When discussing the New York Jets’ No. 2 overall pick, one argument keeps getting brought up: that David Bailey is the “safer” choice over Arvell Reese.

The argument has come up too many times, forcing this article into existence as we inch closer to the NFL draft. While there is a reasonable case to be made for Bailey at No. 2, calling him the safer option over Reese is just nonsensical.

Why David Bailey is not ‘safer’ than Arvell Reese

Let’s make one thing clear: every NFL draft pick is a projection. Even the so-called “generational” prospects don’t work out as often as folks think. Draft weekend is filled with educated bets; that’s the way to put it.

Bailey’s resume is highly enticing. He was the most polished pass rusher in college football last season, leading the FBS with 14.5 sacks while earning a 93.3 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, which led all edge rushers in college football.

By no means is he the more secure option, though.

Bailey is not a three-down player right now. Much like when the Jets selected Will McDonald in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, Bailey is excellent against the pass but projects as a liability against the run in the pros.

That alone limits his impact.

Add in the fact that he will be 23 years old by Week 1 of his rookie season, and that is not a “safe” prospect whatsoever. There is no guarantee his run defense will develop to an NFL level. It hasn’t developed for McDonald, who profiled similarly out of college and was also 23 by the start of his rookie year. It’s also fair to question how much upside he possesses as a pass-rusher.

Reese, on the other hand, offers both a high floor and a far more intriguing ceiling.

Let’s start with the floor. Contrary to popular belief, Reese has a clear role at the next level, regardless of how his pass-rush ability develops. His sideline-to-sideline speed as an off-ball linebacker, paired with excellent instincts in the run game and surefire tackling ability, has the makings of a starting-caliber off-ball LB. During the 2025 season, he missed just 5.3% of his tackles, totaling four missed tackles on nearly 70 stops.

Then there’s the versatility. Reese can line up off-ball, attack the A-gap, rush off the edge, and handle multiple assignments while still holding his own.

And now, the ceiling.

Reese is just 20 years old, already playing with unmatched strength and physicality. He recorded eight sacks and 23 pressures on just 104 pass-rush snaps, and did so while still learning his position. Speaking with ESPN, he admitted that Ohio State did not work on his pass-rush moves with him at all in practice and that he was teaching himself and learning on the fly. What he flashed last season was all instinct and raw ability.

While it may feel like it on the surface, Bailey is not the safer prospect. It is evident in a surplus of facets that the Jets must select the player who gives them a much stronger floor and ceiling.