The New York Jets knocked out two critical contract extensions this week. Both involve young stars selected top-10 in the 2022 draft, and both are worth over $30 million per year.
However, there is a major difference: One of these players is being paid for what they have done, while the other is being paid for what they could do.
Garrett Wilson has not produced like a top 5 wide receiver yet
Sauce Gardner’s production warrants his status as the highest-paid cornerback in football. Despite a slight dip in 2024, Gardner’s body of work over the past three seasons is arguably the best at his position. Since 2022, he has allowed the fewest touchdowns (3) and yards per cover snap (0.58) among qualified cornerbacks. He is already a two-time first-team All-Pro.
Garrett Wilson, on the other hand, has not yet reached the heights that his contract demands.
Wilson has undoubtedly been productive, racking up three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career. But the standards have changed. Wilson now has the fourth-largest contract among wide receivers in terms of total guarantees ($90 million). He has not performed to that pay grade yet.
Here are Wilson’s ranks among 77 qualified wide receivers (min. 150 targets) since 2022.
Totals:
- Targets: 3rd (469)
- Receptions: 7th (279)
- Receiving yards: 10th (3,249)
- Receiving touchdowns: 30th (14)
Per-game:
- Targets per game: 11th (9.2)
- Receptions per game: 15th (5.5)
- Receiving yards per game: 24th (63.7)
- Receiving touchdowns per game: 45th (0.27)
Efficiency:
- Yards per target: 69th (6.9)
- Target success rate: 64th (48.4%)
While Wilson has an impressive volume of receptions and yards, his touchdown total is relatively minuscule. His per-game averages also rank much lower than his totals because he benefits from playing a perfect 51 of 51 games. Of course, Wilson deserves credit for his fantastic durability, but it inflates his true per-game impact. On a per-game basis, he has not been close to a top-five performer.
The main problem is Wilson’s poor efficiency. Wilson has been peppered with the third-most targets in the NFL since he was drafted, but he hasn’t done enough with those targets on a per-play basis. This is what sets him apart from the league’s true elites.
Compare Wilson’s career production with the other wide receivers who rank top six in guaranteed money.
Among the top six wide receivers in total guarantees, Wilson ranks last by a wide margin in touchdowns, yards per target, and success rate, all despite having the second-most targets behind CeeDee Lamb. He is the only player in the group who produced under eight yards per target and delivered a successful result* on less than half of his targets.
*- At least 40% of required yards on first down, 60% on second down, or a conversion on third/fourth down.
Wilson can no longer be held to standards such as “the best young receiver in Jets history” or “one of the best young receivers in football.” His contract demands top-tier production, and Wilson hasn’t provided that just yet.
The other five wide receivers who rank top-six in guaranteed money – Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and D.J. Moore – have combined for 12 seasons with 1,200+ yards and 12 All-Pro appearances. Wilson has yet to achieve either of those feats in three career seasons.
None of this is to say that Wilson is “overpaid.” He is the latest upper-echelon young player to get paid at his position, which means he automatically gets one of the position’s top salaries. That is how things work in the world of a fast-rising salary cap. Wilson deserves the salary that he received, and the Jets should not be scorned for giving it to him.
It also isn’t to say that Wilson is incapable of playing up to his new contract. He absolutely is.
In terms of pure talent, Wilson is arguably a top-five player at his position. The potential for top-five production is there, and that’s what the Jets are paying him for: who they think he will be, not who he is.
Wilson has the ability to push his production up to a level that justifies his salary. Today, we are going to break down five potential avenues for him to take his numbers to the next level.
Without question, poor quarterback play is a major part of Wilson’s relatively underwhelming career stats.
Wilson has caught passes from eight different quarterbacks in three seasons, none of whom were league-average in performance. Even the best of those quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers, had a below-average season at age 41, putting together a long reel of plays in which he failed to find an open Wilson.
While Wilson’s numbers are ultimately his own, he needs more help from the quarterback position to hit his statistical ceiling. For multiple reasons, Justin Fields is an ideal quarterback to help Wilson unlock the full extent of his upside.
1. Fields’ WR1 favoring
Fields has long been criticized for his inability to get past his first read, which is supported by his film. This is a significant issue that the Jets need him to fix if they want to run a successful offense.
