Two of the eight NFL teams that finished fourth in their division in 2024 went on to win their divisions in 2025: the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears.
As much as fans and analysts like to stick to the status quo that rebuilds are expected to be multi-year slogs, it isn’t uncommon for last-place teams to experience overnight turnarounds. That’s just the nature of the league, and the game in general.
Football is a sport that encourages parity through its inherent randomness. The NFL’s salary cap, fixed draft order, and 17-game schedule further increase season-to-season variance.
It should be expected that multiple last-place teams from the 2025 season will have excellent years in 2026, and that at least one will win their division. So, without further ado, let’s rank those teams based on their chances of winning a division title.
Where do the New York Jets rank?
8. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ starting quarterback is expected to be Jacoby Brissett… who hasn’t even shown up yet as he holds out for a new contract. Each of their three division rivals is currently listed among the top five Super Bowl favorites. That includes the top two favorites, the Rams and the Seahawks.
Forget about it.
7. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have the league’s most terrifying defensive player in Myles Garrett, and a great defense overall.
But when your quarterback options are Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders in a division where you have to outpace Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, a first-place finish is not in the cards.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
While the Raiders should look more competent in 2026 thanks to their coaching staff overhaul and some major free agent additions, they remain a rebuilding team that does not expect to compete until 2027.
Las Vegas is in the midst of a transitional stage at quarterback, with a decrepit Kirk Cousins expected to hold the fort down for a rookie Fernando Mendoza. That just won’t be enough in a division with Justin Herbert, the vaunted Broncos defense, and the Chiefs (assuming Patrick Mahomes returns early in the year).
5. New York Jets
New York can be placed in a similar boat to Las Vegas. The Jets figure to play far more respectable football after drastically revamping their coaching staff and plugging a plethora of roster holes, but they are still a step or two away from outpacing their proven division rivals over a 17-game slate.
With a bridge quarterback in Geno Smith, the Jets will have a hard time keeping up with Josh Allen’s Bills or Drake Maye’s Patriots over four-plus months. That’s not to say that New York cannot steal a game or two against those teams, but it’s difficult to imagine the Jets’ Smith-led offense being explosive enough on a weekly basis to accumulate the 11+ victories that will be needed (at minimum) to win this division.
However, with the Patriots being a strong regression candidate after facing a historically weak schedule in 2025, and with the Dolphins projecting to be a total non-factor, the Jets may have a smoother path to second place than many expect. From there, a couple of bad bounces for the Bills might be all it takes for New York to shock the world.
All of that is still incredibly unlikely, but it’s a bit easier to envision than the likes of Arizona, Cleveland, or Las Vegas winning their divisions, given how much more daunting their competition is.
4. Tennessee Titans
The strength of Tennessee’s overall roster isn’t too dissimilar to the Jets’, but the Titans have something going for them that New York does not: a young quarterback who could break out. That gives the Titans a much higher ceiling.
Plus, the AFC South is known for seeing plenty of turnover from year to year; nobody has dominated this division for an extended stretch since Peyton Manning was still in Indy. If Cam Ward is the real deal, Tennessee should give Jacksonville and Houston a run for their money.
In Week 1, though, Ward could still be figuring things out as he plays his first game in a new offensive scheme, giving the Jets an opportunity to strike.
3. New York Giants
Like the Titans, it’d be a stretch to say the Giants’ roster is substantially better than the Jets’ on paper, but Big Blue has an ascending young quarterback, and Gang Green does not, so it’s the Giants who have a higher ceiling.
The Giants also have one of the most proven head coaches in the NFL, while the Jets have a coach with three wins.
Until the Eagles went back-to-back over the last two years, there was a new NFC East champion for 20 consecutive seasons (2005-24). The Giants have a realistic chance to restart that trend.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints rank this highly primarily because they play in the NFL’s weakest division. The NFC South was won by an 8-9 Panthers team last season. New Orleans started out 1-8 and still finished just two games back of the title.
Saints fans are hoping the team can build on its late-season run led by rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. New Orleans went 5-4 across his nine starts, with Shough posting a 91.3 passer rating and a 48.8 QBR.
Here are the caveats: Shough is already 26 years old, and all five of his wins came against teams with losing records. Even three of his four losses were against losing teams.
It’s up in the air whether the Saints are a true breakout candidate or if they merely had a fluky late-season run against a soft schedule, but because the NFC South is so weak, they have a great chance of winning their division regardless.
1. Detroit Lions
There isn’t much debate as to who deserves the No. 1 spot.
Detroit finished last in a crowded NFC North with a 9-8 record. Their +68 point differential was not only the best in their division, but it was equal to the other three teams combined.
Coming off four straight winning seasons with most of their core players intact, there is little reason not to expect the Lions to make another serious push for the NFC North title.
