Across months and months of mock drafts, comment-section warfare, and quote tweets, a base expectation emerges for each team in the NFL draft.

It becomes widely accepted that each team is focusing on a select handful of prospects. If you deviate from that consensus, you are seen as an outcast who should be banished from the football webspace, relegated to talk only about the CFL for all of eternity.

Allow us to introduce three 2026 first-round possibilities for the New York Jets that would elicit this sort of reaction from other Jets fans if mentioned in an online space.

1. Selecting WR Carnell Tate at No. 2

The Jets’ second-overall-pick debate has been whittled down to Ohio State’s Arvell Reese and Texas Tech’s David Bailey, it seems. Should the Jets take the jack-of-all-trades defensive weapon, or the pure pass rusher?

If there is a dark horse in the conversation, it’s Miami defensive end Rueben Bain, who was similarly dominant in college to Reese and Bailey, but dropped out of the conversation after the combine revealed he has T. rex arms.

Not enough people are considering that Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate could very well be in the conversation.

After all, wide receiver is arguably the Jets’ biggest need outside of quarterback. It’s a premium, offensive position where the Jets have essentially no depth and no reliable second starter in a unit that essentially requires three starters in today’s 11-personnel-heavy NFL.

Tate draws opinions all over the map. Many see him as the top receiver in the class, while some might have him as low as third or even fourth.

But there is plenty of data suggesting Tate should be viewed as a prospect special enough to warrant the second overall pick. In our analysis of college metrics that have historically correlated with NFL success for first-round prospects, Tate measured in with a profile that has only been bested by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja’Marr Chase since 2018.

Tate exceeded the ideal benchmarks in each of the four college metrics that we found correlated the closest with NFL success: yards per route run, overall Pro Football Focus grade, contested catch rate, and behind-the-line-of-scrimmage target rate (with a lower rate being more favorable). Since 2018, the only other prospects to hit the ideal benchmark in all four of those categories were Chase, Smith-Njigba, and Garrett Wilson.

The odds are very strong that Tate will go on to become an elite wide receiver in the NFL.

That should be enough to warrant the second overall choice.

2. Selecting Oregon S Dillon Thieneman at No. 16

At first glance, safety seems like a position the Jets will not prioritize in the draft. They traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, signed Dane Belton, and re-signed Andre Cisco to create a solid four-deep room with Malachi Moore.

But in a league where the “Best Player Available” mentality reigns supreme, are the Jets truly solidified enough at safety to rule out the position in the event that a safety is their BPA in the first round?

Fitzpatrick will be 30 this year; there is no telling if he will hit a wall. And while the Belton-versus-Moore competition should be fascinating in the summer, neither player is guaranteed to be a stud at the position. Belton is a former fourth-round pick who has yet to establish himself as a quality starter entering Year 5. Moore was a fourth-round pick last season, and he showed promise, but remains an unknown.

Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman could easily be the Jets’ BPA when they come on the clock at No. 16. He offers a rare combination of elite college production and an elite athletic profile at a young age.

Thieneman posted a 91.0 overall defensive grade at PFF in 2025, leading Power Four safeties, anchored by his also-best 91.1 coverage grade. Thieneman was a lockdown coverage defender, allowing just 145 yards across 15 games, which is less than 10 yards per game.

To boot, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.35 seconds, adding a 41-inch vertical jump for good measure. Just 21 years old after playing the required minimum of three college seasons, Thieneman is trending up.

The Jets’ head coach is a former defensive back. The team intercepted zero passes last season.

Fans don’t want to admit it, because it is, understandably, an extremely unexciting route compared to other options, but Thieneman is absolutely in play for New York at No. 16 overall.

3. Trading up for Ty Simpson

The Ty Simpson-to-New York buzz continues to grow after the Jets hosted the Alabama product for a private workout.

Many believe Simpson will only come into play for the Jets if he slips to the second round, where New York can take him with the first pick of Day 2 (33rd overall). Some would be on board with the Jets trading back into the late-first for Simpson.

But what if the Jets move up for Simpson?

It seems like a stretch that the Jets will fall hard enough for Simpson to take him second overall instead of a player like Tate, Reese, or Bailey. But is it far-fetched for them to be smitten enough to move up from No. 16 to secure his services?

There are multiple teams between the Jets’ second and 16th picks who could consider taking Simpson if they are high on him.

The Miami Dolphins (No. 11) signed Malik Willis to a contract with $45 million guaranteed, but it is not the type of deal that will preclude them from adding a second lottery ticket; the Atlanta Falcons took this route in 2024 after signing Kirk Cousins to a far more lucrative deal.

The Los Angeles Rams (No. 13) may be thinking about their future after Matthew Stafford turned 38 in February. An Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love situation may appeal to them, especially since they had a second first-round pick that they already used to bolster their short-term title hopes by trading it for cornerback Trent McDuffie.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 15) could begin thinking about their future at quarterback. Baker Mayfield is entering the final year of his three-year, $100 million contract. There are reports of extension talks, but until it’s set in stone, the Bucs don’t have a 2027 starting quarterback. Mayfield is coming off a significantly declined season after losing former offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Could the Bucs look to turn the page?

If the Jets are sold on Simpson, they may be tempted to jump the aforementioned three teams to ensure they land him.

Will the Jets be sold enough on Simpson to do that? Should they be? Those questions have speculative answers at this point, but at the very least, the possibility of a trade-up shouldn’t be ruled out.

Nothing should be considered too crazy when it comes to projecting the NFL draft.