However, it’s good news for Wilson. As much as it hurts that Fields struggles past his first read, he is pretty darn good when the first read is there.
Since 2022, Fields has thrown for 9.5 yards per attempt and a 107.3 passer rating when targeting his team’s top wide receiver. This data sample is comprised of passes to Darnell Mooney in 2022, D.J. Moore in 2023, and George Pickens in 2024.
Compare those numbers to Wilson’s career averages: 6.9 yards per target and an 82.4 passer rating when targeted. Wilson is due for a huge uptick in per-target efficiency if Fields maintains his numbers when targeting WR1s.
The most exciting thing for Wilson is that Fields accumulated his best WR1 numbers when throwing to Moore in 2023. Of Fields’ last three WR1s, Moore is by far the closest to Wilson in terms of talent and skill set.
Moore’s first five NFL seasons went similarly to Wilson’s. His talent was obvious, but his numbers were held back by poor quarterbacking in Carolina. While the Panthers loaded him with targets, leading to consistent 1,000-yard seasons, Moore couldn’t reach the 1,200-yard hump or surpass seven touchdowns – identical ceilings to Wilson.
Upon joining Fields and the Bears in 2023, Moore had his breakout season in terms of both totals and efficiency. He caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, generating 10.0 yards per target and a 59.6% success rate.
When targeting Moore in 2023, Fields completed 71.3% of his passes for eight touchdowns, one interception, 11.0 yards per attempt, and a 129.5 passer rating.
It remains to be seen how Fields will fare when throwing to the rest of the Jets’ offense, but the ceiling for him and his college teammate is extremely high.
2. Fields’ deep passing
On top of his overall success when targeting WR1s, Fields is an exciting addition for Wilson due to his deep passing.
Wilson has the speed and vertical separation skills to be a dominant deep threat. He just hasn’t had a quarterback who can hit him on those throws when he’s open. Between Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Aaron Rodgers, Wilson has been hung out to dry on too many potential deep touchdowns.
For his career, Wilson has caught just 19 deep passes in 51 games. That’s about six deep receptions per year, or one deep reception every 2.7 games. Wilson is far too talented for that.
It is not due to a lack of targets. Wilson has seen 65 deep passes thrown his way. The problem is that he only caught 29.2% of them. This is despite never being credited for a drop on a deep target.
Enter Fields.
Fields’ short-to-intermediate game needs plenty of work, but his deep passing is a proven weapon. On deep passes in 2023, Fields had an adjusted completion percentage (which counts drops as completions) of 53.8%, ranking sixth-best among quarterbacks who attempted at least 30 deep passes.
D.J. Moore benefited tremendously from Fields’ arm. In 2023, Moore caught 16 of 32 deep targets for 482 yards and five touchdowns.
If Wilson can match those numbers, it could be enough on its own to take his overall game to a new level. In 2024, Wilson caught 7 of 20 deep targets for 201 yards and two touchdowns. By rising to Moore’s level, Wilson could add over 280 yards and three touchdowns solely off of deep passes. That would have taken him to 10 touchdowns and nearly 1,400 yards last season.
That is purely a hypothetical projection, but it illustrates how much meat has been left on the bone in Wilson’s downfield game. If Fields can replicate his deep passing from the 2023 season, it should add a bevy of newfound yards and touchdowns to Wilson’s name.
Individual avenues
Yes, poor quarterback play has greatly diminished Wilson’s numbers. But it doesn’t explain everything. At the end of the day, Wilson has to own his numbers.
The quarterback excuse does not work when you have Wilson’s talent. Each year, we see plenty of great wide receivers who manage to be efficient and rack up touchdowns despite poor quarterback play.
In 2024, rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. posted 87 receptions, 1,282 yards, 10 touchdowns, 9.6 yards per target, and a 55.6% success rate despite catching passes from Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence (yes, Lawrence should be considered a liability at quarterback until proven otherwise).
Commanders veteran Terry McLaurin had a breakout year in 2024 after finally getting a great quarterback in Jayden Daniels, but McLaurin was already efficient while dealing with Washington’s carousel of poor quarterbacks. From 2020-23, McLaurin averaged 8.5 yards per target with a 51.2% success rate.
