The New York Jets are built to run the football.

While the team never openly admitted its plans to operate a run-first offense during the offseason, it was easy to connect the dots based on New York’s personnel. The Jets’ roster construction and coaching hires sent the message loud and clear.

Through two games of the 2025 season, the Jets have affirmed their intention to be a run-first team. An astounding 55.1% of their offensive plays were rush attempts, second in the league to only the Philadelphia Eagles (60%). That’s despite New York trailing by multiple scores for most of last week’s game against Buffalo.

In Week 1, the Jets showed the upside of their old-school offensive identity. It did not culminate in a win, but they did score 32 points.

Eventually, though, the Jets will have to face a harsh reality: You need to air it out to win games in the modern NFL.

That will be truer than ever when the Jets head out to Tampa Bay as seven-point road underdogs.

Tampa Bay yields opportunity for Jets to uncork passing game

The Buccaneers are built to beat the Jets at their own game. They are formidable in the trenches and more than prepared to go toe-to-toe in a ground-and-pound affair if that’s how New York wants to play.

Through two weeks, Tampa Bay ranks fifth-best in both yards per carry (5.1) and yards per carry allowed (3.3). The Bucs’ +1.8 YPC margin ranks second-best in the NFL, trailing only the Jaguars (+1.9).

So far, the Jets have not been nearly as successful as Tampa Bay at winning the battle of run games. They’ve been decent, but not good enough to treat their advantage in the run game as their calling card. New York ranks 15th-best with a +0.3 YPC margin, ranking 11th in offensive YPC (4.7) and 21st in defensive YPC (4.4).

If the Jets try to slog their way to a grimy victory over the Buccaneers, chances are they will have a rough time. That’s especially true with their second-leading rusher, quarterback Justin Fields, set to miss the game with a concussion.

But it presents a golden opportunity for the Jets to finally embrace the modern NFL.

While the Buccaneers have been elite at outrushing their opponents, they have struggled mightily in the aerial department. Tampa Bay ranks 31st in net yards per pass attempt (4.7) and 26th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (6.7). The team’s -2.0 margin in NY/A ranks 26th.

This is where the Jets must strike to win on Sunday.

For all of the trouble they’ve had with their pass offense and pass defense, the Jets have still fared better than the Buccaneers when it comes to net passing efficiency, ranking 24th with a NY/A margin of -1.0. Both the offense (5.4) and defense (6.4) rank 22nd in net yards per attempt.

With Tyrod Taylor taking over at quarterback, the Jets have a chance to build on this advantage.

Going from Fields to Taylor will undoubtedly downgrade the Jets’ rushing capabilities (mainly because the read-option threat will be greatly mitigated), but the Jets were already significantly worse than Tampa Bay at winning the ground game with Fields under center. It’s in the passing game where New York can gain an edge over Tampa Bay, and in that department, Taylor is an upgrade over Fields.

Coming off a performance in which he went 3-of-11 for 27 yards, Fields is still prone to abysmal accuracy and decision-making as a passer. Taylor may not have the same talent and ceiling as Fields, but the 36-year-old veteran is a much steadier hand from the pocket. It was glaringly evident throughout training camp.

This week offers the perfect stage for Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand to flex his muscles in the pass game. After all, Engstrand spent three years as the pass game coordinator for a Detroit Lions team that led the NFL in passing yards (13,156) over his tenure in the role. Taylor is a better choice than Fields to execute the pure dropback passing concepts that worked so well for Detroit.

To summarize:

  • The Jets’ new starting QB is less threatening in the run game, but steadier as a passer
  • The Jets are a facing team that excels in the run game on both sides, but struggles in the pass game on both sides

It all culminates in a clear formula: Taking the lid off the pot.

For better or worse, Engstrand must let Taylor cook in Tampa Bay. Now is the time to see what this passing attack is capable of.

Trying to turn the game into an aerial shootout between Taylor and Baker Mayfield is the Jets’ best bet to pull out a victory. It puts pressure on the weakest aspects of Tampa Bay, and it properly manages the pros and cons of the switch from Taylor to Fields.

Additionally, the Jets would maximize their odds of winning the turnover battle. As mentioned, Taylor is one of the most interception-averse quarterbacks of all time. Mayfield, though, led the NFL with 16 interceptions last season. He had three multi-interception games at home, with the Bucs losing two of those games. Make this a shootout, and there is a good chance Mayfield will commit one more killer mistake than Taylor.

With no Fields, the Jets are unequipped to go run-heavy on the road – not against a Todd Bowles run defense with Vita Vea in the middle. Bowles’ scheme is predicated upon stopping the run; his teams have achieved top-10 finishes in YPC allowed in six of his nine seasons as a coordinator or head coach.

Not to mention, the Jets can’t afford to replicate what happened last week, when they played right into the hands of a Bills team that sold out to stop the run. Given New York’s extremely run-heavy tendencies, Tampa Bay will be playing the run just as aggressively as Buffalo, so Engstrand must respond with a changeup.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets don’t want to find themselves in a time-of-possession battle against the Bucs’ run game, which has the second-highest success rate in the NFL at 48.9%.

Even without Tristan Wirfs on the field, Tampa Bay has a formidable offensive line that would gladly partake in an old-school slugfest. The Jets’ offense must pressure the Bucs into calling lots of passes for Mayfield, stockpiling chances for the secondary to strike with its first interception(s) of the season.

Let Tyrod cook.