardner to give Ja’Marr Chase a tough afternoon; Brandon Stephens will be the key, whether he matches up against Chase or Tee Higgins.
Additionally, the Bengals’ offensive line is ripe for the picking. They had PFF’s 29th-ranked pass-blocking unit in 2024, and they did not do anything substantial to improve it. All five starters will return, and their most notable addition was a third-round guard.
As we mentioned earlier, teams with weaker offensive lines could be vulnerable to an upset against the Jets. New York doesn’t have the pass rush depth to cause problems for every team in the NFL, but if your line is porous, the Jets’ top stars can force you into some early mistakes, allowing their run-first offense to play from ahead and dictate the flow of the game.
Cincinnati’s defense was poor last season (25th in PPG allowed). They allocated their first two draft picks to address it, but they were dormant on the veteran market. With this game falling in Week 8, rookie defenders Shemar Stewart and Demetrius Knight Jr. might still be working through growing pains, not yet establishing themselves as upgrades for a defense that coughed up the third-most first downs in the NFL last season.
I smell an upset. What are you laughing at? I can’t just go through here and say the Jets will win every home game against a weak team and lose every road game against a good team. Not only is that unfun, but it’s unrealistic. The Jets will win games they shouldn’t and lose games they should win.
Win (4-4)
Week 9: Bye
If the Jets can get to the bye week at 4-4, the fanbase will be riding high with optimism, especially if the team is coming off a road win in Cincinnati.
With a young team scraping its way to a .500 record through the quasi-halfway point, fans will expect them to take a step forward and compete for a wild card spot over the rest of the way. That is especially true with the second half of the schedule seemingly looking lighter.
The challenge for this young team with a first-year head coach will be to keep the momentum going.
Week 10 vs. Cleveland
The Browns seem poised to be one of the worst teams in football. They have one of the most crowded quarterback rooms in the NFL, which is another way of saying they have the emptiest.
Still, they have enough talent to steal any game. Cleveland boasts a solid offensive line and a high-upside rookie running back in second-round pick Quinshon Judkins. Defensively, they have a game-wrecker in Myles Garrett, a talented CB1 in Denzel Ward, and a first-round pick in Mason Graham. Make one mistake, and any of these guys can break a game open.
This is where the Jets typically have a letdown game out of the bye week. And with a young team that is still learning how to win, I see it happening here once again.
That is not to say they will not play hard (I do not think that will ever be an issue under Glenn), but the attention to detail could be slightly lacking after a week off and with confidence running high. For a team with below-average talent at many key positions, the margin for error is thin, and just a slight step back in focus could make all the difference.
I picture the Jets committing some egregious turnovers and blunders early on, digging themselves into a hole they are not built to overcome. New York does not have the passing-game explosiveness to play catch-up, while the Jets’ potentially porous run defense could struggle to stop teams from milking the clock while leading. The Jets feel like a team that will play its best when they can build an early lead and protect it.
It will be an excellent teaching moment for Glenn to utilize.
Loss (4-5)
Week 11 at New England (TNF)
The Jets will have to shake off the Cleveland letdown quickly, as a Thursday night battle in New England awaits.
While New England’s long-term outlook is up in the air, I can see them pushing for a playoff spot in 2025. They splurged in free agency, adding a boatload of solid veteran starters to plug holes. For at least one year, they will have a more talented and experienced team than the Jets, which should fare well for them in a home prime time game.
New York lost in New England last season against a much less talented Patriots roster. Drake Maye barely played before exiting the game with an injury, but he was carving up the Jets before he left.
New York begins reeling after the bye.
Loss (4-6)
Week 12 at Baltimore
Running quarterbacks tend to fare well against man-heavy defenses. Detroit was no exception. In 2024, Glenn’s Lions allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. Back in 2023, Jackson handed the Lions a 38-6 defeat.
If the Jets are a man-heavy team this year, Jackson and the Ravens are a nightmare matchup. He will have scrambling lanes galore, and the Jets’ starting defensive linemen will get tired out in a hurry as they chase Jackson around. That will be a major problem with the Jets having poor depth on the defensive line. Even if the Jets stay close early, the Ravens will eventually pull away as Jackson wears the defense out.
Baltimore also allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt in 2024, and seven of their top eight leaders in run stops will return. So, the Jets’ offense will have to keep up through the air to have any shot, and that might be tough in a game where Jackson could bring the Ravens well over 30 points.
Not smelling an upset in this AFC North road game.
Loss (4-7)
Week 13 vs. Atlanta
Atlanta has a dominant run-blocking offensive line and a great running back. They project to be an excellent rushing team, and that will match up well against the Jets’ defense.
While New York’s defense has some upside against the pass, the outlook for the run defense is poor. As things stand, the defensive line has multiple run-stopping sieves in the starting lineup, while there are many unreliable tacklers in the secondary. Gritty offensive teams should be able to punish them for four quarters.
Atlanta is one of those teams, making them well-equipped for a late-November road game that could be chilly and/or rainy.
On the defensive side, the Falcons are hoping that a youth movement can push them forward from a 23rd-ranked finish in points allowed. They drafted four defensive players in the first four rounds, including two first-round picks.
By this point of the season, the Falcons’ young defenders may begin hitting their stride. So could second-year quarterback Michael Penix, as this would be just his 15th career start if he plays every game.
This is not a good time for the Jets to catch Atlanta. They would have had a better shot earlier in the year, with better weather and the Falcons’ young players being less seasoned. But in a cold New Jersey game against a young team that might be hitting its stride, the Jets will be vulnerable to keep their losing streak going.