D.J. Moore owns career averages of 8.4 yards per target and a 51.7% success rate despite dealing with a new subpar quarterback almost every year of his career with the Panthers and Bears.
The best single-season wide receiver in Jets history, Brandon Marshall, posted 15 touchdowns, 8.7 yards per target, and a 57.2% success rate in 2015 with Ryan Fitzpatrick of all people.
No matter how Justin Fields performs (or any other quarterback who takes the reins over Wilson’s next six years in New York), Wilson needs to seize control of his own destiny. He must ensure his efficiency is strong regardless of what happens around him.
To do that, Wilson must improve three particular areas of his game that are within his control.
3. Be more efficient with the ball in his hands
Wilson’s raw elusiveness is about as good as it gets at the wide receiver position. One of the game’s most explosive cutters, Wilson makes defenders miss more often than anybody.
The problem is that he doesn’t convert those missed tackles into meaningful impact.
In 2024, Wilson led wide receivers with 25 missed tackles forced, per Pro Football Focus. However, he ranked 49th among wide receivers with 39 yards after catch over expected (YACOE), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
With 39 YACOE on 101 receptions, Wilson generated just 0.4 YACOE per reception. Essentially, for all of those missed tackles he forced, it only amounted to about half an extra yard on each catch.
This disparity highlights the inefficiency of Wilson’s movements with the ball in his hands. Wilson does plenty of running around after the catch, but it often isn’t toward the other team’s end zone. He is wasting steps.
To fix this, Wilson needs to adjust his mindset as an open-field playmaker. Too often, he finds himself running east-west instead of north-south. It allows him to find more defenders to juke out, but costs him yardage, which is the only thing that actually matters.
Wilson has the ceiling to be one of the best YAC players in the NFL. Even in these clips, you can see the sheer quickness of his movements. But he needs to play smarter to maximize his physical abilities.
It’s great that Wilson can juke out defenders at will, but he often does it in situations where it doesn’t make sense. Sometimes, he just needs to put his head down and get north-south.
Efficient YAC production is an essential part of being an elite wide receiver in the NFL. In 2024, each of the league’s top three wide receivers in YACOE were players who are now Wilson’s peers on the wage scale: Ja’Marr Chase (294 YACOE), CeeDee Lamb (232), and A.J. Brown (158).
Wilson forced more missed tackles than each of those players. Yet, they each generated significantly more YAC above expected. Those players have mastered the art of translating their skills into production, which Wilson is still learning how to do.
This is something that dates back to Wilson’s first NFL game.
On this catch near the line of scrimmage, Wilson makes something out of nothing by juking out two defenders. After that, though, Wilson has a wide-open lane to put his head down and dive forward for the third-and-10 conversion. Instead, Wilson makes one juke too many, and it costs him the first down. It’s a nitpick on a mostly fantastic play, but it encapsulates Wilson’s unrelenting urge to seek out defenders instead of getting vertical.
If Wilson can refine his open-field mindset, there is a ton of untapped yardage waiting to be unlocked. His speed and quickness bestow him with unlimited YAC potential. The next step is training himself to break free of his urge to dance around with the ball.
Find the hole, cut downfield, dart forward, and trust yourself to instinctively make someone miss when it’s necessary. That should be the mindset.
4. Attack the ball to secure more contested catches
According to PFF, Wilson has secured just 40 of 105 contested targets in his career, a poor 38.1% rate.
To Wilson’s credit, he reached a career-high 51.7% in 2024, grabbing 15 of 29 contested passes. Still, Wilson is capable of better than that.
Just like his YAC game, Wilson has the talent to be one of the league’s best receivers in this facet. Wilson has recorded multiple catches of peak difficulty. He had a catch-of-the-year candidate in each of the past two seasons. There is no catch he cannot make, but he needs to be more consistent.
For as many stellar grabs as he makes, Wilson comes up small just as often. Those plays don’t get remembered as much as the highlights, but those are the missed opportunities that add up to ultimately give him his underwhelming overall numbers.
A consistent theme on Wilson’s failed contested catches is that he often tries to catch the ball with his body. Wilson allows the ball to come to him instead of attacking it, which gives defenders an opportunity to contest the ball. If Wilson were more consistent at stabbing the ball away from his body, he’d give defenders fewer chances to disrupt the catch process, and his contested catch rate would improve.
