Every sports fan has “their guys.” You know, the players you hold in a significantly higher regard than the consensus.
Just about one year ago, I listed off “my guys” on the New York Jets heading into the 2024 season. I chose three players: John Simpson, Will McDonald, and Chuck Clark.
It’s safe to say that I went 2-for-3. Simpson fulfilled my prediction of becoming a top 10-to-15 left guard in the NFL. McDonald had the double-digit sack breakout that I expected. Clark was the lone miss, as he had a forgettable season as one of the Jets’ starting safeties.
Let’s take another crack at this going into the 2025 season.
Without further ado, these are “my guys” for the Jets. The mathematic formula for this is simple: My Expectations – Public Expectations = My Guy Rating.
Josh Reynolds
Josh Reynolds won’t keep any defensive coordinators up at night. Still, the Texas A&M product is a lunch-pail player who simply shows up to work with his hard hat and gets the job done. Whatever his role will be in New York, he will execute it at an efficient level.
Take a look at Reynolds’ metrics over the past three seasons (2022-24):
- 91 receptions on 147 targets (61.9% catch rate)
- 1,281 yards (8.7 yards per target)
- 9 touchdowns (6.1% TD rate)
- 65 first downs (44.2% first down rate)
- 5 drops (5.2% drop rate)
- 17-of-30 contested catches (56.7% contested catch rate)
- 12 missed tackles forced (0.132 per reception)
- 2 interceptions when targeted (1.4% interception rate)
- 104.7 passer rating when targeted
Throwing the ball to Reynolds yields a higher passer rating than the one produced by 2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen (101.4). Sure, he doesn’t get targeted often, but he makes it count when he does.
The most appealing aspect of Reynolds’ game is his well-roundedness. Whatever aspect of the position you need Reynolds to execute, he can be counted on.
Drops? Just one every 20 receptions. Contested catches? He comes through more often than not. Elusiveness? Even there, he is slightly above average; he forced 0.132 missed tackles per reception over the last three years, while the 2024 league average for wide receivers was 0.126.
Reynolds is also a quality blocker. He has a lengthy frame at 6-foot-3, displays excellent effort, and consistently grades as a plus blocker for his position.
Reynolds is a jack of all trades at the wide receiver position. He may be a master of none, but the Jets don’t need mastery from a 30-year-old player on a one-year, $2.75 million contract. He is a steady, fundamentally sound veteran who can plug a plethora of holes in the Jets’ porous receiver room.
Not many fans are expecting much from Reynolds in 2025. He is on the wrong side of 30, signed a modest one-year deal, and is coming off an injury-plagued season with minuscule box-score production. The Jets also have multiple young receivers who fans would prefer to see overtake Reynolds on the depth chart.
For me, though, I expect Reynolds to have a strong season this year. I think he will settle in as the Jets’ No. 2 target at wide receiver and No. 4 target overall (with Mason Taylor and Breece Hall sliding between Reynolds and Garrett Wilson). On a volume of about 60 targets, look for Reynolds to generate around 500 yards and 3-4 touchdowns without many negative plays in his game.
Byron Cowart
The Jets’ interior defensive line depth is an issue due to its lack of reliability. Most of the depth chart is comprised of veteran players with little to no production in recent seasons.
Quinnen Williams himself is responsible for 79% of the career sacks accumulated by all defensive tackles on the Jets’ roster, and 68% of the career tackles for loss. Over the last three seasons, Williams’ teammates have 5.5 sacks in 150 combined games.
New York is betting on large spikes in production from the non-Williams defensive tackles. For most of those players, it is somewhat of a stretch to expect significant progress, but there is one player whose upside I believe strongly in: Byron Cowart.
Cowart is already 29 years old, but his mileage is relatively low, with only 1,026 career defensive snaps to his name across six seasons. In 2024 with the Chicago Bears, Cowart had his best season, displaying efficient playmaking in both phases.
Against the run, Cowart ranked 30th out of 145 qualified defensive tackles with an 8% run stop rate, per Pro Football Focus. As a pass rusher, he was 53rd out of 145 with a 7.7% pressure rate. He was one of only 14 players in that group with a run stop rate of at least 8% and a pressure rate of at least 7.5%.
The most appealing aspect of Cowart’s game is his run defense. While he is not the biggest defensive tackle at 300 pounds, he is very strong for his frame, as he plays with good leverage and a strong anchor. Thanks to these abilities, Cowart is capable of lining up as a nose tackle or 1-technique, which the Bears took advantage of.
As a pass rusher, Cowart shouldn’t be expected to provide any finesse, speed, or sack-finishing. However, he has a good bull rush, which he uses to create pocket cave-in. This allows him to collect pressures at a fairly consistent rate.
Leonard Taylor III is the most popular pick among fans and media to be the Jets’ breakout player on the interior, but I feel more confident in Cowart. That is not to say Taylor is incapable of having an excellent season. To me, Cowart just feels like a better fit with a more well-rounded game.
