Do the New York Jets’ coaches deserve to be on the hot seat?
That’s a difficult question to answer, because we can never say with certainty how “good” an NFL coach is doing. He’s not out there catching passes and covering receivers. We never truly know how much of a team’s performance, good or bad, should be attributed to the coaching staff.
One decent method for evaluating coaches is to compare their team’s performance to its expectations. By accounting for the roster’s perceived talent level, we can estimate how much value the coaching staff is adding or subtracting.
There are many ways to do this, but one of the better tools is a team’s performance against the spread.
Jets rank among the top underperformers entering Carolina matchup
Through six games, the Jets are 3-3 against the spread. However, they have collectively performed well below the already low expectations placed upon them. Despite being underdogs in all six of their games, the Jets have an average ATS plus-minus of -4.0, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
Essentially, the Jets are performing four points worse than expected per game, and that’s despite already being expected to lose every game.
As bad as that is, it arguably belies the Jets’ true degree of ineptitude, as they have been masterful at stat-padding in garbage time.
The bar was low for Aaron Glenn’s team entering the season, yet they are still managing to fall well beneath it. That’s not a promising sign for Glenn and his staff.
It’s possible for head coaches to build successful careers after starting 0-6, but the odds are slim. Since 1980, just four of the 17 coaches to start 0-6 with a new team went on to lead that organization to the playoffs (26%).
If Glenn is going to join that group, it is imperative that he starts leading the Jets to meet their expectations, no matter how low they might be.
The importance of this is displayed by Dan Campbell and Kyle Shanahan, two of the most recent coaches to lead a franchise to the playoffs after starting 0-6.
Compare the ATS performances of the 2017 Niners (Shanahan), 2021 Lions (Campbell), and 2025 Jets:
- 2017 Niners: 9-7 ATS, +1.1 ATS plus-minus (10th)
- 2021 Lions: 11-6 ATS, -0.1 ATS plus-minus (18th)
- 2025 Jets: 3-3 ATS, -4.0 ATS plus-minus (26th)
As of right now, Glenn’s team is performing much further below expectations than Campbell and Shanahan’s teams did in their debut seasons. Based on ATS plus-minus, Campbell’s team played exactly up to expectations, while Shanahan’s team slightly exceeded them.
Neither coach, though, was at that level through Week 6. At this point in their respective debut seasons, Campbell and Shanahan’s teams looked just as bad compared to expectations as Glenn’s. But each coach led their team to play well above expectations over the rest of the season, which elevated their season-long ATS numbers to respectable levels.
Glenn must strive for the same goal.
That doesn’t necessarily entail winning 10 of the next 11 games. This Jets roster is not good, and it should not be expected to win many games moving forward. Remember, the idea is to evaluate Glenn by comparing the Jets’ performance to their expectations.
So far, the Jets have played well below their paltry expectations. Glenn has about two-thirds of the season to show that he can get his team to perform at an acceptable level.
He has a great opportunity to get started against the Carolina Panthers this week.
Because of how Carolina matches up with New York, Sunday’s game will provide Glenn and the Jets’ coaching staff with a unique chance to prove they can get the team to perform above expectations.
Jets’ coaches can flex their value against Carolina
Beating the Carolina Panthers will be a difficult challenge for New York.
Carolina has won three of its past four games, including last week’s win over a Dallas Cowboys team that shellacked New York the week prior. The Panthers also beat the Miami Dolphins, another team that took down the Jets.
Meanwhile, the Jets will be forced to work around perhaps the most crushing injury the team could deal with. Garrett Wilson, who is responsible for 64% of the team’s targets to wide receivers, is expected to miss the game. That creates an incredibly daunting situation for a passing offense that had -10 yards with Wilson on the field last week.
The cherry on top of this budding disaster sundae is that Carolina’s defense matches up tremendously against the Jets’ offense. Over the last four weeks, the Panthers rank fifth-best against the run based on EPA per attempt. That spells trouble for an already run-heavy Jets offense that could become even more one-dimensional with Wilson sidelined.