We know full well that Wilson has some of the most skillful hands in the game – look no further than his acrobatic touchdowns against the Bills and Texans. So, he’s severely limiting himself by not using those hands more often.
Wilson has to be more aggressive at coming back to the ball and catching it with his arms extended.
5. Be more detailed on routes
In an ESPN poll of NFL scouts, coaches, and executives, Wilson was ranked as the league’s 10th-best wide receiver entering the 2025 season. Just as we have done here today, evaluators praised his untapped potential.
“Vast potential, [but he’s] not close to what he could be,” said one AFC scout of Wilson.
There was a consistent reason presented for why Wilson has not hit his ceiling yet: his “freelancing” tendencies.
One AFC executive labeled Wilson as a “freelancer” as a route runner. An NFL receivers coach criticized a “lack of detail in his routes.” The same AFC scout who praised Wilson’s potential said that the Ohio State product “does his own thing on the field.”
The film backs up these criticisms. Aligning with many other aspects of his game, Wilson’s physical capabilities are obvious, but his execution is held back by a lack of attention to detail. While his cuts out of breaks are as sharp as anybody in football, there are little things Wilson must do better to make himself a more presentable target for his quarterback.
On this critical late-game play, Wilson (outside right) should be open for a big catch up the seam, but he doesn’t read the two-high coverage and bend inside toward the soft spot of the zone. Matt Ryan criticized Wilson for this on the CBS post-game show.
Here is a similar play where Wilson (slot right) drifts downfield into the hands of the coverage instead of bending inside toward the soft spot.
This next play is one of the best examples of the “freelance” criticisms. In an end-of-half situation, the Jets need a quick completion to get out of bounds and stop the clock, but Wilson (outside left) takes his route too far downfield and throws an extra move to boot. With all of this wasted motion and time, Wilson is late to the spot as Rodgers tries to lead him to the sideline.
Justin Fields is a quarterback who needs as much help as he can get in the passing game. He is an elite athlete with tremendous arm strength, but when it comes to the nuances of being an NFL pocket passer, Fields has a long way to go. If his top receiver lacks attention to detail on his routes, it will lead to disastrous results for the Jets. Wilson has to make Fields’ life easier.
When you look at the NFL’s best wide receivers, one of the most common traits is the level of comfort they provide for their quarterback. You want the type of guy who, in a gotta-have-it situation, the quarterback trusts that he can throw with anticipation to the spot where he expects his guy to be – and most of the time, he’s there.
Justin Jefferson is phenomenal in this area. Jefferson has all of the physical tools in the world, but it is the precision of his route running that makes him so unstoppable. He wastes no motion in his routes, making him extremely trustworthy for the quarterback. When Jefferson runs a 10-yard out route, the quarterback knows exactly where he will be and when he will be there.
This is where Wilson is the furthest behind his peers at the top of the wide receiver position. He must refine the timing and technique of his routes to become the type of receiver who consistently hits the intended spot at the moment his quarterback expects him to. At the moment, Wilson is unpredictable as a route runner, making it difficult for his quarterbacks to get on the same page with him.
Wilson has everything he needs to succeed
The Jets took a minor gamble by signing Wilson to the contract that they did. In the long run, if Wilson continues to produce at the same level he did from 2022-24, it won’t be an ideal allocation of resources.
This is not to say that Wilson’s contract would crush the team – Wilson’s high floor should prevent him from becoming anything close to a catastrophic investment – but it wouldn’t be the type of impact you expect to get from a player earning over $32 million per year. That type of money should deliver elite-level impact.
Wilson has elite-level talent, but he has not yet translated it to elite-level production. Fortunately for him and the Jets, Wilson has everything he needs to play up to his contract going forward.
Even if he is a limited all-around player who probably will not be the Jets’ franchise quarterback, Justin Fields’ skill set is ideal for unlocking Wilson’s game in the short term. Their established chemistry is a nice bonus.
As for Wilson himself, he has every tool he needs to become one of the best wide receivers in football. It’s all about finding ways to be more detailed so he can make the most out of each skill he brings to the table. If he can do that, his ceiling is limitless.
