Who is more important to NFL teams: kickers or punters?

Kicker or punter: Which position is more important in the NFL?

Most people would not hesitate to answer with the former. In fact, nearly 87% of voters sided with kickers in this poll I published on X.

It seems like an obvious choice, right? So many NFL games are decided at the final buzzer by a kicker’s right leg. Meanwhile, punters are typically an afterthought in the outcome of a game. They rarely partake in game-deciding plays.

But is the gap actually smaller than fans think?

Kicker value vs. Punter value

Let’s try to compare kickers and punters by comparing how much value they provide to their teams over the course of a season.

This is a challenging comparison since the two positions impact the game differently. Kickers directly influence the scoreboard, while punters affect the game through yardage. We will do our best to put them on the same plane, although it is an inexact science no matter how you slice it.

We’ll start with kickers. Across 17 games, how valuable is it to have one of the best kickers in the NFL? How much does it hurt to have one of the worst?

I rated every kicker in the 2024 season based on their total “points over expected” (POE). The calculation is simple: we take the points they generated from field goals and extra points, then subtract the point total that would be generated by a league-average kicker on the same volume of attempts.

We will use Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell as an example. Here is a breakdown of Boswell’s performance compared to what he was expected to produce based on league averages.

• Boswell points breakdown:
  • 41 of 44 field goals (93.2%): 123 points
  • 35 of 35 extra points (100%): 35 points
  • 123 + 35 = 158 points scored by Boswell
• NFL average FG% was 84.03%
  • 84.03% of 44 FGA = 36.97 expected FGM = 110.91 expected points off FGM
• NFL average XP% was 95.81%
  • 95.81% of 35 XPA = 33.53 expected points off XPM
  • 33.53 + 110.91 = 144.44 expected points
• Boswell’s 158 points – 144.44 expected points = 13.56 points above expected

Boswell’s 13.56 POE led the NFL.

These were the top 10 kickers in POE:

1. Chris Boswell, PIT: 13.6
2. Chase McLaughlin, TB: 9.7
3. Cameron Dicker, LAC: 9.6
4. Wil Lutz, DEN: 9.2
5. Cam Little, JAX: 9.0
6. Nick Folk, TEN: 8.6
7. Brandon McManus, GB: 8.3
8. Jason Sanders, MIA: 6.8
9. Matthew Wright, SF/KC/TEN: 4.9
10. Jake Bates, DET: 4.7

On average, the NFL’s 10 best kickers provided their teams with a net of 8.4 points over the league-average kicker.

How do punters stack up?

Our calculation for punters is going to be much simpler. All we are going to do is take their total net punting yards and subtract the total that would be generated by a league-average punter on the same volume of attempts. That will give us their “net yards over expected” (NYOE).

We will use Houston’s Tommy Townsend as an example. Townsend had 3,384 net punting yards on 76 punts, which is 43.9 yards per attempt. The NFL average was 41.62, which equates to about 3,163 yards over 76 punts. That gives Townsend about 221 net yards over expected.

Townsend led the league in this category. Here were the top 10 punters in NYOE:

1. Tommy Townsend, HOU: 220.5
2. Logan Cooke, JAX: 217.5
3. Jack Fox, DET: 185.9
4. AJ Cole, LV: 144.4
5. Michael Dickson, SEA: 128.5
6. Blake Gillikin, ARI: 98.3
7. Ryan Rehkow: CIN: 88.9
8. Rigoberto Sanchez, IND: 65.5
9. Tress Way, WAS: 63.8
10. Braden Mann, PHI: 58.3

On average, the NFL’s 10 best punters provided their teams with a net of 127.1 yards over the league-average punter.

We should also look at the other end of the spectrum. How detrimental were the league’s worst kickers and punters?

The bottom 10 kickers in POE combined for an average of -9.2 points. The bottom 10 punters in NYOE combined for an average of -94.4 yards.

