Not all production in the NFL is equal.

Just ask the New York Jets when it comes to former first-round pick Will McDonald. The former Iowa State product has recorded 21.5 sacks in his first three years with the team, including 18.5 in the last two years.

But a deeper look into those sacks and the expectations surrounding McDonald tells a different story, even for a player the Jets chose to exercise the fifth-year option for.

New York’s latest decision will tie McDonald to the Jets for the next two years. Now, the onus is on McDonald to prove he can be more than just a situational pass rusher. But as offseason workouts kick off in Florham Park, one lingering question remains:

What are fair expectations for a McDonald’s breakout in 2026?

Fifth-year option breakdown

By accepting his fifth-year option, the Jets are in line to pay McDonald $14.5 million in 2027. This coming season, his cap hit will be $5.2 million.

The next two seasons will be key for the soon-to-be 27-year-old. It goes without saying that sacks are valuable in the NFL, but being an all-around edge rusher is the difference between a player making over $20 million per year and being limited to a situational role.

A good example of this is Leonard Floyd. The former ninth overall pick has recorded 70 sacks in 12 seasons, a strong number that shows his ability to get after the quarterback. He’s also won a Super Bowl.

But in his 10 years, Floyd has played for five teams. His contracts have never exceeded $16 million per year. The most he’s ever gotten was a four-year, $64 million deal with the Los Angeles Rams in 2021. It was a contract that lasted just two seasons.

Another example is McDonald’s former Jets teammate, Bryce Huff. After a 10-sack season for New York in 2023, Huff landed a three-year, $51.1 million contract with the Eagles, worth over $17 million per year.

But Huff’s poor all-around play prompted Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to drop him from the lineup. By the playoffs, Huff was a healthy scratch. Huff was traded to San Francisco for a conditional fifth-round pick after the season, and he has since retired.

McDonald could be facing a similar outlook to Floyd and Huff if his run defense doesn’t improve in 2026.

McDonald’s expectations

The good news for the Jets is that McDonald has shown the desire to be more than just a situational pass rusher.

“The first thing that he said when he came to my office was he really wants to be good,” Glenn told reporters last offseason. “So now he wants to be coached how to be able to do that. I said the other day, and I’m not sure you guys really understood what I was saying, I kept saying ‘It’s coaching.’ That’s what I was talking about.

“He wants to be coached, he wants to be coached hard, and he wants to be coached how to do it the right way. And our guys are going to continue to do that with him.”

The rough news is that his frame and poor production against the run leave many to wonder if he can ever be a three-down edge rusher.

The reality is, until McDonald shows he can be trusted to consistently stop the run, the Jets are going to have to spend money on other edge rushers to fill that role for them.

It’s precisely what the team did this offseason. Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare were signed to contracts worth over $10 million to stabilize the edge rusher room.

It leaves the Jets’ expectations for McDonald rather simple. Recording 10 sacks won’t be enough; he has to show he can be an every-down player who won’t be a liability in run defense.

If he can do that, New York will have the chance to retain a first-round player instead of constantly starting over at a key position of value. That’s something New York cannot afford, even with their steep draft capital.

And it’s entirely up to McDonald to prove it.