It always ridiculous to claim that an NFL team “must” trade for a player, because that’s out of their control. The other team might not want to shop the player (regardless of what rumors say). The player might not want to play for the prospective team. The list of variables goes on and on.
But we can always suggest that a team should at least do their due diligence on a potential trade candidate.
And in this case, we have an opportunity the New York Jets would be remiss not to explore.
Drama is brewing in Washington. According to Jordan Schultz, Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin “has grown frustrated with the team over the lack of progress on a long-term contract extension.” McLaurin recently exited Washington’s voluntary workouts.
If this saga continues sliding downhill, the Jets immediately stand out as a plausible landing spot due to their weakness at the wide receiver position. Behind Garrett Wilson, they have one of the thinnest depth charts in the NFL.
Should the Jets inquire about McLaurin? If he is legitimately available, how much should the Jets be willing to give up?
Terry McLaurin’s contract situation
McLaurin signed a three-year, $68.2 million contract extension with Washington in July 2022. He is entering the final season of that extension, during which he will have a $25.5 million cap hit for the Commanders.
With McLaurin set to turn 30 years old in September, the reigning second-team All-Pro is looking to cash in with a long-term payday before he hits the back end of his career. His frustration with Washington in this situation is understandable, considering what he has done for the franchise over his six-year career.
Terry McLaurin’s production/outlook
Finally blessed with a good starting quarterback for the first time in his NFL career, McLaurin is coming off his best season from a statistical standpoint. In 17 games, McLaurin caught 82 of 117 targets for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. He earned second-team All-Pro honors for his efforts.
With Jayden Daniels throwing him the ball, McLaurin generated the best efficiency of his career. He set personal bests in success rate (58.1%), catch rate (70.1%), and passer rating when targeted (135.3).
McLaurin was an absolute menace on contested catches. Not only did he lead the NFL with 24 contested catches, but he caught them at an incredible 70.6% rate (24 of 36).
For the first five seasons of his career, McLaurin maintained consistent production despite a carousel at quarterback, reminiscent of Garrett Wilson in New York. From 2019-23, McLaurin produced a yearly average of 76 receptions, 1,057 yards, and five touchdowns.
While the McLaurin-Wilson parallel is easy to draw, McLaurin arguably outperformed his quarterback situation to an even more significant degree than Wilson has. Despite Wilson maintaining consistent high-volume production, he has struggled to produce efficiently. That’s not entirely his fault, but McLaurin managed to produce at a high volume and do it efficiently, even with quarterbacks like Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell throwing him the ball.
For his career, Wilson is averaging only 6.9 yards per target with a 48.4% success rate. Comparatively, McLaurin averaged 8.7 yards per target with a 52.1% success rate over his first five seasons (pre-Jayden Daniels). That’s quite a big difference, and McLaurin had the same excuses available to him that are used for Wilson.
Simply put, McLaurin is a superstar receiver. It was visible through the eye test for a half decade, and once he finally got a great quarterback to maximize his production, it showed up in the stats and accolades. Only Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown received more All-Pro votes among wide receivers in 2024.
While McLaurin is pushing 30 years old, there is no reason to think he will slow down anytime soon. He is coming off his best season and continues to be one of the most physically dominant receivers at the catch point, as evidenced by his absurd contested catch performance.
Does Terry McLaurin fit with the Jets?
The Jets need all of the wide receiver talent they can get, regardless of fit. With players like Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard competing for the No. 2 spot, their depth chart is too thin to be picky.
However, when you are thinking about investing in a player of McLaurin’s caliber, it is imperative to consider his fit with the team. It would be foolish to throw a boatload of assets at a player who will not be maximized in your environment.
In this case, McLaurin is a dreamlike fit alongside Garrett Wilson. The two would complement one another perfectly, as McLaurin would cover up some of the bigger holes in Wilson’s game and vice versa.
As the team’s clear-cut WR1 for his entire career, the Jets have peppered Wilson with the vast majority of their 50-50 targets. However, it’s not something he has been adept at in the NFL (despite showing promise in college). For his career, Wilson has caught only 38.1% of his contested targets. This has hurt the Jets’ offense quite significantly, considering Wilson has received a massive total of 105 contested targets (35 per season).
McLaurin is the ideal player to assume this role from Wilson. McLaurin has a fantastic contested catch rate of 57.5% for his career, coming on an average of 30 contested targets per season. He would be an upgrade over Wilson as the Jets’ go-to guy on jump balls, and with McLaurin taking most of those targets, Wilson would be alleviated from a diet of plays that do not suit his skill set, making him a more effective player.
Going the other way, Wilson can cover up one of McLaurin’s shortcomings. For a No. 1 receiver, McLaurin is relatively non-elusive, forcing just 12 missed tackles on 161 receptions over the past two seasons. Compare that to Wilson, who forced 44 missed tackles on 196 receptions.
McLaurin was given a decent amount of designed passes in Washington, as he’s the team’s WR1, but that’s just not his game. On 11 screen targets in 2024, McLaurin gained just 31 yards.
With McLaurin assuming Wilson’s contested targets and Wilson assuming some of McLaurin’s screens, they would make each other better.
How much should the Jets give up?
Contract
The first part of this equation is the contract. If the Jets were to trade for McLaurin, they would have to extend him long-term to make the trade worthwhile.
This is not another Haason Reddick situation, where the Jets were willing to blow long-term assets on a one-year rental because they were aiming to win a Super Bowl immediately. The Jets are not aiming for a championship in 2025, so it would be a waste to lose draft resources for one year of a 30-year-old receiver in a transitional season.