Taylor is explosive and can shoot gaps as a pass rusher, but his run defense needs a lot of work. That makes him a questionable fit in a Jets defense that already has plenty of speed but is most sorely lacking in beef up the middle. Cowart is a better option to shore up the interior run defense, and he is not a total zero as a pass rusher (which is the case with Derrick Nnadi).
I expect Cowart to rank second among Jets defensive tackles in snaps this year. While I do not expect a world-beating season, I think he will have a solid year of two-way production. I can see him providing above-average run defense along with 20-25 pressures and 2-3 sacks. This type of production would probably surprise a lot of people.
Kai Kroeger
Yes, a punter is one of my guys!
The Jets are shooting for upside at the punter position, relying on a competition between two young players who have yet to appear in an NFL game. Austin McNamara was a 2024 UDFA who is getting his second chance after losing a competition with the Bengals. Kai Kroeger is an undrafted rookie out of South Carolina.
As I broke down previously, I think both players have appealing resumes (unlike the Jets’ competitors at kicker). Either one could win the job and have a solid season.
Kroeger, though, is my guy. He is unusually appealing to me for a rookie punter prospect, and I have a hunch he will end up being a stud for New York.
A two-time All-American, Kroeger closed out his college career with his best season yet, ranking fourth among 126 FBS punters in yards per punt (47.8) and sixth in net yards per punt (43.8).
Impressively, Kroeger managed to kick for distance without out-kicking his coverage. He worked in tandem with his coverage team. In 2024, Kroeger’s returned punts yielded just 3.9 yards per return, the ninth-lowest mark in the nation. This is a critical metric for NFL punters. The league’s 2024 first-team All-Pro, Jack Fox, ranked third-best in the category.
What puts Kroeger over the top as one of “my guys” are the bonus aspects of his game. If these things translate, he could be an extremely fun player in the league.
A former JV quarterback, the Gamecocks trusted Kroeger to throw passes for them on a ton of trick plays, and he delivered with astounding consistency. At South Carolina, Kroeger completed 7-of-10 pass attempts for 205 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That doesn’t even include this dime of a throw, which was called back.
This is particularly appealing under a rebuilt Jets coaching staff that could reach deep into its bag of tricks in 2025.
Trickling down from head coach Aaron Glenn, the Jets’ new staff is heavily influenced by the Dan Campbell-led Lions, who are famous for their aggressiveness on fourth down. That extends to fake punts. Lions punter Jack Fox has thrown five pass attempts in four years under Campbell, converting four of them into first downs.
We don’t know how much of Campbell’s aggressiveness will carry over to New York. For many reasons, though, Glenn would be wise to replicate it with a Jets team that is looking to establish a new identity. It would help bring newfound confidence and boldness to an organization that has struggled to find those things for well over a decade.
At this week’s minicamp, we saw signs that the Lions’ trickery could be making its way to Florham Park. As shared in a clip from Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo, the Jets had their offensive linemen running wide receiver drills, which is noteworthy because of the Lions’ usage of offensive linemen like Dan Skipper and Penei Sewell in trick plays. If those plays are coming over to the Jets, perhaps the fake punts are, too.
It is also worth noting that Jets special teams coordinator Chris Banjo spent nearly a half-decade learning under Mike Westhoff. Banjo played two years under Westhoff in New Orleans and then coached alongside him in Denver for two years. Westhoff, the legendary special teams coach who spent 12 years with the Jets, is known for coaching his teams up to excel on fakes.
Kroeger’s reliable track record as a passer makes him an intriguing weapon on fake punts. It is only a small part of a punter’s job description; in fact, it is not even a necessary one. If you can do it, though, it is an appealing bonus, especially for a team that projects to call at least one fake punt in a big spot.
In addition, Kroeger has onside kick potential. He beautifully executed this drop-kick onside kick recovery.
Kroeger has a lot going for him. So why was he undrafted?
The main concern is his lack of hang time. Kroeger averaged 3.81 seconds of hang time in his college career, which is more than a half-second below the 2024 NFL average (4.35).
Kroeger posted a career-high hang time in 2024, but it was still only 3.95. This was good for a college punter (31st of 126), but it still well below NFL-caliber. The lowest mark for a qualified NFL punter in 2024 was 4.1.
This is a legitimate concern; hang time is critical in the NFL. If you can’t get the ball up in the air, you are giving to provide way too much time and space to the world-class athletes returning kicks at the pro level.
However, Kroeger showed the potential for dramatic improvement at the Shrine Bowl. Across four punts, he averaged a hang time of 4.40. I timed the punt seen below with a hang time of 4.87. That is a remarkable time alongside the punt’s 56-yard distance.
I think Kroeger will win the Jets’ punting job and win fans over with his electric play style, both in terms of his booming kicks and his knack for the extracurricular.
Who are your guys on the 2025 Jets?