Bottom 10 Kickers (Points Over Expected):

• Dustin Hopkins, CLE: -16.2
• Jake Moody, SF: -13.3
• Greg Zuerlein, NYJ: -11.2
• Younghoe Koo, ATL: -9.6
• Justin Tucker, BAL: -9.0
• Brayden Narveson, GB/TEN: -8.6
• Evan McPherson, CIN: -6.9
• Cade York, CIN/WAS: -6.1
• Jake Elliott, PHI: -5.8
• Joey Slye, NE: -5.1

Bottom 10 Punters (Net Yards Over Expected):

• Ryan Stonehouse, TEN: -166.6
• Bradley Pinion, ATL: -154.4
• Daniel Whelan, GB: -111.0
• Matthew Hayball, NO: -91.9
• Mitch Wishnowsky, SF: -81.7
• Trenton Gill, TB: -77.9
• Jack Browning, TB: -70.2
• Jake Camarda, TB: -67.1
• Jamie Gillan, NYG: -64.0
• Thomas Morstead, NYJ: -59.4

Let’s sum it all up by looking through this lens: What is the value of having a top-10 player versus a bottom-10 player at each position?

A top-10 kicker adds 8.4 points, while a bottom-10 kicker subtracts 9.2 points. That’s a difference of about 18 points.

A top-10 punter adds about 127 yards, while a bottom-10 punter subtracts about 94 yards. That’s a difference of about 221 yards.

It comes down to this: 18 points versus 221 yards. Which carries more value?

To answer that question, we must find a way to convert yardage into a point value.

We could dive deep into metrics like EPA and whatnot to answer that question, but we’ve kept our analysis at a rudimentary level to this point, so we’ll keep that going.

Conventional wisdom suggests that one touchdown in the NFL is worth about 70 yards, since a touchback on a kickoff puts the offense at their 30-yard line. The league-average starting field position in 2024 was almost precisely at that spot (own 30.1-yard line). This confirms that offenses need to drive an average of 70 yards to score a touchdown.

If we follow the logic that one touchdown is worth 70 yards, then 221 yards is worth approximately 3.16 touchdowns. Assuming a touchdown is worth seven points, that equates to about 22 points.

We have found that there is an ~18-point difference between having a top-10 kicker and a bottom-10 kicker, compared to a ~22-point difference between having a top-10 punter and a bottom-10 punter.

Do we have an upset victory?

Punters > Kickers?

This was a surface-level way of evaluating things. Perhaps the results would come out differently if we considered contextual factors such as win probability.

Nonetheless, it goes to show that the gap between kickers and punters is, at the very least, not as wide as the poll at the top of this article suggested. The difference in cumulative point value between a top 10-punter and a bottom 10-punter was noticeably larger than the one seen at the kicker position.

Kickers are widely believed to be significantly more critical than punters because they are trusted with game-deciding plays. In contrast, punters are rarely put in situations with nearly as much weight as a clutch field goal attempt, in the sense that the result of a punt does not have consequences that are as black-and-white as the win-or-lose nature of some field goals.

However, it is a fallacy that kickers “decide” games just because they make the last play. Football games are decided based on who scored more points over 60 minutes. The first drive has just as much impact on that tally as the last drive. Game-deciding field goal attempts stick in people’s minds because it’s the last thing they see, but there were 59 minutes beforehand to determine that the game needed to come down to that kick.

One game-winning kick can feel monumental, and an ill-fated double doink can feel heartbreaking. But over the long haul, kickers ultimately pull fairly close to one another in their cumulative value. At best, they are only adding or subtracting about one point per game compared to their rivals. They put the finishing touches on a win or loss, but that is just the hood ornament on a car with numerous elements of greater importance.

Punters affect the game in a far more subtle fashion than kickers. That makes them feel less instrumental in the outcome. Still, when it is all said and done, the two positions have similar value. At worst, they are interchangeable, but it can be argued that punters make a greater difference.

An important factor in this debate is the sheer volume of punting versus field goal kicking. In 2024, the average NFL team attempted 3.8 punts per game compared to 2.0 field goals per game. That’s nearly twice as many punts.

Punters carry a heavier workload than kickers, which is a big reason why their cumulative value in NYOE came out as greater than the value of kickers in POE. The typical field goal attempt is probably slightly more valuable than the typical punt. But when you consider that punts are nearly twice as frequent, it is a huge shift in the punters’ favor regarding their overall impact on the game.

Perhaps it is an indicator that the punter-kicker debate is a team-by-team case. If your team punts often and/or does not kick many field goals, punters will take the cake. But as the gap between punts and field goal attempts narrows, the kicker begins taking precedence.

Don’t sleep on the value of punters in the NFL. It is easy to bury them in the shadow of kickers due to the gap in noticeability. When you unpack the layers of a football game, though, punters are responsible for some large chunks of hidden yardage that can add up to a game-deciding impact on the scoreboard, even if said impact is less direct than that of kickers.