The idea behind trading for McLaurin would be to establish him as a central piece of the team’s core for at least the next three seasons. So, what type of contract would make sense?
McLaurin’s age makes him a unique case. Plenty of lucrative deals have been signed by superstar wide receivers in recent years, but most of those players were 28 and under. McLaurin will be 30 this year.
Calvin Ridley provides a starting point. In 2024, entering his age-30 season, Ridley signed a four-year, $92 million deal with the Titans in free agency. The deal included $50 million in guarantees, which currently ranks 15th-highest at the position.
McLaurin, though, offers a much stronger resume than Ridley.
In August 2024, Tyreek Hill signed a revised three-year, $90 million deal with the Dolphins that included $54 million guaranteed (12th). Like Ridley, Hill was entering his age-30 season.
Hill was much better than McLaurin at the time, as he was coming off a year in which he led the league in receiving yards and earned first-team All-Pro honors.
Perhaps it is fair to expect McLuarin to net a contract that lands between Ridley ($23 million per year, 54% guaranteed) and Hill ($30 million per year, 60% guaranteed). Something like a four-year, $106 million deal with $60 million guaranteed ($27.5 million per year, 57% guaranteed) could make sense.
This would tie McLaurin with D.J. Moore for the 11th-highest salary at the position, while the total guarantees would also place 11th.
Trade
On top of that, the Jets would have to give up valuable assets for an All-Pro receiver.
A similar situation occurred earlier this offseason with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks. Pittsburgh traded for Seattle wide receiver D.K. Metcalf while also signing him to a new contract (four years, $132 million). The Steelers essentially gave up a 2025 second-round pick (No. 52 overall) for Metcalf; they also sent a seventh-rounder to Seattle in exchange for a sixth.
McLaurin and Metcalf are in a similar tier of the wide receiver position (with McLaurin arguably being better, although he is two years older). Therefore, it feels safe to assume that Washington would want at least a second-rounder if they were to part with their prized receiver.
Worth it for Jets?
We estimated that New York would have to sign McLaurin to a four-year, $106 million deal ($60 million guaranteed) and give up a second-round pick to acquire him.
Is it worth it?
The first concern is McLaurin’s age. The Jets would be signing him through his age-33 season (likely with the first realistic escape route coming after his age-31 season). McLaurin is undoubtedly worth a second-round pick and every penny if you needed him to suit up today, but will he justify the investment throughout the duration of his contract?
The next issue is New York’s current state of affairs with their own extension-hungry stars. Signing McLaurin would eat up cap space that could be used on players like Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and the receiver McLaurin would be joining forces with, Garrett Wilson. Signing McLaurin might mean the Jets would lose out on one of their own.
One would think, though, that re-signing Wilson becomes a necessity after investing in McLaurin. If the Jets traded for McLaurin only to let Wilson go, they would be back where they started, only with a much older WR1 and one fewer second-round pick to potentially use on another wide receiver. Trading for McLaurin could only be done with the idea of pairing him and Wilson as a tandem for the foreseeable future.
At that point, with Wilson extended and McLaurin eating up another lucrative long-term chunk of cap space, the Jets might have to compromise somewhere else. Is it Gardner? Is it a combination of multiple players, like Vera-Tucker, Johnson, Joe Tippmann, or Will McDonald?
Another concern is the message that would be sent to the Jets’ young stars if they traded for and extended McLaurin before paying any of their own players. You could see how that might rub some of them the wrong way.
It is worth noting, though, that the Jets’ current regime did not draft any of the Jets’ current core players, so that would alleviate some of the possible disdain that might arise as a consequence of that decision.
Ultimately, it is a complex discussion without an easy answer. This isn’t one of those “The Jets Must Trade For So-and-So” articles. If this proposition became available for the Jets, it would be a difficult quandary for Darren Mougey to navigate. The appeal is obvious, as are the concerns. Fans and media members would be split regarding whether it was the right move, and the divide is understandable.
McLaurin is an elite player at a premium position that also happens to be a major weakness for the Jets. However, he will soon be on the wrong side of 30, and the Jets would have to make a major investment to acquire him, so the risk is high.
The tiebreaker would have to be the Jets regime’s perspective on McLaurin’s fit in the scheme and culture.
If the Jets are certain they can consistently get the best out of McLaurin in their offense, even as his physical traits potentially decline in the coming years, then it would be worthwhile to pay what it takes to get his talent in the building. The Jets might not be a win-now team, but they need to add talent however possible, and McLaurin is good enough to help them compete multiple years down the line, even at his age.
If the Jets do not view him as a perfect scheme fit, McLaurin would be too at-risk of falling short of expectations in 2026-27 to be worth such a huge swing – especially with the Jets in such an early stage of the new regime’s re-tooling process. The Jets are not in a position where they need to jump on star veterans in exchange for long-term assets. Their ability to re-tool will be hampered if they hastily jump on a trade opportunity that will not provide the necessary return on investment.
So far, the Aaron Glenn-Darren Mougey regime has been measured in its team-building approach. Fans should feel comfortable that this iteration of the Jets brass will evaluate the McLaurin situation – and any similar situations in the future – with the proper balance. This regime seems level-headed enough to entertain big-ticket opportunities without crossing their line in the sand.
It will be fascinating to monitor how this situation plays out in the nation’s capitol. If things continue spiraling, do not be surprised if the Jets throw their hat into the ring. Do be surprised if they sell the farm, though.