Loss (4-8)
Week 14 vs. Miami
Unlike Atlanta, the Jets catch Miami at the right time. McDaniel’s Dolphins teams always crumble down the stretch, and that should continue this year as Miami has arguably its worst roster in the McDaniel era.
Look for Glenn to make adjustments from the first matchup and shut the Dolphins’ offense down. On the other side, Miami’s defense will be out of its element in a cold December road game, allowing the Jets’ offense to dominate on the ground.
I expect this to be the Jets’ largest blowout win of the year.
Win (5-8)
Week 15 at Jacksonville
Coming off the momentum of their beatdown over Miami, I see the Jets hitting a stride in December.
I think the Jaguars will win the AFC South. They have the better team. Still, the Jets feel like a scrappy group that will win some games they shouldn’t. We already gave them one of those wins over Cincinnati, and I have them snatching another one here.
When you have a great offensive line and can run the football, you are a strong candidate to win road games that you shouldn’t, especially late in the season.
Win (6-8)
Week 16 at New Orleans
After the unfortunate news of Derek Carr’s retirement, the Saints seem like a team that could struggle immensely this season. Coming off back-to-back wins, the Jets will be a confident squad that takes care of business.
Win (7-8)
Week 17 vs. New England
The Jets pull off three straight wins at the perfect time, as with two more, they can finish 9-8 and potentially make the playoffs.
It is here, though, where we realize that the Jets still have a long way to go.
New England has big-game experience across the roster, including Stefon Diggs at receiver, Morgan Moses at tackle, Carlton Davis at cornerback, Harold Landry on the edge, and Milton Williams at defensive tackle. In a pivotal January battle within the division, I see the Patriots being the more poised team, sneaking out the critical win.
Loss (7-9)
Week 18 at Buffalo
Buffalo could be resting its starters here, but with a crowded landscape of AFC elites, it seems feasible they may have to win their way into the No. 1 seed in the final week.
If that is the case, the Bills will come out inspired in the final regular season game at Highmark Stadium, reminding the Jets that they are still a few steps behind the AFC’s top contenders.
New York has lost five straight in Buffalo, getting overwhelmingly dominated across those games. Having done little this offseason to close the gap in offensive firepower, it is difficult to see that changing until next offseason at the earliest.
Loss (7-10)
Final prediction
- Week 1: W vs. PIT (1-0)
- Week 2: L vs. BUF (1-1)
- Week 3: L @ TB (1-2)
- Week 4: L @ MIA (1-3)
- Week 5: W vs. DAL (2-3)
- Week 6: L vs. DEN (2-4)
- Week 7: W vs. CAR (3-4)
- Week 8: W @ CIN (4-4)
- Week 10: L vs. CLE (4-5)
- Week 11: L @ NE (4-6)
- Week 12: L @ BAL (4-7)
- Week 13: L vs. ATL (4-8)
- Week 14: W vs. MIA (5-8)
- Week 15: W @ JAX (6-8)
- Week 16: W vs. NO (7-8)
- Week 17: L vs. NE (7-9)
- Week 18 L @ BUF (7-10)
- Home: 5-4, Road: 2-6
- AFC East: 1-5, AFC: 4-8, NFC: 3-2
I do not think the Jets will be one of the very worst teams in the NFL, but I also think their roster has too many limitations for them to seriously compete for a playoff spot. While I could envision a ceiling of 9 wins, the Jets would need exceptional close-game luck to get there. Flipping in the other direction, they could easily fall to the 4-5 win range if their close-game luck is poor.
The Jets project as a scrappy team that will compete in most games. They should even win at least a couple of games against great teams. Ultimately, though, they do not have the talent to be consistent over 17 games.
Generally speaking, unless your close-game luck is absurd (hello, Chiefs), you need to stockpile blowout wins to sustain a strong record over a 17-game season, and I do not think the Jets will be elite enough on either side of the ball to run up the score on teams. Their passing game has a firmly capped ceiling due to the quarterback and the thin receiver room, while their defensive line is too thin to cause serious problems for opponents unless their offensive line is abysmal.
Because of this, the Jets will have to fight tooth-and-nail to get most of their wins, and that should only be expected to work half of the time. In the meantime, they will probably suffer a few blowouts – their critical roster holes will make them highly vulnerable in road games against teams like Tampa Bay, Miami, Baltimore, and Buffalo. So, in my view, you’re looking at the Jets going something like 1-4 in blowouts while they split their 12 close games (6-6). Thus, 7-10.
Depending on the overall feel and quality of that 7-10 record, it could be a respectable start for the Aaron Glenn era. There are different ways to go 7-10. If the Jets beat some great teams and compete closely against others, they can enter the offseason feeling like they are only a few pieces away from returning to the playoffs. If they barely scrape by the worst teams on their schedule, get walloped by every great team, and finish with a terrible point differential, things might not feel so peachy.
It also comes down to player development. Can the Jets come out of the season with some newly developed gems who can contribute for the long haul? The answer to that question is more important than their record.
If the Jets lose games because of veterans who will be replaced in the future, they can live with that. But if the lame-duck veterans keep the team afloat while the Jets’ young homegrown players drag the team down, the Jets will be in a rough spot. The more spots they can fill in the 2026 starting lineup, the better.
All in all, Jets fans should prepare themselves for a rocky season. If the Jets outperform those expectations, it will make their success all the more enjoyable to watch.