The Panthers are just 23rd against the pass over the last four weeks (in terms of EPA per attempt), but the Jets don’t have the weapons to punish that weakness. It will force the Jets to play into the hands of Carolina’s thriving run defense.
On paper, this seems like an insurmountable matchup for the Jets’ offense.
These are the situations where great coaches flex their muscles.
A net-negative coaching staff would bow down to the opponent in this scenario, allowing their limited roster to get outplayed mano a mano against a group of players who are simply more talented.
A net-positive coaching staff would find creative ways to design advantages for their undermanned team, putting the players in positions to thrive regardless of the talent gap.
Look no further than Kyle Shanahan, one of the coaches Glenn is trying to join in the 0-6-to-playoffs club. The 49ers’ head coach has arguably dealt with more critical injuries than any other coach in his nine-year tenure, but the train keeps chugging no matter who is running his offensive plays.
Under Shanahan, backup quarterback Mac Jones has put up career-best numbers in relief of Brock Purdy over the past four weeks, despite playing without All-Pro tight end George Kittle and All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The 49ers are 4-2 despite having every excuse in the world to lose the majority of their games so far.
Great coaches don’t make excuses or lower their team’s standards due to a perceived lack of talent; they find ways to win with the guys they have. That requires devising imaginative strategies that create advantages for the players through the scheme—something the Jets have struggled to do this year.
That’s a big reason why the Jets are 0-6 with a similar or better roster than many teams in the win column.
It’s time for Glenn to show his value
If Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand can concoct a winning recipe on Sunday despite the Jets’ seemingly long odds against Carolina’s defense, it would be the type of statement they need to reaffirm their potential as value-adding coaches. For now, they don’t look like the type of coaches who elevate their talent.
Glenn needs to begin stacking up these kinds of performances, because at some point, he must show that he adds value to the Jets. So far, Glenn and his staff have succumbed to the constraints placed upon them, making them a net-negative in a league filled with innovative coaches.
Nobody expected this Jets roster to be in the Super Bowl (despite Glenn straw-manning that as the supposed bar placed upon them), but they weren’t supposed to be an uncompetitive 0-6 team, either. This isn’t a roster that was expected to tank for the No. 1 pick. There are enough pieces in the building for New York’s coaches to find creative ways to exceed the team’s very low expectations; if they’re capable, that is.
Carolina is the perfect opponent for Glenn to show that he can coach the Jets to exceed expectations. Few people will expect the Jets to even score a touchdown on Sunday. If Glenn’s team comes out with an innovative game plan that leads to surprisingly great offensive results, it could be the first step in shifting the narrative on Glenn’s coaching.
Buried in an 0-6 hole with his team looking like anything but a professional football operation for much of those six games, Glenn’s excuses for league-worst play are spent. The Jets’ roster isn’t thin enough to justify that level of performance.
Carolina is favored by just 1.5 points on Sunday. Even with Wilson’s potential absence, this is not a game that Glenn should be excused for losing—not after already lowering his stock as far as he has. He’s out of leeway. If Glenn is the type of coach who gets his team to play above expectations, he’ll find a way to pull off the win at home and begin stockpiling more expectation-beating performances throughout the year.
Remember, by the end of their respective debut seasons, Campbell and Shanahan’s teams more or less performed exactly as they were expected to based on ATS plus-minus. Right now, Glenn is far behind that level, so he has to get the Jets to exceed expectations over the next 11 games to pull his season-long performance up to Campbell and Shanahan’s level.
If Glenn can’t do that, he shouldn’t be mentioned alongside Campbell and Shanahan as a coach capable of overcoming such a bad start to a tenure. Excuses will be made regarding the roster’s overall talent, the quarterback position, and the Jets’ early stage in the rebuild, but if a coach cannot get his team to merely play up to expectations until the front office gets multiple years to build a perfect roster, then what value does the coach actually bring to the table?
Simply put, it’s time for Glenn to start showing some value on gameday.
